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27/09/2006 | Analysis: Oil prices rise amid OPEC worry

Donna Borak

Oil prices retracted to $61 a barrel Tuesday as the market reacted to further speculation that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is closer to cutting crude oil production next month due to softening demand.

 

Despite the oil cartel's commitment last month in Vienna to keep quota levels at 28 million barrels, threats of production have driven oil prices to remain above $60 per barrel. On Monday, light sweet crude for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange dipped to $59.52 a barrel, before settling at $61.45, an increase of 90 cents, marking the lowest drop since March.

With suggestions by the oil cartel to keep oil prices up around $60 per barrel, crude rallied Tuesday to $61.15, by 40 cents, suggesting that the recent jump in oil prices maybe the end of the recent free-fall.

OPEC ministers are expected to meet in December in Nigeria and have already been discussing the possibility of trimming production ahead of the meeting.

However, analysts suggest that when ministers meet next month a formal decision on production cuts will not be made.

"There are a lot of fundamental questions that they haven't answered yet. They would have to address that before they undertook a cut," David Kirsch, an oil markets analyst at PFC Energy in Washington, told United Press International in a telephone interview.

Oil prices have plummeted by more than 20 percent since the July peak above $78 per barrel. Analysts cite rising inventories, a softening of demand, and a break of geopolitical tensions and weather-related threats have helped to ease supply worries.

"It was a tight market for products that kept support for crude over the summer. You don't have that now," Kirsch said.

"In fact, if you look at winters fuel mix, natural gas and home heating oil, you have very high inventory levels of both fuels. It's going to take a very cold winter to give you any type of product support of crude this winter."

While the nation's commercial crude oil inventory declined 2.8 million barrels, 0.9 percent last week to 324.9 million barrels per day, crude supplies remained well above the average, higher than 5 percent from last year. Reports have suggested that crude inventories could see a nominal decline this week, while distillate stockpiles, like heating oil and jet fuel, could see a jump in supply. The Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Department of Energy's data arm, will release the data on Wednesday.

"There seems to be pent up demand out there... (with) energy consumers taken advantage of the decline in prices to snap up supplies," Kirsch said.

The resumption of operations at BP's Prudhoe Bay on its Eastern pipeline will help lift U.S. domestic oil production by 100,000 barrels a day. Prudhoe Bay supplies 8 percent of U.S. domestic production.

Last week, the Department of Transportation gave BP approval to return production on oil transit lines for the purpose of smart pigging. The smart pig will run through a five-mile, 34-inch diameter pipeline, which carries oil from processing facilities on the eastern half of Prudhoe Bay field.

"We expect that the line is in good condition and (will) continue to operate and we'll confirm that with the smart pig run," said Daren Beaudo, spokesman for BP Alaska, told UPI in a telephone interview.

Since the August shut down, BP has imported anywhere between 3 million to 4 million barrels per day to maintain supply levels.

The British oil giant is expected to ramp up oil production at the end of October after it completes construction of bypass lines on the Eastern Operating Area and gains approval by the Department of Transportation to utilize the lines, Beaudo said.

"The only way to test these lines to make sure they are safe is to restart them in a controlled, monitored way," said PHMSA Administrator Thomas Barrett, in a statement.

Barret said any problems during testing would result in an immediate shut down of the line.

BP is expected to replace the line next year with a smaller diameter pipe to cut down on corrosion control problems. The August shutdown of Prudhoe Bay prompted the Transportation Department to propose new regulations on low-pressure pipelines located in environmentally sensitive areas.

UPI (Estados Unidos)

 



 
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