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11/09/2014 | Argentina- Rural Capitals, Big-Time Problems

Filipe R. Campante

Moving Argentina’s Capital From Buenos Aires Could Make Things Worse

 

WHILE the threat of another default still looms in Argentina, the country has made headlines for another reason: A growing number of its leaders, including President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, are starting to line up behind a proposal to move the capital from Buenos Aires to the much smaller (and reportedly sleepy) city of Santiago del Estero, in the middle-north of the country.

Mrs. Kirchner and others say the move would heal the divide between Buenos Aires, the cosmopolitan metropolis of more than 12 million people, and the hinterlands. But as attractive an idea as it might be on the surface, moving the capital could in fact make things worse for the beleaguered country.

Moving a capital city is more common than many people think. Over the last century, there has been an average of one move every six years, including to Brasília, Brazil (from Rio de Janeiro); Astana, Kazakhstan (from Almaty); and Naypyidaw, Myanmar (from Yangon). Many other countries have considered it, including Argentina itself in the 1980s, or still are, like South Korea.

The explicit reasons for these moves range from the congestion problems in an overcrowded capital — one reason claimed by the Nigerian government in moving its capital from Lagos to Abuja in 1991 — to the need for developing backward regions or balancing regional rivalries. Other governments cite the need to protect against foreign threats, whether real or largely imaginary.

Just below the surface, however, another threat often looms: the specter of political upheaval. The history of political rebellions underscores the special role played by the capital city in deciding their fate. A small mob in the capital can shake the government in a way that much larger crowds farther away cannot. It follows, then, that a shaky government would consider moving its capital away from a major population center to an isolated, planned refuge — just as the junta in Myanmar did in relocating from Yangon, a boisterous city.

Argentina is not on the brink of civil war or a military coup, of course, and its government is worlds away from the junta of Myanmar — or of yesteryear’s Argentina, for that matter. Still, the country does have a history of turmoil, and the streets of Buenos Aires have often been a major player in political crises, even in recent years. Politicians have felt the pressure, including in their personal and family lives, and many Santiago del Estero proponents may well be aware of that history.

But as I have found in recent research with Quoc-Anh Do of Sciences Po in Paris and Bernardo Guimaraes of the São Paulo School of Economics in Brazil, moving a capital to shore up a government’s stability and standing can have dangerous side effects: In autocratic states and relatively fragile democracies, governments ensconced in more isolated capitals are less effective, less responsive, more corrupt and less able or willing to sustain the rule of law.

Why is that so? Being away from the masses may protect regimes from the threat of violent removal — but it also reduces the degree of accountability they face, and their incentives to behave well.

Nor is this a problem just for unelected regimes and shaky democracies. In other research, Professor Do and I have shown that isolated state capitals in the United States — Albany and Springfield, Ill., among others — are also associated with worse governance.

Politicians in New York and Illinois do not fear their lives being taken by revolutions, of course. But the news media and voters are less interested in covering and knowing about them when they are far from the states’ urban centers. When the cat is away, it seems, the mice can go on taking their bribes.

We can expect the same thing if Argentina moves its capital from the bright lights of Buenos Aires to the isolated plains around Santiago del Estero. While Argentina is hardly a model of good governance today, moving away from the big city’s voluble news media and its educated and cosmopolitan population is unlikely to help.

To be sure, there may be mitigating factors. Take Argentina’s neighbor Brazil. Until the 1960s, the two countries had parallel histories of political instability, but their paths diverged when the Brazilian government relocated to faraway Brasília, where it has since enjoyed a more stable political system. (Whether the move was part of the reason for the stability, or merely a coincidence, is hard to say, of course.)

The power of the Buenos Aires streets may help keep politicians on their toes, but on the other hand this does not seem like the kind of accountability that is most conducive to institutional development. Political turmoil is costly, and so the protection afforded by an isolated capital might not be an entirely bad thing, regardless of the motivations behind the proposed move.

Still, Argentines should be careful in considering the implications of the idea of moving the capital to Santiago del Estero. While a dramatic move might be appealing as a fresh start, it could end up aggravating the challenges of governing the country. Capitals, like flags, are symbols, but their choice has very real consequences.


NY Times (Estados Unidos)

 


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