03/11/2006 | USAŽ06-2006 Election Overview - Hot Races
Open Secrets Staff
We designate a race as "hot" based on a number of sources, including veteran election analysts Charlie Cook and Stuart Rothenberg and reports in Congressional Quarterly and Campaigns and Elections.
Most congressional races are not competitive; in 2004, 98% of House incumbents and 96% in the Senate won re-election. Those races expected to be competitive end up on our Hot Races list. We also include races if there is an unusual money angle—say, a self-financed millionaire candidate or some other unusual factor.
Arizona District 08
Gabrielle Giffords (D) |
$2,184,911 |
Randy Graf (R) |
$984,298 |
Jay Dudley Quick (I) |
$58,106 |
David F. Nolan (L) |
$15,357 | |
This is an open seat race in a district that leans Republican. Both parties face competitive primaries. |
Arizona Senate Race
Jon L. Kyl (R)* |
$13,043,204 |
Jim Pederson (D) |
$11,481,887 |
Richard Mack (L) |
$0 | |
Multimillionaire Pederson (D) takes on incumbent Kyl (R) in an attempt to gain Democratic control of the Senate. This is likely to be the most expensive Senate race in state history. |
California District 50
Francine P. Busby (D) |
$3,258,981 |
Brian P. Bilbray (R)* |
$2,174,726 |
Miriam E. Clark (3) |
$0 |
Paul King (L) |
$0 | |
Brian Bilbray (R) won an unexpectedly competitive race to replace Duke Cunningham in this seat. His special election opponent Francine Busby will face him again in November. |
Colorado District 07
Rick O'Donnell (R) |
$2,650,967 |
Edwin G. Perlmutter (D) |
$2,111,733 |
Roger McCarville (3) |
$0 | |
Incumbent Beauprez (R) is running for governor leaving the seat open. O’Donnell (R) lost the seat to Beauprez inn the 2004 primary election and now faces Ed Perlmutter (D) in the general election. Democrats have made the race a top target. |
Connecticut District 02
Rob Simmons (R)* |
$2,750,806 |
Joe Courtney (D) |
$1,782,503 | |
Because Bush’s job approval rating is abysmal in this district, incumbent Simmons (R) is trying to distance himself from the president. Courtney (D) lost to Simmons in 2004, but is doing well in fundraising this cycle. |
Connecticut District 04
Christopher Shays (R)* |
$3,193,031 |
Diane Goss Farrell (D) |
$2,740,473 |
Philip Maymin (L) |
$32,536 |
Richard A. Duffee (3) |
$0 | |
The incumbent Shays (R) narrowly beat Farrell (D) in 2004. This time Farrell has been fundraising at a torrid pace, but not enough to catch Shays just yet. Farrell faces the challenge of overcoming backlash about the handling of the war in Iraq. |
Connecticut Senate Race
Joe Lieberman (I)* |
$15,034,617 |
Ned Lamont (D) |
$9,045,679 |
Alan Schlesinger (R) |
$194,959 |
Ralph Ferrucci (3) |
$2,230 |
John Daniel Mertens (3) |
$721 | |
Primary challenger Lamont (D) defeated incumbent Lieberman (D). Lieberman is now running as an Independent in the general and Republican candidate Schlesinger doesn’t seem to stand a chance—Bush has even declined to endorse him. |
Florida District 13
Vernon Buchanan (R) |
$6,063,716 |
Christine Jennings (D) |
$1,303,937 | |
Despite raising nearly four times more than Jennings (D), Buchanan (R) is facing a toxic environment for Republicans nationally in his fight for this open seat. |
Florida District 22
E. Clay Shaw Jr. (R)* |
$3,916,290 |
Ron Klein (D) |
$3,235,816 |
Neil Evangelista (I) |
$7,950 | |
Shaw (R) faces a first-tier challenger for the first time since 2000. The district favored the Democrat in the last two presidential elections so the race should be competitive. |
Georgia District 08
Mac Collins (R) |
$1,523,921 |
Jim Marshall (D)* |
$1,494,122 | |
The district (formerly the 3rd) has been redrawn, leaving incumbent Marshall (D) more vulnerable. The challenger is former Rep Collins (R.) |
Georgia District 12
John Barrow (D)* |
$2,195,148 |
