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27/09/2006 | SOUTH KOREA - Rethinking its Military Future

Stratfor Staff

Delegations from the United States and South Korea will meet in Washington on Sept. 25 to discuss the expansion of defense industry ties and joint military research and development programs.

 

This annual meeting comes at a crucial time in the defense of South Korea as the United States attempts to dramatically redefine or eliminate the Combined Forces Command, which gives the United States operational command of South Korean military forces in time of war.

Kenneth Krieg, U.S. undersecretary of defense for acquisition, technology and logistics, will meet with Lee Sun Hi, commissioner of South Korea's Defense Acquisition Program Administration, in Washington on Sept. 25 to discuss the military technologies and equipment South Korea wants to buy and those the United States is willing to sell. The annual meeting comes as Seoul and Washington redefine their half-century military alliance, and as the United States seeks to reduce its presence and responsibilities in Korea.

The latest round of force realignment, begun shortly before the current Iraq war, came amid rising South Korean nationalism, and has been characterized not as a U.S. realignment of forces but as a fracturing of the alliance by South Korea. For Washington, this leaves South Korea as the driving force in the restructuring, and reduces Seoul's ability to bargain for more U.S. military assistance during the transition. For Seoul, this turns the force restructuring into a political issue, pitting President Roh Moo Hyun against the opposition Grand National Party. Roh has attempted to make the force restructuring and alliance discussions appear to be his initiative, making South Korea appear stronger in the negotiations, not like a country unprepared for abandonment by its bigger security partner. However, Seoul has known for some time that the U.S. position in South Korea -- with some 37,000 troops essentially anchored on the peninsula and unable to deploy to other global contingencies -- is untenable in the post-Cold War world.

The problem is that, since the 1953 armistice, South Korea's military has been primarily designed as an auxiliary force intended to absorb any initial assault by North Korea until U.S. reinforcements arrive, and then to supplement the U.S.-led counterattack. Washington has been so tightly allied to Seoul militarily that it has feared being dragged into another Korean war. Thus, the United States has kept South Korea militarily weak and dependent on U.S. forces, so Seoul must have U.S. assistance to conduct any offensive operation. To some extent, Seoul has accepted this balance and refocused its attention on economic development. Though South Korea developed into an economic powerhouse, the U.S. military deployed almost all the meaningful military technology --from deep-strike capability to intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) assets. Now the United States is pulling out and taking these capabilities with it. In matters such as ISR and power projection, South Korea has an underwhelming capability given its economic standing in the world and its proximity to the fourth-largest military on the planet. Seoul knows this, and it is something it intends to fix.

As far as the United States is concerned, however, South Korea is militarily useful only for containing its northern neighbor. The United States does not share South Korea's larger regional concerns and military ambitions. For example, South Korea wants the RQ-4 Global Hawk, the U.S. Air Force's high-altitude, long-endurance unmanned aerial vehicle. An advanced and highly capable surveillance asset, the Global Hawk is classified category 1 under the Missile Technology Control Regime. South Korea wants it to further its regional capabilities. The Global Hawk has the range to cover Japan and almost all of China. It has very clear strategic applications. However, Washington is really interested only in providing Seoul with tactical and theater-level assets directly relevant to containing the North, and it is unlikely that South Korea will ever see the Global Hawk in its inventory (some reports already indicate a formal refusal by the United States).

That does not mean the United States is unwilling to sell military technology to South Korea, which is in the process of receiving the F-15K, an improved version of the renowned F-15E Strike Eagle. South Korea also was the first international customer for the precision AGM-84-H Standoff Land Attack Missile-Extended Range, which can be launched from the F-15K. Together, this represents a formidable power-projection capability, and leaves almost all of Japan and both Beijing and Shanghai within un-refueled range. However, the main U.S. motivation is the essential capability for South Korea to conduct its own airstrikes, if necessary, deep inside North Korea.

