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03/11/2006 | USAŽ06-2006 Election Overview - Hot Races

Open Secrets Staff

We designate a race as "hot" based on a number of sources, including veteran election analysts Charlie Cook and Stuart Rothenberg and reports in Congressional Quarterly and Campaigns and Elections.

 

Most congressional races are not competitive; in 2004, 98% of House incumbents and 96% in the Senate won re-election. Those races expected to be competitive end up on our Hot Races list. We also include races if there is an unusual money angle—say, a self-financed millionaire candidate or some other unusual factor.

Arizona District 08

Gabrielle Giffords (D)

$2,184,911

Randy Graf (R)

$984,298

Jay Dudley Quick (I)

$58,106

David F. Nolan (L)

$15,357

This is an open seat race in a district that leans Republican. Both parties face competitive primaries.

Arizona Senate Race

Jon L. Kyl (R)*

$13,043,204

Jim Pederson (D)

$11,481,887

Richard Mack (L)

$0

Multimillionaire Pederson (D) takes on incumbent Kyl (R) in an attempt to gain Democratic control of the Senate. This is likely to be the most expensive Senate race in state history.

California District 50

Francine P. Busby (D)

$3,258,981

Brian P. Bilbray (R)*

$2,174,726

Miriam E. Clark (3)

$0

Paul King (L)

$0

Brian Bilbray (R) won an unexpectedly competitive race to replace Duke Cunningham in this seat. His special election opponent Francine Busby will face him again in November.

Colorado District 07

Rick O'Donnell (R)

$2,650,967

Edwin G. Perlmutter (D)

$2,111,733

Roger McCarville (3)

$0

Incumbent Beauprez (R) is running for governor leaving the seat open. O’Donnell (R) lost the seat to Beauprez inn the 2004 primary election and now faces Ed Perlmutter (D) in the general election. Democrats have made the race a top target.

Connecticut District 02

Rob Simmons (R)*

$2,750,806

Joe Courtney (D)

$1,782,503

Because Bush’s job approval rating is abysmal in this district, incumbent Simmons (R) is trying to distance himself from the president. Courtney (D) lost to Simmons in 2004, but is doing well in fundraising this cycle.

Connecticut District 04

Christopher Shays (R)*

$3,193,031

Diane Goss Farrell (D)

$2,740,473

Philip Maymin (L)

$32,536

Richard A. Duffee (3)

$0

The incumbent Shays (R) narrowly beat Farrell (D) in 2004. This time Farrell has been fundraising at a torrid pace, but not enough to catch Shays just yet. Farrell faces the challenge of overcoming backlash about the handling of the war in Iraq.

Connecticut Senate Race

Joe Lieberman (I)*

$15,034,617

Ned Lamont (D)

$9,045,679

Alan Schlesinger (R)

$194,959

Ralph Ferrucci (3)

$2,230

John Daniel Mertens (3)

$721

Primary challenger Lamont (D) defeated incumbent Lieberman (D). Lieberman is now running as an Independent in the general and Republican candidate Schlesinger doesn’t seem to stand a chance—Bush has even declined to endorse him.

Florida District 13

Vernon Buchanan (R)

$6,063,716

Christine Jennings (D)

$1,303,937

Despite raising nearly four times more than Jennings (D), Buchanan (R) is facing a toxic environment for Republicans nationally in his fight for this open seat.

Florida District 22

E. Clay Shaw Jr. (R)*

$3,916,290

Ron Klein (D)

$3,235,816

Neil Evangelista (I)

$7,950

Shaw (R) faces a first-tier challenger for the first time since 2000. The district favored the Democrat in the last two presidential elections so the race should be competitive.

Georgia District 08

Mac Collins (R)

$1,523,921

Jim Marshall (D)*

$1,494,122

The district (formerly the 3rd) has been redrawn, leaving incumbent Marshall (D) more vulnerable. The challenger is former Rep Collins (R.)