Max Burns (R) |
$1,843,751 | |
Although this district leans Democratic, polls show incumbent Barrow (D) in a neck-in-neck race with Burns (R), who is back for a rematch after being outseated by Barrow in 2004. Re-districting in 2005 will make this race even closer. |
Iowa District 01
Bruce Braley (D) |
$1,647,054 |
Mike Whalen (R) |
$1,440,074 |
James F. Hill (3) |
$0 |
Albert W. Schoeman (I) |
$0 | |
Like Colorado's 7th, this Republican held open seat favored Kerry in 2004. Braley (D) faces Whalen (R). Whalen has raised a little more than Braley. |
Iowa District 03
Leonard L. Boswell (D)* |
$1,761,563 |
Jeffrey Lamberti (R) |
$1,514,552 |
Helen Meyers (3) |
$0 | |
Moderate Democrat Boswell faces a formidable opponent in State Senate President Lamberti (R) this year. Lamberti has stature in Des Moines and is close to Boswell in fundraising. Boswell has also come under fire for economic challenges in the district. |
Idaho District 01
William T. Sali (R) |
$923,324 |
Larry L. Grant (D) |
$557,186 |
Andy Hedden-Nicely (3) |
$15,771 |
David Edwin Olson (I) |
$0 |
Paul Smith (3) |
$0 | |
Disassociating himself from the states GOP leaders may have helped Sali (R) win the primary, but the tactic is now hurting him against Grant (D). Sali has raised twice as much as Grant and has more cash in hand for the final stretch. |
Illinois District 06
Tammy Duckworth (D) |
$3,269,173 |
Peter Roskam (R) |
$2,459,989 | |
This Republican-held open seat favored Bush in 2004, but the Democrats have recruited Iraq veteran Duckworth to run. Duckworth has matched Roskam (R) in fundraising, but trails him in cash on hand. |
Illinois District 08
David McSweeney (R) |
$3,918,653 |
Melissa Bean (D)* |
$3,513,647 | |
This district went for Bush by 12 points in 2004, making this a top Republican target. The two candidates, incumbent Bean (D) and Crane (R), have raised more money combined than any other House race in the country as of the end of June. |
Indiana District 08
Brad Ellsworth (D) |
$1,466,903 |
John Hostettler (R)* |
$506,026 | |
Although incumbent Hostettler (R) has never taken much interest in fundraising, he has been elected six times. The GOP candidate is already lagging behind his opponent Ellsworth (D), who may be his strongest challenger yet. |
Indiana District 09
Michael E. Sodrel (R)* |
$2,402,290 |
Baron Hill (D) |
$1,536,268 |
Eric Schansberg (L) |
$20,462 | |
Hill (D) is trying to win back the seat he held until incumbent Sodrel (R) took it from him by fewer than 1,500 votes in 2004. Their closeness in fundraising and 2004 vote means the race could be pivotal in determining control of the House. |
Kentucky District 02
Ron Lewis (R)* |
$1,437,059 |
John Michael Weaver (D) |
$762,532 | |
Challenger Weaver (D) is a conservative state Representative who can appeal to Kentucky's moderates. Yet incumbent Lewis (R) has outraised the Democratic candidate by more than 2-to-1. |
Kentucky District 03
Anne M. Northup (R)* |
$2,976,705 |
John A. Yarmuth (D) |
$1,531,265 |
William Edward Parker (3) |
$0 |
Donna Walker Mancini (L) |
$0 | |
Incumbent Northup (R) has nearly $1 million more in cash on hand than challenger Yarmuth (D) going into the final stretch. Yet Yarmuth is running in a district that votes Democratic in presidential elections during a year favorable for his party. |
Kentucky District 04
Geoff Davis (R)* |
$3,287,655 |
Ken Lucas (D) |
$1,135,534 |
Brian Houillion (L) |
$0 | |
Bush won Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District with a crushing 63 percent of the vote in 2004 but changing national sentiment surrounding Republicans may help Lucas (D) take back the House seat he gave up to Davis (R) that year. |
Louisiana District 03
Charles J. Melancon (D)* |
$2,345,892 |
Craig F. Romero (R) |
$1,626,610 |
Olangee Breech (D) |
