A surge in absentee ballots cast in states across the country is handing Democrats an early advantage heading into Election Day amid signs that the party’s vote-by-mail focus is turning out regular and new voters alike.
More
than 6 million Americans have already voted in 27 states for November’s general
election, according to data released by states that have begun accepting
ballots.
Registered
Democrats have returned 1.4 million ballots, more than twice the 653,000 ballots
registered Republicans have returned so far, according to Michael McDonald, a
political scientist at the University of Florida who analyzes early voting.
About
two-thirds of voters who have already voted — 3.7 million Americans — are either
unaffiliated with either party or live in states that do not register voters by
party. Demographic modeling by one prominent Democratic firm, TargetSmart,
estimates that almost 3 million of all votes cast have come from Democratic
voters, compared to about 2.1 million from Republicans.
Regardless
of party affiliation, more people are voting by mail this year than in years
past. The coronavirus pandemic and both Democratic and Republican efforts to
get their most hardened supporters to vote by mail has led to an explosion in
the early vote.
At this
point in the 2016 presidential contest, only around 750,000 people had voted,
about 13 percent of the number of voters who have cast a ballot this year. In
Wisconsin, South Dakota and Virginia, early votes account for more than
one-fifth of the total number of votes cast in the entire 2016 election,
McDonald’s data show.
So far
this year, women, college-educated white voters, African Americans and Hispanic
voters account for larger shares of the electorate than they did in 2016, a
hopeful sign for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, who leads
substantially among those groups.
Noncollege
educated white voters, who make up the core of President Trump’s base, are also
voting early in unprecedented numbers. So far, an estimated 2.8 million of
those voters have cast ballots, nearly seven times the number who had voted at
this point four years ago.
But
those voters make up a smaller share of the overall electorate today, 49
percent, than in 2016, when they accounted for 58 percent. The college-educated
white vote has grown to nearly 35 percent of the electorate, up from 30.3
percent four years ago, while the share of Black voters in the electorate has
nearly doubled, to 9.2 percent.
“It’s
not that white noncollege voters aren’t voting. They’re voting in way higher
rates,” said Tom Bonier, who heads TargetSmart. “They’re coming out, but their
surge can’t keep up with the surge of these traditional Democratic
constituencies.”
Targeting
experts on both sides cautioned that early vote tallies are not rock-solid
indicators of the results on Election Day. Four years ago, Democratic nominee
Hillary Clinton held leads over Trump among those who decided to vote early.
But
Democrats have early leads today that are more substantial than those they
carried in 2016.
In
Florida, registered Democrats had out-voted registered Republicans by a slim 37
percent to 35 percent margin by this point in 2016. Today, almost 53 percent of
votes cast in Florida have come from registered Democrats, while Republicans
account for just 28 percent.
In North
Carolina, registered Democrats have cast 52 percent of all ballots so far, up
from 36 percent four years ago. Registered Republicans account for just 17
percent of the ballots, down from 37 percent in 2016.
And in
Pennsylvania, a state at the heart of Trump’s reelection strategy, registered
Democrats have cast more than three-quarters of all ballots. Republicans made
up just 15 percent of ballots returned to date.
“The
fact that you have such a massive Democratic head start, that to me makes it
much more difficult for the Trump campaign to play catchup,” said John
Couvillon, a Louisiana pollster keeping tabs on early vote statistics.
Both
parties use voter files cross-matched with absentee ballot reports to hone
their target lists. Once someone casts their ballot, the two sides do not need
to spend any more time or money trying to persuade or mobilize that voter. That
allows a campaign to spend its time and money more efficiently.
“If
they’re banking all their voters now, they can extend their energy now to
chasing down those who are marginal voters,” Couvillon said. “They have more
time to chase people who could be their voters.”
In 2016,
Clinton’s lead among the earliest voters came from those who were already
likely to cast their ballots. Trump’s surge, especially in states like Florida,
came from new voters or those who voted only infrequently. Republicans see
Democrats banking the same votes this year.
“The
Democrats are so far, by and large, turning out people to vote absentee that
would have likely either voted on Election Day or voted early in person,” said
Mark Stephenson, who runs Red Oak Strategic, an analytics firm that works with
Republican and corporate clients.
Today,
those new and infrequent voters favor Democrats. More than twice as many voters
who have never cast a ballot are registered Democrats as registered
Republicans. TargetSmart’s figures estimate that the Democratic share of those
first-time voters is slimmer, when unaffiliated voters are factored in; Bonier
estimates Democratic voters make up about 44 percent of the first-time
electorate, while first-time Republicans account for 35 percent.
Those
figures mean Democrats could begin Election Day with a clear advantage in the
number of votes cast from their registered voters.
But
because of election rules in some states, that also means Trump could appear to
begin with a lead when polls close. Many states prohibit election
administrators from opening absentee ballots before the polls close, meaning
votes cast on Election Day will be counted and reported first.
The
early voting numbers validate months of polling that has found Americans are
more excited and enthusiastic about this year’s election than those in years
past — even among voters who have never gone or rarely go to the polls.
“We’re
looking at multipliers of five, six, seven times more infrequent voters,”
Bonier said. “We’ve been reading the tea leaves for months now. Now the votes
are actually coming in.”
***Video:
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/520306-democrats-surge-past-republicans-in-early-voting