Shabtai Shavit, one of the longest-serving directors of the Israeli spy agency Mossad, has said that Israel and the world cannot stop Iran from developing a nuclear arsenal, and should focus instead on establishing a deterrence mechanism.
Shavit, who is now 80, rose through the
ranks of the secretive intelligence agency and became its director in
1989, under Labor Party leader Yitzhak Rabin. He stepped down in 1996
and was succeeded by Danny Yatom.
Shavit has rarely spoken since his
retirement from the intelligence world. But earlier this month he gave
an interview to David Horovitz, founding editor of The Times of Israel Newspaper. The former spy chief’s book, Head of the Mossad,
which was published in Hebrew in 2018, is expected to become available
in English in September. Horovitz said he spoke to Shavit on June 2 of
this year. The English-language translation of the interview was published by The Times of Israel on July 8.
In the interview, Shavit is sharply
critical of Israel’s Prime Minster, Benjamin Netanyahu, whom he accuses
of “not making decisions as a statesman”. Instead of being
statesmanlike, says Shavit, Netanyahu makes decisions on matters such as
Israel’s national security, or the coronavirus, with reference to his
trial for alleged corruption. Under Netanyahu’s leadership, says Shavit,
Israel’s standing “is among the worst in decades” internationally, with
the exception of the United States. But that alliance is also in doubt,
as President Donald Trump’s re-election in November —a prospect Shavit
calls “a catastrophe for the United States and the world”— is doubtful.
On the issue of Iran, Shavit says he is
obligated to speak, not as politician or other public figure, but as an
intelligence officer, and thus consider the worst possible outcome for
Israel. He argues that the worst-case scenario is that Tehran will
refuse to abandon its ambition to develop a nuclear arsenal. If Iran
decides to pursue that goal with full speed, it would be very difficult
—even impossible— for Israel to avert such an eventuality. However, the
Jewish state could potentially deter Iran from using a nuclear weapon,
he argues.
For this to happen, Israel must recognize
that Iran’s prime rationale “is not necessarily: ‘I want to have a bomb
in order to drop it on Tel Aviv’”, says Shavit. On the contrary, its
prime rationale is to elevate its “influence and status” in the region,
primarily vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Israel.
Additionally, the regime in Tehran is seeking to develop nuclear weapons
in order to attain what Shavit calls “immunity” from a potential
military attack by the United States.
Once Israel recognizes that Iran is not
necessarily intent on destroying the Jewish state, it can stop trying to
prevent Tehran from building nuclear weapons, and seek instead to deter
it from using them. It can do so, says Shavit, by convincing the
Iranians that “Iran will cease to exist” if it decides to make use of
its nuclear arsenal. This policy of deterrence can be exercised no
matter whether the clerics remain in charge in Tehran, or whether they
are removed from power by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
—something that Shavit believes is possible.
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