$4,462 |
James Lee Blake Jr (L) |
$0 | |
Freshman incumbent Melancon (D) won a close race in 2004 and faces a strong challenger in Craig Romero (R). Melancon (D) has a substantial lead in fund raising and cash on hand. |
Maryland Senate Race
Ben Cardin (D) |
$6,750,777 |
Michael Steele (R) |
$6,471,814 |
Kevin Zeese (3) |
$57,906 | |
The Republicans have already settled on Lt Governor Michael Steele for this open seat race. The Democrats face a competitive primary with Rep Cardin, former Rep Mfume and several other candidates. |
Michigan Senate Race
Deborah Ann Stabenow (D)* |
$11,674,966 |
Michael J. Bouchard (R) |
$4,557,492 |
Dennis Fitzsimons (3) |
$0 |
Leonard Schwartz (L) |
$0 |
Brett McAtee (3) |
$0 |
David Sole (3) |
$0 | |
In a strange turn of events, it is the Democratic incumbent (Stabenow) who is vulnerable. Bouchard (R) is far behind Stabenow in fundraising, but Republicans hold out hope that state politics sway the national race in their favor. |
Minnesota District 01
Gil Gutknecht (R)* |
$1,124,303 |
Timothy J. Walz (D) |
$759,040 | |
Although Democrats are providing support for their candidate, Walz, incumbent Gutknecht (R) has had more money to play with from the start. Yet a strong Democratic surge in the final weeks could mean a loss for the Republicans. |
Minnesota District 06
Patty Wetterling (D) |
$3,814,725 |
Michele Marie Bachmann (R) |
$1,958,931 |
John Paul Binkowski (3) |
$16,856 | |
The national fallout of the Mark Foley page scandal is evident here, where Wetterling (D), a well-known child safety advocate, has received an unexpected boost. Wetterling still has more cash on hand than Republican state senator Bachmann. |
Minnesota Senate Race
Mark Kennedy (R) |
$8,614,396 |
Amy Klobuchar (D) |
$7,922,161 |
Michael James Cavlan (3) |
$7,359 |
Robert Maxwell Fitzgerald (3) |
$7,130 |
Peter I. Idusogie (I) |
$3,165 |
Ben Powers (3) |
$0 | |
Mark Kennedy (R) is the Republican candidate for this open seat. The Democrats have a number of candidates running. |
Missouri Senate Race
James M. Talent (R)* |
$21,477,711 |
Claire McCaskill (D) |
$7,310,483 |
Lydia L. Lewis (3) |
$5,527 |
Frank Gilmour (L) |
$0 | |
Incumbent Talent (R) is trying to keep state auditor McCaskill (D) at bay by clinging to his clean record and accomplishments in the Senate. Talent has considerably outraised McCaskill in a race the Cook Political Report calls the bellwether contest. |
Montana Senate Race
Conrad Burns (R)* |
$8,300,779 |
Jon Tester (D) |
$4,302,249 | |
Incumbent Burns (R) is outraising his opponent, Tester (D), but has had to explain his ties to former lobbyist Abramoff and apologize for recent seemingly offensive comments about immigrants. |
North Carolina District 11
Charles H. Taylor (R)* |
$3,394,662 |
Heath Shuler (D) |
$1,526,551 | |
The Democrats recruited former NFL QB Heath Shuler to challenge incumbent Charles Taylor (R) |
Nebraska Senate Race
Pete Ricketts (R) |
$12,997,458 |
Ben Nelson (D)* |
$7,373,843 | |
Incumbent Ben Nelson (D) is a Democrat in a strongly Republican state. However, the strongest potential Republican challengers declined to run this year. |
New Hampshire District 02
Paul W. Hodes (D) |
$1,196,059 |
Charles Bass (R)* |
$918,789 |
Howard L. Wilson (I) |
$0 | |
Hodes (D) is hopeful that unlike his attempt in 2004, this time he can win against incumbent Bass (R). Bass has a solid financial advantage, but this district has begun to tilt Democratic, voting for Kerry with 52 percent of the vote in 2004. |
New Jersey District 07
Mike Ferguson (R)* |
$2,549,135 |
Linda D. Stender (D) |
$1,368,825 |
Thomas D. Abrams (3) |
$0 | |
Capitalizing on voters' anger toward the national GOP may be Democratic challenger Stender's best chance at unseating Ferguson (R). Ferguson, however, is ahead in fundraising and defeated a popular Democrat handily in the previous cycle. |