A land-attack missile capability is similarly important for South Korea to engage North Korea's heavily fortified and prepared positions in the first moments of a war. In 1975, South Korea successfully modified the U.S. MIM-14 Nike-Hercules surface-to-air missile for land attack, creating the NHK-1 and later the NHK-2. However, until 2001, a 1979 agreement with the United States kept South Korea out of the longer-range missile development game. The U.S. Army Tactical Missile System Block 1 has given South Korea an important short-range battlefield capability to strike inside of North Korea from south of the demilitarized zone. On Sept. 21, a senior South Korean military official revealed the existence of the Cheon Ryong, a cruise missile with a 300-mile range that might even be capable of being launched from a submarine. The official also expressed an expectation of doubling that range in the next five years.

The Cheon Ryong is a good example of how Seoul is beginning to fend for itself in military development. Its first completely indigenous satellite, the Arirang-2, was launched July 28. Although officially "multipurpose," it is essentially South Korea's first spy satellite, finally freeing its intelligence and defense communities from a total reliance on the United States for such imagery. South Korea's civilian space program is still far behind Japan's, but it is proceeding apace with the three-stage liquid-fueled Korea Sounding Rocket III, the latest development to come out of a series of successful sounding rocket development ventures.

Nevertheless, given the great distance the South Korean military must make up in terms of research and development, Seoul has made -- and will continue to make -- substantial purchases abroad. Hyundai has already built and launched the Sohn Won Il, the first of potentially nine German-designed Type-214 (an improved Type-209) hydrogen fuel cell- powered submarines. The widely proliferated Type-209 Howaldtswerke design has been extremely successful, and its various derivatives are used by Germany, Greece, Italy, Israel and South Korea. With nine Type-209s already in its inventory, Seoul is set on redoubling the size of its submarine fleet only five years after commissioning the ninth Type-209. This will give South Korea an important ability to protect its shipping interests all the way to the Strait of Malacca, especially if fitted with the AGM-84 Harpoon anti-ship missile and the Cheon Ryong cruise missile.

Ultimately, the domestically built Dokdo class of amphibious assault ships is the embodiment of the real South Korean goal: extending its military reach. The lead ship, the Dokdo, named after a tiny, uninhabitable island whose ownership is disputed by South Korea and Japan, has already been launched. The next two ships of the class are the Marado and the Baeknyeongdo, the other two islands in the chain. Their capability to assist in humanitarian relief in another tsunami, for example, has been widely touted. However, these ships, as large as the first U.S. purpose-built aircraft carrier, the USS Ranger, have a much greater range of capabilities, including putting a battalion of marines ashore and launching short takeoff/vertical landing warplanes such as the Harrier or F-35B Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter (although Seoul is not currently slated to receive this platform). Such a capability is exactly what South Korea intends to bring to bear -- and exactly the capability the United States has no interest in Seoul acquiring. Such a development would not be in a vacuum -- Chinese and Japanese military expansions will continue apace, which is, of course, part of the problem.

South Korea is already thinking past North Korea. Pyongyang remains a very real security concern, but military planners are already looking beyond unification to longer term security concerns -- primarily Japan and China. Korea has long found itself caught between the competing regional ambitions of the two countries, and it fears another confrontation could be brewing. But Seoul also worries about each country individually. China continues to insist that most of the Korean Peninsula was Chinese territory in the past, and though such historical quibbling might seem insignificant, Seoul and Pyongyang see this as the groundwork for justifying future inroads into one or both Koreas.

But Japan is the biggest concern. Though it would seem that the two democratic nations, both strong allies of the United States, would be non-threatening to one another, there is a history of animosity between the two, and a growing competition for natural resources, trade routes, markets and investments. There also are territorial disputes between the two nations, and the Japanese military is far ahead of South Korea's in technological development. Seoul is now looking to build a defense force for the future that is capable not only of deterring or repelling North Korean aggression but also of ensuring South Korea's broader security interests -- from balancing Chinese and Japanese power to protecting supply lines through the Straight of Malacca to the Middle East.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 



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