The killing follows the July 27 resignation of 18 TFG Cabinet members in protest of Ethiopian involvement in Somalia, which the members termed an obstacle to peace. Regardless of who backed the assassination -- whether Islamists or Ethiopians -- events in Somalia are provoking national security concerns in Ethiopia and Eritrea and among Somalian Islamists such that a war involving all three is becoming increasingly hard to avoid.


Somalian Transitional Federal Government's (TFG) constitution and federalism minister, Abdallah Deerow Isaaq, was killed July 28 after leaving Friday prayers at a mosque in Baidoa, Somalia. The killing follows the July 27 resignation of 18 TFG Cabinet members in protest of Ethiopian involvement in Somalia, which the members termed an obstacle to peace.

Regardless of who backed the assassination -- whether Islamists or Ethiopians -- the conflict in Somalia is provoking national security concerns in Ethiopia and Eritrea and among Somalian Islamists, limiting alternatives to war.

Isaaq's assassination took place despite the presence of 3,000 Ethiopian troops providing security in and around Baidoa, exposing a false sense of security on the part of the interim government. The killing will undermine the TFG in that more of its members will now fear for their personal safety.

If carried out by Somalian Islamists, the assassination constitutes a direct challenge to the security guarantees provided by Ethiopia. The Islamists could have been emboldened by July 26 and July 28 shipments of arms off-loaded at Mogadishu airport from an Ilyushin-76 chartered by Eritrea.

Many Somalians see Ethiopians as an obstacle to peace in Somalia, since the longer Ethiopia props up the TFG, the longer the interim government is seen as a mere pawn of Ethiopia, thus preventing Somalia's factions from reaching a legitimate peace deal. But Ethiopia cannot easily back down from its support for the TFG. Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has clearly said the threat of Islamists -- and in particular Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys -- holding power in Somalia is an intolerable threat to the national security of Ethiopia, which has long struggled for internal and regional stability.

Further stiffening Ethiopia's resolve not to back down in Somalia is the support Ethiopia's archenemy, Eritrea, has offered to the Islamists. Ethiopian-Eritrean tensions were already simmering following the two nations' 1998-2000 border war. The off-loading of weapons for the Islamists from the plane chartered by Eritrea will, in Ethiopia's eyes, justify its continued intervention in Somalia. To further justify its intervention, Ethiopia might also have backed Isaaq's assassination to provoke a power vacuum Ethiopia can point at to justify its limited intervention in Somalia aimed at protecting Ethiopian national security.

The conflict in Somalia is increasingly putting Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalian Islamists in a position where backing down from conflict will be very difficult due to each of the three parties' security concerns. Thus, the hostilities that began in March over law-and-order concerns in Mogadishu now threaten to culminate in a Horn of Africa-wide conflict.