New Jersey Senate Race
Robert Menendez (D)* |
$10,476,057 |
Thomas H. Kean Jr (R) |
$5,628,975 |
Angela Lariscy (3) |
$0 |
Daryl Mikell Brooks (3) |
$0 |
Edward Forchion (3) |
$0 |
Gregory Pason (3) |
$0 |
Len Flynn (L) |
$0 |
N. Leonard Smith (3) |
$0 | |
Menendez (D) was appointed to the Senate after Corzine resigned to become Governor. He faces Kean (R), son of the former Governor. |
New Mexico District 01
Heather Wilson (R)* |
$4,314,611 |
Patricia A Madrid (D) |
$2,505,256 | |
Both Madrid (D) and incumbent Wilson (R) have name recognition and fundraising prowess, but Wilson must grapple with national sentiment that doesn’t favor the GOP. Both have also accepted controversial campaign contributions. |
Nevada District 02
Dean Heller (R) |
$1,515,787 |
Jill T. Derby (D) |
$1,088,221 |
Scott Babb (L) |
$0 |
James C. Kroshus (3) |
$0 |
Daniel Rosen (I) |
$0 | |
Derby (D) may not be able to win over the moderates and independents in the state, now that she's running against the more moderate Heller (R). The Democrat, however, has not been too far behind the GOP candidate and Democrats remain hopeful. |
Nevada District 03
Jon Porter (R)* |
$2,713,011 |
Tessa Hafen (D) |
$1,125,210 |
Joseph P. Silvestri (L) |
$0 |
Joshua Hansen (3) |
$0 | |
Challenger Hafen (D), an aide to Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, may be receiving help from her boss, but Porter (R) has won two solid victories in this district. Porter raised about $1.6 million more than Hafen, but now has less cash in hand. |
New York District 20
John E. Sweeney (R)* |
$2,400,141 |
Kirsten E. Gillibrand (D) |
$1,849,586 | |
With an energetic and aggressive campaign, Gillibrand (D) is trying to unseat incumbent Sweeney (R) in a strong Republican district. Given the huge anti-Republican surge in the state this year, she may be able to pull it off. Sweeney leads in fundraising. |
New York District 24
Raymond A. Meier (R) |
$1,276,792 |
Michael Arcuri (D) |
$1,253,398 |
Michael J, Sylvia III (L) |
$0 | |
After Boehlert's (R) retirement this has become competitive |
New York District 25
James T. Walsh (R)* |
$1,144,262 |
Dan Maffei (D) |
$660,803 | |
This Syracuse-based district may lean Democratic, but incumbent Walsh (R) has never gotten less than 55 percent of the vote. Challenger Maffei (D) is taking advantage of Bush's floundering approval ratings, yet trails his opponent in fundraising. |
New York District 29
John R. Kuhl Jr (R)* |
$1,285,450 |
Eric Massa (D) |
$1,140,213 | |
This race has become unexpectedly close for the most Republican district in the state. Democrats are taking advantage of the district's floundering economy to unseat incumbent Kuhl (R) with Massa (D). Massa has trailed Kuhl in fundraising. |
Ohio District 01
Steve Chabot (R)* |
$1,917,237 |
John Cranley (D) |
$1,854,266 | |
Chabot (R) seriously risks losing this seat to challenger Cranley (D), whom he defeated in 2000. Bush took just 51 percent of the vote in this district in the 2004 elections and Cranley is not far behind in fundraising. |
Ohio District 06
Charlie Wilson (D) |
$1,727,664 |
Chuck Blasdel (R) |
$981,218 | |
Both parties have recruited strong candidates - Wilson (D) and Blasdel (R) for this open seat race. Wilson currently has a large lead in fund raising and a small lead in cash on hand. |
Ohio District 15
Deborah Pryce (R)* |
$3,858,905 |
Mary Jo Kilroy (D) |
$2,383,165 |
Charles Morrison (I) |
$6,583 |
Scott Joseph Wesseler (3) |
$50 | |
The scandal surrounding ex-Rep. Mark Foley of Florida is not helping Pryce (R), the No. 4 Republican in the House. Kilroy (D) is a solid candidate and, although she is behind in fundraising, anti-incumbent sentiment in the state has boosted her chances. |
Ohio District 18
