Political crises and violent protests rocked a number of countries in August, including Guatemala, Nepal, Lebanon and Iraq, where popular unrest threatens to topple the government and overturn the post-2003 political order.
Deadly conflict worsened in
Yemen, Afghanistan and Kashmir, while violence increased in Burundi following
President Nkurunziza’s successful run for a third term, and instability remained
the norm in the Central African Republic where UN peacekeeping efforts faced a
series of setbacks. A border crisis also prompted a dangerous spike in tensions
between Colombia and Venezuela. On a positive note, August saw a peace
agreement in South Sudan, strengthened prospects for political and
constitutional reform in Sri Lanka, and an important political agreement ahead
of October elections in Guinea.
A wave of
anti-establishment protests over the systemic inadequacy of service delivery
has brought Iraq
to the edge of yet more serious conflict, despite Prime Minister Haider
al-Abadi’s introduction of sweeping reforms to halt the deterioration. Crisis Group’s
recent Conflict Alert warns that a sustainable course correction
will be needed if Abadi is to survive politically and Iraq is to avoid what
could become in effect a military takeover. Meanwhile protests against Lebanon’s
political paralysis and the ongoing garbage crisis in Beirut turned violent in
late August when riot police fired tear gas and water cannons on demonstrators.
As discussed in
our latest blog, the clashes, which have left dozens wounded,
increase instability in a country highly polarised along politico-sectarian
fault lines and overwhelmed by over a million Syrian refugees.
Yemen’s
war became potentially even more deadly. The government-in-exile and the
Saudi-led coalition made significant military gains against the Huthi/Saleh
alliance in the south, and are pushing north into Huthi strongholds. The
coalition’s gains could serve as a springboard for a ceasefire and political
talks, as advocated in Crisis Group’s
latest report, but instead both sides now appear to be gearing up
for a battle for the capital Sanaa. In Afghanistan,
a spate of insurgent attacks targeted Kabul, including bombings on 7 August
that inflicted more than 350 casualties including 50 killed. The Afghan
government blamed Pakistan for the violence, as relations between the two
countries reached their worst point since President Ashraf Ghani’s inauguration
last year.
In Central
Africa, Burundi
continued to slide into chaos following President Nkurunziza’s controversial
election to a third term in July. Arbitrary arrests, kidnappings and deadly
attacks on both opposition members and the president’s supporters have
compounded an atmosphere of fear, which not only threatens a return to full
scale civil war but also negatively impacts security in the wider Great Lakes
region. In the Central African
Republic, the UN’s MINUSCA mission was further discredited by a
failed operation to secure Bangui’s PK-5 district and more allegations of
abuses, including against children. As the mission falters, security remains
elusive in significant swathes of the country.
In Latin
America, tensions flared between Colombia and
Venezuela after three Venezuelan soldiers were killed near the
border, allegedly by Colombian paramilitaries according to Venezuela. Further
incidents could destabilise the already fragile border region. Political
tensions escalated in Guatemala
as prosecutors named President Otto Pérez Molina and former Vice President
Roxana Baldetti ringleaders of a major customs fraud scandal. Ongoing
demonstrations calling for the president to resign swelled to over 100,000 on
27 August. As we warn in a
statement, ahead of general elections on 6 September protests could
give way to unrest if the government ignores popular demands for justice and
transparency.
In South
Asia, Nepal
saw widespread protests and deadly clashes between protesters and security
forces over a proposed federal model opposed by several groups who claim it
violates previous agreements on state restructuring and does not address their
aspirations. With national political leaders carrying on the
constitution-drafting process without having begun negotiations with dissenting
groups, there is a risk of intensifying tensions and further violent
confrontation. In Kashmir,
clashes across the Line of Control (LoC) and the Working Boundary dividing
Pakistan and Indian-administered Kashmir again escalated. Nine civilians were
killed and dozens wounded in a shooting between Indian and Pakistani border
guards on 28 August. In Sri Lanka,
the peaceful political shift that began with the January victory of President
Maithripala Sirisena was consolidated following parliamentary elections on 17
August, and with a new national government opening up the possibility of
political and constitutional reforms.
