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31/03/2015 | Potential Presidential Candidates Play The 2016 Waiting Game

Michael Falcone

The looming 2016 presidential campaign has no shortage of putative contestants, from the big-name players like Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton to the relative unknowns like neurosurgeon Ben Carson and former Maryland Gov. Bob Ehrlich.

 

  • WE KNOW THEY'RE RUNNING - SO WHY DON'T THEY JUST SAY SO? The looming 2016 presidential campaign has no shortage of putative contestants, from the big-name players like Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton to the relative unknowns like neurosurgeon Ben Carson and former Maryland Gov. Bob Ehrlich. Most of them are talking and acting like candidates, making frequent trips to early primary states, raising money for their political organizations, lining up campaign staff, and courting support from local Republicans and key activist groups. But so far, only one has announced he's running for president: Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas. So what's causing the other current contestants to wait? ABC's CHRIS GOOD breaks it down: http://abcn.ws/1N97EQh
  • BIG-TIMERS DON'T NEED TO DECLARE: For the likes of Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush, perceived frontrunners whose last names precede them, there's less advantage to jumping in early. Primary voters already know who they are, so the media buzz of a campaign announcement isn't as valuable as it is for someone like Cruz.
  • IT'S ABOUT THE MONEY: Candidates want to post the biggest fundraising totals they can, especially early in a campaign, in order to appear strong, impress donors and prove they're viable. For that reason, it makes sense to wait until the beginning of a quarter to start raising money. Once you're a candidate, you're bound to federal campaign-money restrictions, and you can't solicit donations over the $5,200 limit if that money will be used to support your candidacy. But until then, you can get away with a little bit more. Jeb Bush, for instance, reportedly raised money for the super PAC that will eventually back his candidacy, appearing at a $25,000-per-couple fundraiser this week. Once he becomes a presidential candidate, he must officially cut ties with the super PAC - and only ask for donations of $5,200 or less, according to the federal limit.
  • AVOIDING THE MICROSCOPE - FOR NOW: Once a candidate announces, the media turns on the bright lights, turning heightened attention to a candidate's policies and record. That's one deterrent from getting in. "Better-known candidates tend to wait as long as possible to avoid full-on media scrutiny and regulatory oversight," said Eric Fehrnstrom, a senior adviser to Romney on his presidential runs.
  • SOME PRESIDENTIAL RACES START EARLIER THAN OTHERS: In 2008, when the White House was similarly about to be vacated by a second-term president, Hillary Clinton announced her campaign in January 2007, while then-senator Barack Obama and Mitt Romney announced theirs in February. In 2012, things happened a bit later, with Newt Gingrich entering in May and Romney in June. Things used to get underway much, much later. Sen. Eugene McCarthy didn't announce his 1968 presidential campaign until November 1967. http://abcn.ws/1N97EQh

    

    ABC News (Estados Unidos)

     



     
    Center for the Study of the Presidency
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