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26/06/2018 | Turkey - Turkish lira seen heading for record lows after fleeting rally

Asia Times On Line Staff

Post-election gains reversed as macro policy concerns come back into focus.

 

Turkey’s embattled currency rallied briefly after Sunday’s election victory for President Tayyip Erdogan dispelled concerns about growing political uncertainty. But the lira, which has fallen almost 20% versus the dollar so far this year, resumed its quest for another record low after the reality facing policymakers set back in.

Turkey’s central bank defied Erdogan’s advice against higher interest rates earlier this month, halting the lira’s slide briefly with a rate hike. But analysts remain concerned about the degree to which the central bank will maintain independence following Erdogan’s victory. The newly-empowered president has unnerved investors with his unorthodox calls for lower interest rates despite high inflation.

The lira erased post-election gains of more than 3% versus the dollar, while stocks and bonds also reversed their rally.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley wrote Monday that they see the currency heading for fresh record lows, according to Bloomberg.

“So far, there is little to suggest that the election will result in a new macro policy framework, which is required, in our view,” the analysts said. “As such, the election result suggests status quo, which in recent years has not produced positive results for asset prices.”


Asia Times on Line (Hong Kong)

 



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