On a positive note in Africa, the
Guinean
government and opposition leaders signed an agreement on electoral preparations
on 20 August, marking a major breakthrough in the country’s prolonged political
deadlock. The opposition however has already cast doubt on its implementation
and long-term viability. Lastly, in a significant step forward,
South Sudan’s
warring parties finally reached an agreement to end the twenty-month conflict
following months of stop-start negotiations. President Salva Kiir and armed
opposition leader Riek Machar announced a permanent ceasefire starting 30
August.
fecha |
Título |
09/07/2020| |
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18/09/2019| |
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30/11/2017| |
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02/03/2017| |
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13/01/2017| |
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05/11/2016| |
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04/10/2016| |
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02/05/2016| |
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30/03/2016| |
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20/03/2016| |
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19/03/2016| |
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17/03/2016| |
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19/02/2016| |
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16/10/2015| |
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16/10/2015| |
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13/10/2015| |
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04/10/2015| |
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29/09/2015| |
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29/09/2015| |
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25/09/2015| |
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25/09/2015| |
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05/09/2015| |
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05/09/2015| |
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05/09/2015| |
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05/09/2015| |
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01/08/2015| |
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01/08/2015| |
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27/07/2015| |
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16/07/2015| |
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25/06/2015| |
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04/06/2015| |
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11/05/2015| |
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07/05/2015| |
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28/04/2015| |
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18/04/2015| |
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17/04/2015| |
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08/04/2015| |
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05/04/2015| |
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05/04/2015| |
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05/04/2015| |
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31/03/2015| |
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31/03/2015| |
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22/03/2015| |
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16/03/2015| |
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16/03/2015| |
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16/03/2015| |
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28/02/2015| |
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10/02/2015| |
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03/02/2015| |
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30/01/2015| |
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28/01/2015| |
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20/01/2015| |
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07/01/2015| |
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23/12/2014| |
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22/12/2014| |
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20/12/2014| |
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18/12/2014| |
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16/12/2014| |
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16/12/2014| |
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10/12/2014| |
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05/12/2014| |
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02/12/2014| |
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09/11/2014| |
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03/11/2014| |
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30/10/2014| |
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30/10/2014| |
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22/10/2014| |
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22/10/2014| |
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18/10/2014| |
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13/10/2014| |
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02/10/2014| |
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01/10/2014| |
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23/09/2014| |
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11/09/2014| |
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09/09/2014| |
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08/09/2014| |
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05/09/2014| |
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21/08/2014| |
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15/08/2014| |
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05/08/2014| |
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03/08/2014| |
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25/07/2014| |
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10/07/2014| |
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21/06/2014| |
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21/06/2014| |
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13/06/2014| |
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22/05/2014| |
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15/05/2014| |
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13/05/2014| |
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29/04/2014| |
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22/04/2014| |
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08/04/2014| |
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08/04/2014| |
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08/04/2014| |
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08/04/2014| |
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03/04/2014| |
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17/02/2014| |
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27/01/2014| |
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23/01/2014| |
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13/01/2014| |
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05/01/2014| |
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26/12/2013| |
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06/11/2013| |
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18/10/2013| |
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17/10/2013| |
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08/10/2013| |
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05/10/2013| |
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01/10/2013| |
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22/09/2013| |
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06/09/2013| |
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03/09/2013| |
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02/09/2013| |
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09/08/2013| |
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09/08/2013| |
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31/07/2013| |
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31/07/2013| |
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28/07/2013| |
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27/06/2013| |
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26/06/2013| |
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22/06/2013| |
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19/06/2013| |
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14/06/2013| |
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05/06/2013| |
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29/05/2013| |
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29/05/2013| |
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21/05/2013| |
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16/05/2013| |
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14/05/2013| |
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13/05/2013| |
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08/05/2013| |
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07/05/2013| |
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06/05/2013| |
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02/05/2013| |
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30/04/2013| |
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27/04/2013| |
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17/04/2013| |
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12/04/2013| |
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11/04/2013| |
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08/04/2013| |
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04/04/2013| |
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02/04/2013| |
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01/04/2013| |
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19/03/2013| |
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13/03/2013| |
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07/03/2013| |
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04/03/2013| |
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04/03/2013| |
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01/03/2013| |
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26/02/2013| |
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20/02/2013| |
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19/02/2013| |
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19/02/2013| |
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18/02/2013| |
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15/02/2013| |
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06/02/2013| |
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04/02/2013| |
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03/02/2013| |
