Funds stolen from state-owned companies may have bought President Rousseff’s re-election.
Former
Brazilian presidential candidate Aécio Neves speaks for a lot of his
compatriots when he says President Dilma Rousseff’s
Workers’ Party (PT) used stolen funds to defeat him in Brazil’s runoff
presidential election in October.
In
an interview in Lima last month I asked Mr. Neves—who is president of the
Social Democracy Party of Brazil (PSDB)—whether he lost the election because
the socialism of the hard-left Ms. Rousseff had greater appeal to Brazilians
than his more market-oriented platform.
He
denied the possibility. He lost, he told me, because of “organized crime.”
Mr.
Neves, a former governor of the state of Minas Gerais, wasn’t referring to the
mafia. He was talking about an alleged skimming operation at the
government-owned oil company Petróleo
Brasileiro SA (Petrobras). Prosecutors allege that Petrobras
contractors were permitted to pad their contracts and remit the excess as
kickbacks to the oil company, which passed hundreds of millions of dollars to
politicians and, importantly, the PT.
The
party spent lavishly to win the election, and it now looks like it was able to
do so because of the millions in allegedly illegal contributions that flowed
from the oil company. If true, this was indeed a crime, and very well
organized.
The
scandal keeps growing. It’s as if prosecutors pulled on a loose string and a
blanket covering not just one dirty deal but dozens began to unravel. Yet as
the details unfold—allegedly involving hundreds of millions of dollars, stolen
from not only Petrobras but also from other state-owned enterprises—there is a
danger that Brazil will miss the most important lesson.
Law
enforcement must hold individuals accountable, but the state’s oversize role in
the economy is what led to this mess. Replacing the players with individuals who
seem more honest will not eliminate the cause of corruption.
State-owned
companies are controlled by the political class. The temptation to use the
companies like cookie jars, particularly when commodity prices are booming and
large quantities of money are sloshing around, will always be great. To expect
politicians not to try to get at those resources is like trusting a fox to
guard a fattened hen.
Whether
Ms. Rousseff is being honest when she says she did not know about the kickback
scheme matters little to most Brazilians. Her problem, as Mr. Neves implies, is
that the allegations have put the legitimacy of her narrow victory—by a margin
of around 3%—in doubt. Her party is fighting the charges but meanwhile Ms.
Rousseff is in no shape to lead.
On
March 15 an estimated million and a half Brazilians turned out on the nation’s
streets to protest her government. In a mid-March Datafolha poll 62% of
respondents rated Ms. Rousseff’s government as “bad” or “terrible.”
In
a roaring economy, the public reaction to the revelations might be different.
But this political crisis couldn’t come at worse time for the Brazilian
pocketbook. Inflation is topping 8%, the economy did not grow in 2014, and in
2015 could shrink by almost 2%, according to CIBC World Markets.
Ms.
Rousseff has brought in well-respected, Chicago-trained economist Joaquim Levy
to head the finance ministry. His plan calls for a return to fiscal discipline,
but he needs the help of PT allies—like the powerful Brazilian Democratic
Movement Party (PMDB)—in Congress. They have been reluctant—and when they go
along, Ms. Rousseff is having to bear the political cost of the adjustment. So
even if Mr. Levy is successful, Ms. Rousseff’s popularity may not recover.
The
scandal is likely to drag on because of its size and complexity. Last month
prosecutors accused Workers’ Party treasurer João Vaccari of soliciting those
“donations” to the party. In testimony before a congressional committee last
week, Mr. Vaccari denied any wrongdoing.
One
problem may have been that a procurement process closed to international
bidders invited collusion. Prosecutors have charged four former Petrobras
executives and nearly two dozen other individuals at a handful of large
Brazilian engineering firms with money laundering and corruption. Almost 50
politicians from a variety of political parties are also under investigation.
The
outcry against corruption is an indication of the vibrancy of Brazilian civil
society. The judiciary’s independence is also good news. As the Journal’s Will Connors
and Luciana Magalhaes reported on April 6, the small team of prosecutors is
well trained. Top-notch investigative work has gone forward despite the
powerful individuals it touches. In a country that has struggled with the rule
of law, this is big.
But
it’s not enough. As Rafael Schechtman, a partner at the Rio-based energy
consulting firm CBIE, told me last week, “when the political class is involved
in running the companies, then corruption becomes institutionalized.” Punishing
the crooks is a necessary but insufficient response to what is essentially a
governance problem caused by government ownership.
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