Georgia District 12

John Barrow (D)*

$2,195,148

Max Burns (R)

$1,843,751

Although this district leans Democratic, polls show incumbent Barrow (D) in a neck-in-neck race with Burns (R), who is back for a rematch after being outseated by Barrow in 2004. Re-districting in 2005 will make this race even closer.

Iowa District 01

Bruce Braley (D)

$1,647,054

Mike Whalen (R)

$1,440,074

James F. Hill (3)

$0

Albert W. Schoeman (I)

$0

Like Colorado's 7th, this Republican held open seat favored Kerry in 2004. Braley (D) faces Whalen (R). Whalen has raised a little more than Braley.

Iowa District 03

Leonard L. Boswell (D)*

$1,761,563

Jeffrey Lamberti (R)

$1,514,552

Helen Meyers (3)

$0

Moderate Democrat Boswell faces a formidable opponent in State Senate President Lamberti (R) this year. Lamberti has stature in Des Moines and is close to Boswell in fundraising. Boswell has also come under fire for economic challenges in the district.

Idaho District 01

William T. Sali (R)

$923,324

Larry L. Grant (D)

$557,186

Andy Hedden-Nicely (3)

$15,771

David Edwin Olson (I)

$0

Paul Smith (3)

$0

Disassociating himself from the states GOP leaders may have helped Sali (R) win the primary, but the tactic is now hurting him against Grant (D). Sali has raised twice as much as Grant and has more cash in hand for the final stretch.

Illinois District 06

Tammy Duckworth (D)

$3,269,173

Peter Roskam (R)

$2,459,989

This Republican-held open seat favored Bush in 2004, but the Democrats have recruited Iraq veteran Duckworth to run. Duckworth has matched Roskam (R) in fundraising, but trails him in cash on hand.

Illinois District 08

David McSweeney (R)

$3,918,653

Melissa Bean (D)*

$3,513,647

This district went for Bush by 12 points in 2004, making this a top Republican target. The two candidates, incumbent Bean (D) and Crane (R), have raised more money combined than any other House race in the country as of the end of June.

Indiana District 08

Brad Ellsworth (D)

$1,466,903

John Hostettler (R)*

$506,026

Although incumbent Hostettler (R) has never taken much interest in fundraising, he has been elected six times. The GOP candidate is already lagging behind his opponent Ellsworth (D), who may be his strongest challenger yet.

Indiana District 09

Michael E. Sodrel (R)*

$2,402,290

Baron Hill (D)

$1,536,268

Eric Schansberg (L)

$20,462

Hill (D) is trying to win back the seat he held until incumbent Sodrel (R) took it from him by fewer than 1,500 votes in 2004. Their closeness in fundraising and 2004 vote means the race could be pivotal in determining control of the House.

Kentucky District 02

Ron Lewis (R)*

$1,437,059

John Michael Weaver (D)

$762,532

Challenger Weaver (D) is a conservative state Representative who can appeal to Kentucky's moderates. Yet incumbent Lewis (R) has outraised the Democratic candidate by more than 2-to-1.

Kentucky District 03

Anne M. Northup (R)*

$2,976,705

John A. Yarmuth (D)

$1,531,265

William Edward Parker (3)

$0

Donna Walker Mancini (L)

$0

Incumbent Northup (R) has nearly $1 million more in cash on hand than challenger Yarmuth (D) going into the final stretch. Yet Yarmuth is running in a district that votes Democratic in presidential elections during a year favorable for his party.

Kentucky District 04

Geoff Davis (R)*

$3,287,655

Ken Lucas (D)

$1,135,534

Brian Houillion (L)

$0

Bush won Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District with a crushing 63 percent of the vote in 2004 but changing national sentiment surrounding Republicans may help Lucas (D) take back the House seat he gave up to Davis (R) that year.

Louisiana District 03

Charles J. Melancon (D)*

$2,345,892

Craig F. Romero (R)

$1,626,610

Olangee Breech (D)

$4,462

James Lee Blake Jr (L)

$0

Freshman incumbent Melancon (D) won a close race in 2004 and faces a strong challenger in Craig Romero (R). Melancon (D) has a substantial lead in fund raising and cash on hand.

