A perfect storm is gathering in Mexico as the dawn of Donald Trump’s presidency north of the border coincides with domestic upheaval. While Trump’s threats on trade, immigration and border security have received the most attention, Mexico’s deeply unpopular president, Enrique Pena Nieto, also faces social unrest and a potential recession ahead of a presidential election in 2018—one in which, much as in the U.S., a populist underdog will look to capitalize on public anger.

Since Jan. 1, headlines from Mexico have been dominated not by Trump, but by the so-called “gasolinazo,” a controversial yet inevitable decision by the Pena Nieto administration to lift subsidies on gasoline prices in a bid to lighten the tax burden on debt-ridden state energy giant Pemex. The measure, implemented on New Year’s Day, sparked a price increase of 20.1 percent and widespread fuel shortages. Yet the public response has been fiercer than the government likely expected. Raucous demonstrations and sporadic violence and looting stretched from Tijuana, where U.S. authorities temporarily closed the San Ysidro border crossing Jan. 7, to the border with Guatemala. During the first week of January, rioters looted some 250 retail outlets, leading to 600 arrests and the death of a police officer.

The protests undoubtedly reflect a wider malaise. The one-two punch of Trump and low oil prices have seen the value of the peso plunge over the past year. Throughout the U.S. presidential race, the currency rose and fell according to Trump’s chances and hit a record low of 22.04 per dollar last week amid his threats of a “major border tax.” While Mexico has been trying to wean itself off its dependence on oil, which over the past decade supplied up to a third of the federal budget, low prices have forced substantial public spending cuts. Inflation is expected to rise by 4.6 percent in 2017, while the World Bank has revised its growth predictions for Mexico this year from 2.8 to 1.8 percent.

Given Trump’s rhetoric, one might reasonably expect Mexicans to rally behind their government. But instead Pena Nieto’s approval ratings have sunk to 12 percent, the lowest of any Mexican leader in 20 years and down from 24 percent in December. In state and local elections last summer, voters roundly rejected his Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, Mexico’s former ruling dynasty that regained the presidency in 2012.

“Pena Nieto was praised for his vision and commitment to reform in the early days [of his presidency] but has looked increasingly passive and weak in the face of both external and domestic crises,” says Alberto Fernandez, a political scientist at The New School. “The administration often appears divided, and there has been a clear lack of leadership on key issues.”

Mexico has long been hailed as one of Latin America’s success stories. Thanks to competitive elections and successive governments united in their commitment to open markets and fiscal prudence, the country has enjoyed steady, if unspectacular, growth since 2000, notably avoiding the economic instability that has plagued the likes of Brazil and Venezuela. Upon taking office in 2012, Pena Nieto appeared to personify this progress. He successfully pushed the three major, opposing parties in Congress to quickly pass a package of wide-ranging reforms—known as the Pact for Mexico—that involved the energy sector, tax system, labor laws and the public education system. Optimistic observers hailed the coming of “Mexico’s moment.”

Yet a string of crises—some unavoidable, others self-inflicted—have undermined faith in the administration. The problems that the Pact for Mexico were intended to address—union power, corruption, the weak rule of law—are so deeply entrenched that the reforms may take years to have a lasting impact. A series of scandals have also taken their toll, from the bungled investigation into the disappearance of 43 students in 2014 to multiple graft cases involving PRI members. Meanwhile, Trump’s stated intention to tax Mexican exports and renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement could severely dent investment in Mexican manufacturing, one of the economy’s key growth areas.

“What’s certain is that the Mexican economy has developed a kind of modus vivendi in which society is more or less accustomed to mediocrity,” says Carlos Bravo Regidor, a professor at the Center for the Teaching and Research of Economics in Mexico City. “But with the current combination of circumstances, we are in uncharted territory.”

With a presidential election 18 months away, Pena Nieto’s PRI, which dominated Mexican politics in the 20th century, is getting nervous. The man who may stand to benefit most is Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a charismatic leftist who finished second in the presidential races of 2006 and 2012 and will almost certainly run for a third time with his new party, Morena. Drawing on a passionate base of mostly urban working-class supporters and deftly wielding anti-elite propaganda in a way Trump himself would admire, Lopez Obrador—better-known in Mexico by his initials “AMLO”—has been compared by many to the populist leaders of South America. He enjoys an early lead in opinion polls.

“AMLO has the most passionate base of any politician in Mexico, so it is not a surprise to see him leading at this stage, although he would have to expand his support more widely to stand a chance of winning,” Fernandez says. In the current political climate, and with whatever may come from Trump in the White House, he believes the most successful candidate will be the one who can best project a sense of national unity.

In another parallel to the 2016 U.S. race, AMLO’s closest rival is currently former first lady Margarita Zavala of the center-right National Action Party, or PAN, which governed Mexico between 2000 and 2012. Yet, much like Hillary Clinton, Zavala would need to overcome both skeptics within her own party and the legacy of her husband, former President Felipe Calderon, whose administration was marred by rising drug violence and the knock-on effects of the Great Recession.

“Everything seems to indicate that the character of the 2018 election campaigns will be defined by what happens this year and will revolve around a fear of instability and hope for change,” Bravo says. With all the uncertainties of a Trump presidency and the gas protests continuing, that doesn’t bode well for next year. “Zavala and the PAN would present an agenda of conservative change; AMLO will try to dilute his conflictive image with conciliatory gestures.” As for the PRI, Bravo believes that “Pena Nieto will try to impose his successor, at a very high cost for his own party.”

Paul Imison is a freelance journalist based in Mexico City whose work has appeared in Foreign Policy, Vice News, The Financial Times and The Independent, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @paulimison.