Zachary T. Space (D) |
$844,970 |
Joy Padgett (R) |
$687,377 | |
Ney (R) quit this district’s race in early August and will plead guilty in a corruption investigation focusing on his dealings with former lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Democrat Zack Space, a lawyer, is now battling state Sen. Joy Padgett for Ney’s seat. |
Ohio Senate Race
Mike DeWine (R)* |
$13,267,384 |
Sherrod Brown (D) |
$6,619,010 |
Richard Duncan (I) |
$0 | |
DeWine (R) has been popular in past elections, but the multiple scandals that have ensnared his colleagues at the state and federal level may be enough for Brown (D) to take this seat from him. DeWine, however, leads in fundraising. |
Pennsylvania District 04
Melissa Hart (R)* |
$1,868,114 |
Jason Altmire (D) |
$657,972 | |
Though Democrats outnumber Republicans here, Hart (R) has continued to win comfortably. Hart may be hurt this year by the fact that she is a party loyalist and supported ex-House Majority leader DeLay (R), giving Altmire (D) a real chance. |
Pennsylvania District 06
Jim Gerlach (R)* |
$3,100,204 |
Lois Murphy (D) |
$2,766,891 | |
Incumbent Gerlach (R) beat Murphy (D) in 2004 by only 6,400 votes. Murphy is back for a rematch. The district favored Kerry over Bush in 2004 so this is likely to be a very competitive race. The candidates are close in fund raising and cash on hand. |
Pennsylvania District 08
Michael G. Fitzpatrick (R)* |
$2,677,320 |
Patrick J. Murphy (D) |
$1,614,968 | |
Murphy (D) is a highly touted veteran of the Iraq war, making him appealing to moderates who may otherwise vote Republican. Democrats have used conservative incumbent Fitzpatrick's (R) support for President Bush against him. |
Pennsylvania District 10
Don Sherwood (R)* |
$1,843,528 |
Chris Carney (D) |
$1,164,155 | |
This district may be heavily Republican, but anti-incumbent sentiment in the state, combined with the publicity surrounding Republican incumbent Sherwood's extramarital affair may be enough for challenger Carney (D) to win here. |
Pennsylvania Senate Race
Rick Santorum (R)* |
$24,988,041 |
Bob Casey (D) |
$14,995,803 |
Carl J. Romanelli (3) |
$15,394 | |
Santorum (R) is one of the most vulnerable incumbents this year, trailing challenger Casey (D) in the polls. This the most expensive competitive 2006 Senate race as of the end of August. |
Rhode Island Senate Race
Sheldon Whitehouse (D) |
$4,953,950 |
Lincoln D. Chafee (R)* |
$3,975,009 | |
Though Chafee (R) has often broken with his party (he did not vote for Bush in 2004), while primary challenger Laffey is more conservative, the national party helped Chafee win, ensuring a close race against Whitehouse (D) in the general election. |
South Carolina District 05
John M. Spratt Jr. (D)* |
$2,136,029 |
Ralph Norman (R) |
$1,288,488 | |
This could be incumbent John Spratt's (D) first competitive race in years |
Tennessee Senate Race
Bob Corker (R) |
$12,978,467 |
Harold E. Ford Jr (D) |
$8,630,484 |
Chris Lugo (3) |
$0 |
David Gatchell (I) |
$0 |
Ed Choate (I) |
$0 |
Emory (Bo) Heyward (I) |
$0 | |
Both Corker (R) and Ford (D) are moderate candidates and the results of this open-seat race may hinge on which way independent and moderate voters swing. At the end of September, Corker was $4.3 million ahead of his opponent in fundraising. |
Texas District 17
Chet Edwards (D)* |
$2,803,237 |
Van Taylor (R) |
$2,276,599 |
Guillermo Acosta (L) |
$0 | |
Incumbent Edwards (D) only got 51% of the vote in 2004 in this District and the Republicans have a strong challenger in Iraq war veteran and businessman Taylor (R). Edwards has a huge lead in cash on hand. |
Texas District 22
Nick Lampson (D) |
$3,285,481 |
Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) |
$687,013 |
Bob Smither (L) |
$21,823 |
Joseph Vincent Reasbeck (R) |
$8,125 |
