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06/11/2014 | Will Argentina settle with holdouts in 2015?

Johanna Bennett

Over the weekend, two of Argentina’s largest newspapers (La Nacion and Clarin) reported that the government has plans to change laws so it can reach a settlement with holdout investors in the country’s ongoing debt drama.

 

Eurasia Group strategist Daniel Kerner warns investors to take these reports “with a grain of salt,” given that both newspapers are opposition publications. As he writes:
…it seems highly unlikely that the officials that have real decision-making power over these issues-President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner and Economy Minister Axel Kicillof–would leak sensitive information on this matter through these papers. Moreover, their journalists do not have real access to key members of the economic team, or to the president.

Argentina is in a legal turmoil with hedge fund managers and other investors who refuse to accept terms for the restructuring of a 2001 debt default. The hedge funds sued in U.S. court and won, but the matter has yet to be resolved. Argentina recently passed legislation that returned legal jurisdiction on its U.S. bonds to Argentina.

In short, it remains a big, hot mess. And earlier this week, Argentina president Cristina Kirchner warned that relations with the U.S. could worsen because of ties that a White House appointee – Nancy Soderberg — has to hedge funds doing battle with Argentina.
Kerner agrees the government will likely try to restart negotiations next year, but says a deal will be hard to achieve “as President Kirchner is unlikely to pay the political cost of settling with holdouts for an amount close to what they obtained in the ruling.” He added:

The government continues to raise the stakes on this issue. Official rhetoric remains fairly inflammatory and focused on stating that the ruling is unfair and impossible to pay, and that a fair outcome is for Argentina to pay the terms of the restructuring (CFK sent a pretty combative letter to US President Barack Obama on 31 October, for example). It seems hard to see CFK completely turning around next year.

Barrons Blog (Estados Unidos)

 


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