Maryland Senate Race

Ben Cardin (D)

$6,750,777

Michael Steele (R)

$6,471,814

Kevin Zeese (3)

$57,906

The Republicans have already settled on Lt Governor Michael Steele for this open seat race. The Democrats face a competitive primary with Rep Cardin, former Rep Mfume and several other candidates.

Michigan Senate Race

Deborah Ann Stabenow (D)*

$11,674,966

Michael J. Bouchard (R)

$4,557,492

Dennis Fitzsimons (3)

$0

Leonard Schwartz (L)

$0

Brett McAtee (3)

$0

David Sole (3)

$0

In a strange turn of events, it is the Democratic incumbent (Stabenow) who is vulnerable. Bouchard (R) is far behind Stabenow in fundraising, but Republicans hold out hope that state politics sway the national race in their favor.

Minnesota District 01

Gil Gutknecht (R)*

$1,124,303

Timothy J. Walz (D)

$759,040

Although Democrats are providing support for their candidate, Walz, incumbent Gutknecht (R) has had more money to play with from the start. Yet a strong Democratic surge in the final weeks could mean a loss for the Republicans.

Minnesota District 06

Patty Wetterling (D)

$3,814,725

Michele Marie Bachmann (R)

$1,958,931

John Paul Binkowski (3)

$16,856

The national fallout of the Mark Foley page scandal is evident here, where Wetterling (D), a well-known child safety advocate, has received an unexpected boost. Wetterling still has more cash on hand than Republican state senator Bachmann.

Minnesota Senate Race

Mark Kennedy (R)

$8,614,396

Amy Klobuchar (D)

$7,922,161

Michael James Cavlan (3)

$7,359

Robert Maxwell Fitzgerald (3)

$7,130

Peter I. Idusogie (I)

$3,165

Ben Powers (3)

$0

Mark Kennedy (R) is the Republican candidate for this open seat. The Democrats have a number of candidates running.

Missouri Senate Race

James M. Talent (R)*

$21,477,711

Claire McCaskill (D)

$7,310,483

Lydia L. Lewis (3)

$5,527

Frank Gilmour (L)

$0

Incumbent Talent (R) is trying to keep state auditor McCaskill (D) at bay by clinging to his clean record and accomplishments in the Senate. Talent has considerably outraised McCaskill in a race the Cook Political Report calls the bellwether contest.

Montana Senate Race

Conrad Burns (R)*

$8,300,779

Jon Tester (D)

$4,302,249

Incumbent Burns (R) is outraising his opponent, Tester (D), but has had to explain his ties to former lobbyist Abramoff and apologize for recent seemingly offensive comments about immigrants.

North Carolina District 11

Charles H. Taylor (R)*

$3,394,662

Heath Shuler (D)

$1,526,551

The Democrats recruited former NFL QB Heath Shuler to challenge incumbent Charles Taylor (R)

Nebraska Senate Race

Pete Ricketts (R)

$12,997,458

Ben Nelson (D)*

$7,373,843

Incumbent Ben Nelson (D) is a Democrat in a strongly Republican state. However, the strongest potential Republican challengers declined to run this year.

New Hampshire District 02

Paul W. Hodes (D)

$1,196,059

Charles Bass (R)*

$918,789

Howard L. Wilson (I)

$0

Hodes (D) is hopeful that unlike his attempt in 2004, this time he can win against incumbent Bass (R). Bass has a solid financial advantage, but this district has begun to tilt Democratic, voting for Kerry with 52 percent of the vote in 2004.

New Jersey District 07

Mike Ferguson (R)*

$2,549,135

Linda D. Stender (D)

$1,368,825

Thomas D. Abrams (3)

$0

Capitalizing on voters' anger toward the national GOP may be Democratic challenger Stender's best chance at unseating Ferguson (R). Ferguson, however, is ahead in fundraising and defeated a popular Democrat handily in the previous cycle.

