Of all the groups promoting pro-business, pro-growth economic policies, none is more prominent and influential than the Business Roundtable. An elite group of chief executives of major American corporations, Roundtable members collectively have more than $7 trillion in annual revenue and employ nearly 16 million workers.
Now, with the imminent nominations of Donald J. Trump and
Hillary Clinton as the respective Republican and Democratic candidates for
president, it’s fair to say the Business Roundtable is fit to be tied.
“There’s a great sense of frustration here,” John Engler,
the group’s president and a former Republican governor of Michigan, told me
this week. “We’re now faced with two candidates who, when it comes to the
United States economy, have diametrically opposite viewpoints from us. It’s
cause for great concern.”
That a Democratic candidate might diverge from the group’s
pro-business agenda is no surprise, but Mr. Trump’s embrace of economic
policies that are anathema to its members is seen as a betrayal of bedrock
Republican principles.
In a fiery anti-free-trade speech last month, Mr. Trump
said he would “rip up” existing free trade agreements, including the North
American Free Trade Agreement. He wants to brand China a currency manipulator
and impose a wide array of “taxes and tariffs” to protect American workers.
“We’re just on the opposite side of Trump on trade and
immigration,” Mr. Engler said. “Everything has been upended.”
If anything, Mrs. Clinton seems more closely aligned with
the business group than Mr. Trump. Although she now opposes the Trans-Pacific
Partnership trade deal she supported as secretary of state, “Fundamentally, she
and her husband come from a free trade perspective,” said Gregory Mankiw,
professor of economics at Harvard and chairman of the Council of Economic
Advisers under President George W. Bush. “It’s hard to believe in her heart of
hearts she’s opposed to free trade. And in general, she’s more aligned with
mainstream economic thought.”
The Business Roundtable has been officially nonpartisan
since its founding in 1972, and it does not endorse any candidate for political
office. But it has long been courted by leaders of both parties. President
Obama has met with the group on multiple occasions. Its members include the
chief executivesof American Express, FedEx and Walmart, and the organization’s
advocacy of large corporate interests and what it considers pro-growth economic
policies has usually aligned it with Republican orthodoxy.
Mitt Romney, a former Republican presidential candidate,
was warmly received when he met with the group in 2012, and, as a founder of
private equity firm Bain Capital, he was on a first-name basis with most of its
members. Mr. Trump does not have the same standing.
“It’s surprising to me that Trump doesn’t know many of
our members and they don’t know him,” Mr. Engler said. “Romney knew almost
everyone.”
Mr. Trump and his campaign staff did not respond to
requests for comment.
Although not going quite as far as Mr. Trump in
repudiating existing free trade deals, the Republican Party largely embraced
his protectionistphilosophy this week, declaring in its draft party platform
that all trade deals should “put America first.” In sharp contrast, the
Business Roundtable says on its website, “Open markets for international trade
and investment are essential for supporting U.S. economic growth and jobs.”
The business group’s support for free trade has
widespread bipartisan support among economists. Mr. Trump’s positions “show a
complete lack of understanding of international trade,” said Alan S. Blinder, a
professor of economics at Princeton, a former economics adviser to President
Clinton and a former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve. “Throwing up
barriers doesn’t work. It will raise the exchange rate, which will hurt exports
and push the deficit up. Barriers may help a favored few, but at the expense of
everyone else.”
Professor Mankiw agreed. “There are few things economists
are unanimous about, but support of free trade comes pretty close. There are
good reasons for international specialization, and by and large Americans have
benefited tremendously. Do we really want to produce T-shirts here and pay $60
for something that now costs $15?”
He acknowledged, “Technological progress has displaced
many manufacturing jobs. That raises productivity, which is the main driver of
a better standard of living. But economic change is rarely good for everyone.
In the short term, workers lose their jobs, and that’s hard. There are winners
and losers, and Trump is tapping into the losers.”
On immigration, the Business Roundtable argues for
expanded legal immigration, especially for highly educated and skilled workers:
“America has a long history of welcoming immigrants who through their own drive
and hard work contribute to our society and economy,” its website says.
“It makes no sense to bring the best students to our
graduate schools and then force them to go home,” Mr. Engler added. “We don’t
do that with athletes. We get the best in the world. We should be doing that
for engineers.”
Mr. Trump has occasionally expressed similar sentiments,
but he ridiculed a bipartisan effort to expand a visa program that allows
international students who complete advanced degrees to remain in the United
States, calling Marco Rubio, one of the bill’s sponsors, “Mark Zuckerberg’s
personal senator.” And more broadly, he has called for curbing immigration and
deporting the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants residing and working
here.
“The xenophobia of Trump supporters isn’t really
economic,” Professor Mankiw said. “It’s cultural. They don’t want people here
speaking foreign languages.”
Although no one, including the Roundtable, supports
illegal immigration, many economists fear the potential economic disruption of
deporting millions of people. “Where are you going to find the millions of
workers to replace these people?” Professor Blinder asked. “And that’s without
even touching on the humanitarian aspects.”
Probably no issue has more closely united business
interests and Republicans over the years than tax policy, although even most
Democrats and the Obama administration agree that it is in urgent need of
change.
The Roundtable says “America needs a modern tax system.
Key components of business tax reform include: setting the corporate tax rate
at 25 percent; adopting a modern international tax system; and making U.S. tax
policy permanent.”
Mr. Trump goes further: He would lower the corporate tax
rate (now 35 percent, the highest in the developed world) to a flat 15 percent
while cutting corporate loopholes.
That, for the Roundtable and many others who favor tax
overhaul, goes too far. The Tax Policy Center of the Brookings Institution
estimated that Mr. Trump’s tax proposals taken together would reduce federal
tax revenue by $9.5 trillion over the first decade and increase the national
debt 80 percent by 2036.
“We proposed 25 percent because we felt we had to suggest
something fiscally sustainable,” Mr. Engler said. “We thought we made a
reasonable proposal that could thread a bipartisan needle. You can get to 25
percent without blowing a hole in the budget.”
Mr. Trump will no doubt get an earful if he accepts the
business group’s pending invitation to meet in an off-the-record session in
September. (The group has invited Mrs. Clinton as well.) Neither candidate has
accepted, but both have said that they are interested, according to Mr. Engler.
Of course, a cool reception from the Roundtable may be
just what Mr. Trump wants, given that he is campaigning against “elites.” He
has alreadybrushed off similar criticism from the United States Chamber of
Commerce, saying the group is in the grip of special interests and “controlled
totally by various groups of people that don’t care about you whatsoever.”
Indeed, Mr. Trump could have had Roundtable members in
mind when he lumped together “powerful corporations, media elites and political
dynasties” as “the people who rigged the system,” as he put it in a speech this
month.
“I want you to imagine how much better our future can be
if we declare independence from the elites who’ve led us to one financial and
foreign policy disaster after another,” he told cheering supporters.
**More:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/15/business/for-trump-business-leaders-are-more-elites-to-resist.html?_r=1