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22/01/2013| |
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18/01/2013| |
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15/01/2013| |
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02/01/2013| |
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02/01/2013| |
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18/12/2012| |
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12/12/2012| |
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05/12/2012| |
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03/12/2012| |
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28/11/2012| |
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28/11/2012| |
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26/11/2012| |
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24/11/2012| |
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22/11/2012| |
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21/11/2012| |
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21/11/2012| |
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12/11/2012| |
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01/11/2012| |
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25/10/2012| |
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19/10/2012| |
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19/10/2012| |
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10/09/2012| |
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06/09/2012| |
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27/08/2012| |
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22/08/2012| |
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22/08/2012| |
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17/08/2012| |
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16/08/2012| |
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14/08/2012| |
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09/08/2012| |
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07/08/2012| |
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03/08/2012| |
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01/08/2012| |
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01/08/2012| |
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01/08/2012| |
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01/08/2012| |
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28/07/2012| |
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28/07/2012| |
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28/07/2012| |
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28/07/2012| |
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27/07/2012| |
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27/07/2012| |
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27/07/2012| |
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27/07/2012| |
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24/07/2012| |
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24/07/2012| |
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24/07/2012| |
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18/07/2012| |
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16/07/2012| |
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13/07/2012| |
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05/07/2012| |
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05/07/2012| |
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05/07/2012| |
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05/07/2012| |
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28/06/2012| |
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26/06/2012| |
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25/06/2012| |
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12/06/2012| |
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12/06/2012| |
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11/06/2012| |
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07/06/2012| |
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19/05/2012| |
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19/05/2012| |
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16/05/2012| |
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10/05/2012| |
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07/05/2012| |
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04/05/2012| |
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02/05/2012| |
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27/04/2012| |
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24/04/2012| |
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23/04/2012| |
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16/04/2012| |
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11/04/2012| |
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06/04/2012| |
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05/04/2012| |
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02/04/2012| |
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01/04/2012| |
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30/03/2012| |
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27/03/2012| |
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21/03/2012| |
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21/03/2012| |
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17/03/2012| |
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17/03/2012| |
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15/03/2012| |
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15/03/2012| |
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06/03/2012| |
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06/03/2012| |
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04/03/2012| |
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04/03/2012| |
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29/02/2012| |
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29/02/2012| |
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29/02/2012| |
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24/02/2012| |
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24/02/2012| |
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24/02/2012| |
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23/02/2012| |
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23/02/2012| |
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23/02/2012| |
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23/02/2012| |
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23/02/2012| |
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23/02/2012| |
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17/02/2012| |
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16/02/2012| |
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03/11/2011| |
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02/11/2011| |
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12/10/2011| |
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11/10/2011| |
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04/10/2011| |
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27/09/2011| |
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27/09/2011| |
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24/09/2011| |
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23/09/2011| |
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15/09/2011| |
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14/09/2011| |
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12/09/2011| |
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09/09/2011| |
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09/09/2011| |
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06/09/2011| |
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06/09/2011| |
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23/08/2011| |
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23/08/2011| |
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23/08/2011| |
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23/08/2011| |
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23/08/2011| |
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23/08/2011| |
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22/08/2011| |
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22/08/2011| |
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14/08/2011| |
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08/08/2011| |
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05/08/2011| |
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05/08/2011| |
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04/08/2011| |
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04/08/2011| |
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29/07/2011| |
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27/07/2011| |
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23/07/2011| |
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22/07/2011| |
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17/07/2011| |
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17/07/2011| |
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07/07/2011| |
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07/07/2011| |
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03/07/2011| |
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03/07/2011| |
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28/06/2011| |
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28/06/2011| |
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16/06/2011| |
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16/06/2011| |
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16/06/2011| |
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16/06/2011| |
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07/06/2011| |
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07/06/2011| |
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31/05/2011| |
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31/05/2011| |
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28/05/2011| |
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28/05/2011| |
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25/05/2011| |
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24/05/2011| |
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24/05/2011| |
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07/05/2011| |
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07/05/2011| |
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06/05/2011| |
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06/05/2011| |
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05/05/2011| |
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05/05/2011| |
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03/05/2011| |