New Jersey Senate Race

Robert Menendez (D)*

$10,476,057

Thomas H. Kean Jr (R)

$5,628,975

Angela Lariscy (3)

$0

Daryl Mikell Brooks (3)

$0

Edward Forchion (3)

$0

Gregory Pason (3)

$0

Len Flynn (L)

$0

N. Leonard Smith (3)

$0

Menendez (D) was appointed to the Senate after Corzine resigned to become Governor. He faces Kean (R), son of the former Governor.

New Mexico District 01

Heather Wilson (R)*

$4,314,611

Patricia A Madrid (D)

$2,505,256

Both Madrid (D) and incumbent Wilson (R) have name recognition and fundraising prowess, but Wilson must grapple with national sentiment that doesn’t favor the GOP. Both have also accepted controversial campaign contributions.

Nevada District 02

Dean Heller (R)

$1,515,787

Jill T. Derby (D)

$1,088,221

Scott Babb (L)

$0

James C. Kroshus (3)

$0

Daniel Rosen (I)

$0

Derby (D) may not be able to win over the moderates and independents in the state, now that she's running against the more moderate Heller (R). The Democrat, however, has not been too far behind the GOP candidate and Democrats remain hopeful.

Nevada District 03

Jon Porter (R)*

$2,713,011

Tessa Hafen (D)

$1,125,210

Joseph P. Silvestri (L)

$0

Joshua Hansen (3)

$0

Challenger Hafen (D), an aide to Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, may be receiving help from her boss, but Porter (R) has won two solid victories in this district. Porter raised about $1.6 million more than Hafen, but now has less cash in hand.

New York District 20

John E. Sweeney (R)*

$2,400,141

Kirsten E. Gillibrand (D)

$1,849,586

With an energetic and aggressive campaign, Gillibrand (D) is trying to unseat incumbent Sweeney (R) in a strong Republican district. Given the huge anti-Republican surge in the state this year, she may be able to pull it off. Sweeney leads in fundraising.

New York District 24

Raymond A. Meier (R)

$1,276,792

Michael Arcuri (D)

$1,253,398

Michael J, Sylvia III (L)

$0

After Boehlert's (R) retirement this has become competitive

New York District 25

James T. Walsh (R)*

$1,144,262

Dan Maffei (D)

$660,803

This Syracuse-based district may lean Democratic, but incumbent Walsh (R) has never gotten less than 55 percent of the vote. Challenger Maffei (D) is taking advantage of Bush's floundering approval ratings, yet trails his opponent in fundraising.

New York District 29

John R. Kuhl Jr (R)*

$1,285,450

Eric Massa (D)

$1,140,213

This race has become unexpectedly close for the most Republican district in the state. Democrats are taking advantage of the district's floundering economy to unseat incumbent Kuhl (R) with Massa (D). Massa has trailed Kuhl in fundraising.

Ohio District 01

Steve Chabot (R)*

$1,917,237

John Cranley (D)

$1,854,266

Chabot (R) seriously risks losing this seat to challenger Cranley (D), whom he defeated in 2000. Bush took just 51 percent of the vote in this district in the 2004 elections and Cranley is not far behind in fundraising.

Ohio District 06

Charlie Wilson (D)

$1,727,664

Chuck Blasdel (R)

$981,218

Both parties have recruited strong candidates - Wilson (D) and Blasdel (R) for this open seat race. Wilson currently has a large lead in fund raising and a small lead in cash on hand.

Ohio District 15

Deborah Pryce (R)*

$3,858,905

Mary Jo Kilroy (D)

$2,383,165

Charles Morrison (I)

$6,583

Scott Joseph Wesseler (3)

$50

The scandal surrounding ex-Rep. Mark Foley of Florida is not helping Pryce (R), the No. 4 Republican in the House. Kilroy (D) is a solid candidate and, although she is behind in fundraising, anti-incumbent sentiment in the state has boosted her chances.