Giannibicego Hoa Tran (R) |
$0 |
Steve Stockman (R) |
$0 | |
DeLay (R) will appear on the ballot, despite his attempt not to. This will force the GOP to run a write-in candidate, Sekula-Gibbs (R) against Lampson (D). Sekula Gibbs will be listed on a special election ballot to fill DeLay’s seat until January. |
Texas District 23
Henry Bonilla (R)* |
$3,278,005 |
Ciro D. Rodriguez (D) |
$866,348 |
Lukin Gilliland Jr (D) |
$615,156 |
Rick Balanos (D) |
$24,600 |
Albert Uresti (D) |
$23,150 |
August Garza "Augie" Beltran (D) |
$21,598 |
Adrian Deleon (D) |
$250 |
Craig T. Stephens (I) |
$0 | |
As a result of an order from the Supreme Court to have this district re-drawn, Bonilla (R) is involved in a more competitive race than anyone may have anticipated. Bonilla, however, still maintains a significant lead over Rodriguez (D) in cash on hand. |
Virginia District 02
Thelma Drake (R)* |
$1,971,066 |
Phil Kellam (D) |
$1,101,769 | |
Incumbent Drake (R) faces a strong challenger in Kellam (D). Drake has a nearly two to one advantage in fundraising but a smaller advantage in cash on hand. |
Virginia Senate Race
George Allen (R)* |
$14,845,295 |
James Webb (D) |
$4,484,395 |
Glenda Gail Parker (3) |
$18,772 | |
Incumbent Allen (R) is using the money he had been amassing for the 2008 presidential race to fend off Webb (D), a former Republican. The war in Iraq is a major factor in this race. Webb is a Vietnam Vet and was Secretary of the Navy under Reagan. |
Vermont District 01
Peter Welch (D) |
$1,862,494 |
Martha T. Rainville (R) |
$914,552 |
David Zuckerman (3) |
$7,730 |
Dennis Morriseau (3) |
$0 |
Jane Newton (3) |
$0 |
Jerry Trudell (I) |
$0 |
Keith Stern (I) |
$0 |
Bruce R. Marshall (3) |
$0 |
Chris Karr (3) |
$0 | |
The state is strongly Democratic but Republicans are likely to make a strong effort in this open seat race. The Democrats have settled on Peter Welch, the Republicans face a primary, |
Washington District 08
Dave Reichert (R)* |
$2,468,432 |
Darcy Burner (D) |
$2,412,585 | |
Burner hopes to become the first Democrat in the seat since its creation in 1980 -- and seems to have a shot at it. Reichert (R) had outraised his opponent at the end of September, but the national parties are pouring money in during the final stretch. |
Washington Senate Race
Maria Cantwell (D)* |
$17,848,103 |
Michael McGavick (R) |
$8,621,136 |
Bruce Macclement Guthrie (L) |
$1,237,687 |
Aaron L. Dixon (3) |
$62,721 |
Robin Adair (I) |
$16,175 | |
Incumbent Cantwell (D) is favored in this Democratic leaning state but the Republicans have recruited a strong challenger in Safeco Corp and former congressional staffer McGavick (R). Cantwell has a huge lead in fund raising and cash on hand. |
Wisconsin District 08
John Gard (R) |
$2,265,518 |
Steven Leslie Kagen (D) |
$2,229,943 | |
The race for this open seat has unexpectedly turned close in the last stretch of the elections. Polls show Kagen (D) and Gard (R) neck-in-neck and the two have raised nearly identical amounts of money, though Kagen's campaign is largely self-funded. |
West Virginia District 01
Alan B. Mollohan (D)* |
$1,255,941 |
Chris Wakim (R) |
$698,173 | |
Ethical questions dogging Mollohan (D) have led Republicans nationwide to set their sights on his seat. Wakim (R), a member of the state’s House of Delegates, is challenging Mollohan and trailing him in fundraising. |
Wyoming District 01
Barbara Cubin (R)* |
$977,029 |
Gary Trauner (D) |
$798,590 |
Thomas R. Rankin (L) |
$0 | |
Although President Bush won the state in 2004 with 69 percent of the vote, incumbent Cubin (R) has rarely performed as well as other GOP candidates in the state. Challenger Trauner (D) has some of his own money to spend and has kept fundraising close. |
*Incumbent
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