Recep Tayyip Erdogan emerged victorious from last Sunday's referendum, but his slim margin of victory may actually have weakened his rule. Opposition to the Turkish president's power grab is forming and the EU can do little other than stand aside and watch.
Nothing can hold them back. Not the rain, not the wind and not the well-armed anti-terrorism police. On Tuesday evening, several thousand demonstrators marched through Istanbul, a diverse group including students, pensioners, women in headscarves and punks, and many of them held up signs as they walked: "No to the presidency!" They also chanted: "Thief! Murderer! Erdogan!" And: "This is just the beginning. Our fight goes on!"
The protests began on Sunday, just a few hours after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed victory in the referendum that grants him significantly expanded powers and the demonstrations have become larger on each successive day since then, spreading to more than three dozen cities. People in Ankara and Izmir, in Adana and Mersin, in Edirne and Canakkale have taken to the streets in opposition to Erdogan, accusing him of having manipulated the vote on the constitutional referendum.
According to media reports, the country's electoral commission accepted up to 2.5 million ballots despite their not having been stamped in accordance with the rules. Election observers from the OSCE found significant shortcomings with the vote, outlined in a 14-page preliminary report that also noted the unfairness of the campaign leading up to the referendum. The vote itself, the organization found, also violated some aspects of Turkish law. The opposition has refused to recognize the results.
"Erdogan robbed us of victory," says Istanbul-based businessman Koray Türkay, who is one of the organizers of the protests in Istanbul.
For the time being, only a small portion of the Turkish population is rising up against the government, with a total of 20,000 people thought to have participated in the nationwide protests. Türkay, though, is nevertheless drawing parallels to the Gezi Park protests in summer 2013, which were ultimately crushed by the police.
More Repressive Measures
Immediately after the vote, Erdogan denied that any manipulation had taken place and claimed that the referendum had been "the most democratic election … ever seen in any Western country." Prime Minister Binali Yildirim added that the protests were "unacceptable." On Wednesday, dozens of protesters were detained and the police presence at the protests was boosted.
Türkay believes that more repressive measures are coming. "But we are not afraid. We will continue protesting until the referendum is repeated," he says. Turkey, in other words, could be facing the kind of escalation that took place during the Gezi Park protests.
The vote last Sunday was the most far-reaching political decision made in Turkey's recent history. The constitutional amendments approved in the referendum essentially sweep away what was left of democracy in Turkey, completing Turkey's transformation from the republic of Atatürk into the republic of Erdogan.
Once the constitutional reforms come into force following the next election in 2019, the president will be able to pass laws by decree and dissolve the parliament whenever he sees fit -- and the office of prime minister will also be eliminated. It will mark the end of the separation of powers in Turkey. The president alone will make decisions regarding war and peace and he will have almost complete control over the judiciary.
Some of the 18 new articles come into force immediately. The High Council of Judges and Prosecutors, for example, which supervises the judiciary, will be reduced from 22 to 13 members, four of whom can be directly appointed by Erdogan. But should he go on to win re-election, Erdogan will become practically omnipotent.
The country that he rules, though, is deeply divided and the referendum has only exacerbated those divisions, with one half of the population venerating Erdogan practically as a cult leader and the other half not even recognizing his legal right to hold the presidency.
'A Victory, But Not a Triumph'
Indeed, Erdogan emerges from the April 16 referendum as both the victor and as the loser, with the vote having laid bare his weaknesses. Europeans are turning away from him, the debate over putting a halt to Turkish-EU accession negotiations has flared up again and the Turkish president is more isolated than ever before. He received congratulations on his referendum victory from only two Western heads of government: Donald Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