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03/05/2011| |
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02/05/2011| |
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02/05/2011| |
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01/05/2011| |
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01/05/2011| |
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01/05/2011| |
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01/05/2011| |
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22/04/2011| |
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22/04/2011| |
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18/04/2011| |
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18/04/2011| |
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10/04/2011| |
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07/04/2011| |
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07/04/2011| |
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25/03/2011| |
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25/03/2011| |
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25/03/2011| |
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17/03/2011| |
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11/03/2011| |
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22/02/2011| |
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22/02/2011| |
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15/02/2011| |
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15/02/2011| |
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08/02/2011| |
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04/02/2011| |
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04/02/2011| |
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28/01/2011| |
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19/01/2011| |
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13/01/2011| |
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01/01/2011| |
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31/12/2010| |
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23/12/2010| |
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05/12/2010| |
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02/12/2010| |
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28/11/2010| |
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27/11/2010| |
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26/11/2010| |
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22/11/2010| |
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22/11/2010| |
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22/11/2010| |
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18/11/2010| |
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01/11/2010| |
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26/08/2010| |
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26/08/2010| |
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24/08/2010| |
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24/08/2010| |
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06/08/2010| |
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28/06/2010| |
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18/06/2010| |
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16/06/2010| |
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11/06/2010| |
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19/05/2010| |
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02/05/2010| |
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02/05/2010| |
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25/04/2010| |
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04/04/2010| |
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11/03/2010| |
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02/03/2010| |
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18/02/2010| |
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20/11/2009| |
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20/11/2009| |
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06/11/2009| |
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01/11/2009| |
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27/10/2009| |
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22/10/2009| |
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05/09/2009| |
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31/08/2009| |
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27/08/2009| |
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15/08/2009| |
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02/08/2009| |
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02/08/2009| |
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20/07/2009| |
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20/07/2009| |
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18/07/2009| |
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18/07/2009| |
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11/03/2009| |
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11/03/2009| |
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10/03/2009| |
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10/03/2009| |
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10/03/2009| |
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10/03/2009| |
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17/12/2008| |
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14/12/2008| |
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02/10/2008| |
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02/10/2008| |
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24/08/2008| |
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24/08/2008| |
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08/08/2008| |
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08/08/2008| |
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14/05/2008| |
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02/04/2008| |
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02/04/2008| |
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12/01/2008| |
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19/05/2007| |
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19/05/2007| |
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10/05/2007| |
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10/05/2007| |
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03/05/2007| |
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03/05/2007| |
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30/04/2007| |
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30/04/2007| |
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02/04/2007| |
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01/04/2007| |
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29/03/2007| |
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16/03/2007| |
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16/03/2007| |
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05/03/2007| |
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05/03/2007| |
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28/02/2007| |
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26/02/2007| |
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26/02/2007| |
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26/01/2007| |
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26/01/2007| |
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08/01/2007| |
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08/01/2007| |
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15/12/2006| |
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15/12/2006| |
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11/12/2006| |
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11/12/2006| |
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11/12/2006| |
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11/12/2006| |
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28/11/2006| |
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28/11/2006| |
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24/11/2006| |
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24/11/2006| |
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11/11/2006| |
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08/11/2006| |
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01/11/2006| |
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01/11/2006| |
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30/10/2006| |
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25/10/2006| |
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20/10/2006| |
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11/10/2006| |
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04/10/2006| |
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15/09/2006| |
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13/09/2006| |
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03/09/2006| |
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17/08/2006| |
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17/08/2006| |
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09/08/2006| |
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26/07/2006| |
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13/06/2006| |
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06/06/2006| |
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01/06/2006| |
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30/05/2006| |
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15/05/2006| |
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12/05/2006| |
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10/05/2006| |
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02/05/2006| |
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21/04/2006| |
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10/04/2006| |
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15/03/2006| |
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15/03/2006| |
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15/03/2006| |
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15/02/2006| |
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04/02/2006| |
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04/02/2006| |
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18/07/2005| |
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03/07/2005| |
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30/06/2005| |
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28/06/2005| |
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28/06/2005| |
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28/06/2005| |
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19/04/2005| |
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19/04/2005| |
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