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02/08/2006 | SOMALIA - Islamists and Clan Politics

Stratfor Staff

Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys, leader of the Supreme Islamic Council of Somalia, said Aug. 1 that he has taken control of the central Somalian regions of Mugud and Galguduud.

 

Though appearing to expand Aweys' prominence and base of control beyond southern Somalia and the city of Mogadishu, the move -- an alignment along clan loyalties -- actually reflects a continuation of traditional Somalian politics.

Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys announced Aug. 1 that his Supreme Islamic Council of Somalia has gained control of the central Somalian regions of Mugud and Galguduud. These regions are home to Habar Gedir clan, to which Aweys belongs.

The move expands the council's control of Somalian territory from Mogadishu in the south into central Somalia. Though the expansion appears to increase Aweys' political prominence, it actually reflects an alignment along clan loyalties, and therefore a continuation of traditional Somalian politics. Establishing a new base in central Somalia also brings Aweys closer to Ethiopia's eastern Ogaden region, which is made up of ethnic Somalis of the Ogadeni clan. This position would be a flash point for Ethiopia, which has long struggled to consolidate its internal security, and would not permit Aweys to stir up trouble among the Ogadenis.

Aweys' expansion aims to demonstrate the Islamist council as a legitimate political actor reflecting the genuine interests of most Somalians, in contrast to the Transitional Federal Government based in Baidoa, which Aweys argues is a construction of foreign malefactors led by Ethiopia.

Alignment along clan loyalties has long been the norm in Somalian politics, and this clan-based system frequently has been manipulated. The 1969-91 government of Mohamed Siad Barre adopted a divide-and-rule approach to Somalia's clans, helping him control the fractious nation and its resources. Clans, in turn, manipulated a weak political environment to advance their political and economic self-interests. In the Mugud and Galguduud regions now claimed by Aweys, clans have clashed over land, water and grazing rights -- the critical economic issues to this region.

Despite Aweys' growing prominence, Somalia remains a fractured state, meaning its politics will continue to be governed by clan loyalties. Aweys has exploited these divisions to gain control in central Somalia via his clan connections. Expanding beyond Habar Gedir-controlled regions to parts further north -- such as the autonomous regions of Puntland and Somaliland -- however, will prove much more difficult, thus exposing Aweys to the disadvantages of divisive clan loyalties.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


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