Ohio District 18

Zachary T. Space (D)

$844,970

Joy Padgett (R)

$687,377

Ney (R) quit this district’s race in early August and will plead guilty in a corruption investigation focusing on his dealings with former lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Democrat Zack Space, a lawyer, is now battling state Sen. Joy Padgett for Ney’s seat.

Ohio Senate Race

Mike DeWine (R)*

$13,267,384

Sherrod Brown (D)

$6,619,010

Richard Duncan (I)

$0

DeWine (R) has been popular in past elections, but the multiple scandals that have ensnared his colleagues at the state and federal level may be enough for Brown (D) to take this seat from him. DeWine, however, leads in fundraising.

Pennsylvania District 04

Melissa Hart (R)*

$1,868,114

Jason Altmire (D)

$657,972

Though Democrats outnumber Republicans here, Hart (R) has continued to win comfortably. Hart may be hurt this year by the fact that she is a party loyalist and supported ex-House Majority leader DeLay (R), giving Altmire (D) a real chance.

Pennsylvania District 06

Jim Gerlach (R)*

$3,100,204

Lois Murphy (D)

$2,766,891

Incumbent Gerlach (R) beat Murphy (D) in 2004 by only 6,400 votes. Murphy is back for a rematch. The district favored Kerry over Bush in 2004 so this is likely to be a very competitive race. The candidates are close in fund raising and cash on hand.

Pennsylvania District 08

Michael G. Fitzpatrick (R)*

$2,677,320

Patrick J. Murphy (D)

$1,614,968

Murphy (D) is a highly touted veteran of the Iraq war, making him appealing to moderates who may otherwise vote Republican. Democrats have used conservative incumbent Fitzpatrick's (R) support for President Bush against him.

Pennsylvania District 10

Don Sherwood (R)*

$1,843,528

Chris Carney (D)

$1,164,155

This district may be heavily Republican, but anti-incumbent sentiment in the state, combined with the publicity surrounding Republican incumbent Sherwood's extramarital affair may be enough for challenger Carney (D) to win here.

Pennsylvania Senate Race

Rick Santorum (R)*

$24,988,041

Bob Casey (D)

$14,995,803

Carl J. Romanelli (3)

$15,394

Santorum (R) is one of the most vulnerable incumbents this year, trailing challenger Casey (D) in the polls. This the most expensive competitive 2006 Senate race as of the end of August.

Rhode Island Senate Race

Sheldon Whitehouse (D)

$4,953,950

Lincoln D. Chafee (R)*

$3,975,009

Though Chafee (R) has often broken with his party (he did not vote for Bush in 2004), while primary challenger Laffey is more conservative, the national party helped Chafee win, ensuring a close race against Whitehouse (D) in the general election.

South Carolina District 05

John M. Spratt Jr. (D)*

$2,136,029

Ralph Norman (R)

$1,288,488

This could be incumbent John Spratt's (D) first competitive race in years

Tennessee Senate Race

Bob Corker (R)

$12,978,467

Harold E. Ford Jr (D)

$8,630,484

Chris Lugo (3)

$0

David Gatchell (I)

$0

Ed Choate (I)

$0

Emory (Bo) Heyward (I)

$0

Both Corker (R) and Ford (D) are moderate candidates and the results of this open-seat race may hinge on which way independent and moderate voters swing. At the end of September, Corker was $4.3 million ahead of his opponent in fundraising.

Texas District 17

Chet Edwards (D)*

$2,803,237

Van Taylor (R)

$2,276,599

Guillermo Acosta (L)

$0

Incumbent Edwards (D) only got 51% of the vote in 2004 in this District and the Republicans have a strong challenger in Iraq war veteran and businessman Taylor (R). Edwards has a huge lead in cash on hand.

