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19/07/2006 | IRAN - Using the Israeli-Hezbollah Conflict Advantageously

Stratfor Staff

The United States on July 18 called on Iran and Syria to get Hezbollah to halt its rocket attacks against Israel. This is what Iran was hoping would happen when it got its Lebanese Shiite Islamist proxy to abduct the Israeli soldiers: that it would be able to enhance its sphere of influence in the region. The Arab states that are horrified by what they see as an Iranian invasion of their geopolitical turf will now try to work with Washington to minimize the extent to which Tehran can gain influence.

 

Washington on July 18 tried to defuse the Israeli-Hezbollah crisis by asking Iran and Syria to get Hezbollah to stop firing missiles at Israel. White House spokesman Tony Snow told journalists that Iran and Syria need to be "using their influence to get Hezbollah to stop firing rockets and return the [Israeli] soldiers."

Although the Bush administration very early on in the conflict called on Damascus to rein in Hezbollah, this is the first time the United States has asked for Iranian involvement in the matter. This move is in keeping with Iran's strategy, aimed at gaining entry into a dispute involving Israel in order to enhance its credentials as a leader of the Muslims in the Middle East. That said, the United States and the Arab states will try to limit the extent to which Iran will be able to play a role in this conflict and in the region in the future.

The Arab states are well aware of Iranian ambitions, which is why they are deeply concerned about the developing situation in Lebanon and how it benefits Tehran. This is why the Saudis and others are, for the first time, openly criticizing Hezbollah. Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal said, "We support the Lebanese government spreading control over all of its territory ... The decision of war and peace belongs to the legitimate authorities, not any other party -- otherwise there will be chaos." He added that Riyadh's stance is that any intervention in the situation should be in the Arab countries' interests. He then said the situation is a "real catastrophe" that no one is doing anything to stop. Here the Saudi leader was not referring to the Israeli bombing, but was hinting at the Iranian/Shiite ability to invade Arab/Sunni geopolitical space.

That said, the Saudis and the other Arabs realize that Iran -- given its relationship with Hezbollah -- will have to be brought into the diplomatic process. The Saudis do not want to see Washington bypass the Arab states and deal with Iran/Syria directly. Instead, they would want to be the conduit through which the United States deals with the Iranians.

What Iran is hoping to get out of the current crisis is the ability to move forward in its bid to assume leadership of the Muslim Middle East by exploiting the Israeli-Palestinian issue. The Hezbollah-generated crisis gives the Iranians the opportunity to do this, and they are hoping they will be able use their influence in Syria and Lebanon to help defuse the situation and thus consolidate their position as a player in the region.
Meanwhile, Iran also has been trying to use the crisis to try and split the Arab states. Therefore, Tehran is counting on the fighting to go on long enough to demonstrate that the Arabs cannot deliver. The Arab states are in a tight spot. They cannot afford to have Hezbollah annihilated by Israel while they stand by, and they do not want Iran to have a say in how this crisis is settled. Eventually, Tehran hopes the Hezbollah-Hamas dynamic will allow it to overcome the Sunni-Shiite tensions keeping it from its ambition of being the regional powerhouse.

Iran is at the beginning of this process, and there are no guarantees things will fall into place in accordance with its expectations. However, the Iranian moves to use Hezbollah against Israel have exacerbated the Sunni-Shiite tensions in the region.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


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