Texas District 22

Nick Lampson (D)

$3,285,481

Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R)

$687,013

Bob Smither (L)

$21,823

Joseph Vincent Reasbeck (R)

$8,125

Giannibicego Hoa Tran (R)

$0

Steve Stockman (R)

$0

DeLay (R) will appear on the ballot, despite his attempt not to. This will force the GOP to run a write-in candidate, Sekula-Gibbs (R) against Lampson (D). Sekula Gibbs will be listed on a special election ballot to fill DeLay’s seat until January.

Texas District 23

Henry Bonilla (R)*

$3,278,005

Ciro D. Rodriguez (D)

$866,348

Lukin Gilliland Jr (D)

$615,156

Rick Balanos (D)

$24,600

Albert Uresti (D)

$23,150

August Garza "Augie" Beltran (D)

$21,598

Adrian Deleon (D)

$250

Craig T. Stephens (I)

$0

As a result of an order from the Supreme Court to have this district re-drawn, Bonilla (R) is involved in a more competitive race than anyone may have anticipated. Bonilla, however, still maintains a significant lead over Rodriguez (D) in cash on hand.

Virginia District 02

Thelma Drake (R)*

$1,971,066

Phil Kellam (D)

$1,101,769

Incumbent Drake (R) faces a strong challenger in Kellam (D). Drake has a nearly two to one advantage in fundraising but a smaller advantage in cash on hand.

Virginia Senate Race

George Allen (R)*

$14,845,295

James Webb (D)

$4,484,395

Glenda Gail Parker (3)

$18,772

Incumbent Allen (R) is using the money he had been amassing for the 2008 presidential race to fend off Webb (D), a former Republican. The war in Iraq is a major factor in this race. Webb is a Vietnam Vet and was Secretary of the Navy under Reagan.

Vermont District 01

Peter Welch (D)

$1,862,494

Martha T. Rainville (R)

$914,552

David Zuckerman (3)

$7,730

Dennis Morriseau (3)

$0

Jane Newton (3)

$0

Jerry Trudell (I)

$0

Keith Stern (I)

$0

Bruce R. Marshall (3)

$0

Chris Karr (3)

$0

The state is strongly Democratic but Republicans are likely to make a strong effort in this open seat race. The Democrats have settled on Peter Welch, the Republicans face a primary,

Washington District 08

Dave Reichert (R)*

$2,468,432

Darcy Burner (D)

$2,412,585

Burner hopes to become the first Democrat in the seat since its creation in 1980 -- and seems to have a shot at it. Reichert (R) had outraised his opponent at the end of September, but the national parties are pouring money in during the final stretch.

Washington Senate Race

Maria Cantwell (D)*

$17,848,103

Michael McGavick (R)

$8,621,136

Bruce Macclement Guthrie (L)

$1,237,687

Aaron L. Dixon (3)

$62,721

Robin Adair (I)

$16,175

Incumbent Cantwell (D) is favored in this Democratic leaning state but the Republicans have recruited a strong challenger in Safeco Corp and former congressional staffer McGavick (R). Cantwell has a huge lead in fund raising and cash on hand.

Wisconsin District 08

John Gard (R)

$2,265,518

Steven Leslie Kagen (D)

$2,229,943

The race for this open seat has unexpectedly turned close in the last stretch of the elections. Polls show Kagen (D) and Gard (R) neck-in-neck and the two have raised nearly identical amounts of money, though Kagen's campaign is largely self-funded.

West Virginia District 01

Alan B. Mollohan (D)*

$1,255,941

Chris Wakim (R)

$698,173

Ethical questions dogging Mollohan (D) have led Republicans nationwide to set their sights on his seat. Wakim (R), a member of the state’s House of Delegates, is challenging Mollohan and trailing him in fundraising.

Wyoming District 01

Barbara Cubin (R)*

$977,029

Gary Trauner (D)

$798,590

Thomas R. Rankin (L)

$0

Although President Bush won the state in 2004 with 69 percent of the vote, incumbent Cubin (R) has rarely performed as well as other GOP candidates in the state. Challenger Trauner (D) has some of his own money to spend and has kept fundraising close.

*Incumbent

 

Open Secrets (Estados Unidos)

 


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