SAN ANTONIO - Many Texas Democrats had eyed 2024 as the year when what has been elusive for so long might just happen: their state's growing, diversifying electorate would make them truly competitive statewide.
But that
timeline seems to have sped up, spurred not just by demographic changes that
have been underway for years but also by the repelling power of President
Donald Trump and the burst of liberal activism he has inspired.
In the
four years since the last presidential election, at least 2 million people have
moved to Texas, many of them Democrats from places like California, Florida,
New York and Illinois. An estimated 800,000 young Latino Americans have turned
18, and a wave of immigrants became naturalized citizens. More than 3 million
Texans have registered to vote.
Trump's
polarizing presidency has motivated many Democrats into action and pushed some
independents and Republicans - especially those living in urban and suburban
areas - to protest the president's divisive rhetoric and actions, including his
treatment of migrants, lack of concern about police brutality and handling of
the pandemic that has killed more than 17,500 Texans.
Since
early voting started two weeks ago, more than 7.2 million Texans have cast a
ballot, which is 80% of the overall number cast in 2016 - a stunning rate,
especially in a state that often has one of the lowest levels of voter
participation in the nation. Unlike other states, Texas does not track the
political party of those casting early votes.
This
burst of enthusiasm at the polls, which follows a dramatic expansion of
Democratic organizing across the state, is putting increasing pressure on Joe
Biden to invest in Texas in the next week as surveys continue to show he and
Trump running nearly neck-and-neck. His running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris,
D-Calif., is planning to visit Texas on Friday, as was first reported by the
Houston Chronicle, a rare move for a vice-presidential candidate of any party
so close to Election Day.
Kirsten
Iyare, 21, is part of the vanguard for Democrats voting for the first time
Thursday at San Antonio's AT&T Center at the urging of a college classmate
at Trinity University and after seeing so many friends post Snapchat videos of
their voting stickers. A Black woman who grew up in a low-income Houston
neighborhood, she said Trump has hurt marginalized communities of color like
her own. She didn't feel enthusiastic about voting for Biden. But at the urging
of her classmate, she voted for him anyway.
"We're
all becoming agents of change," Iyare said. "We are the people who
have to carry the torch now."
The same
dynamic making Texas more competitive in the presidential contest and buoying
the Democratic nominee in a U.S. Senate race is playing out in Arizona and
Georgia, states long dominated by Republicans. It follows a similar Democratic
rebirth in Virginia and Colorado that predated Trump; both are predictably blue
now as newcomers have altered the states' demographic makeup. North Carolina
and, this year, even South Carolina have seen Democrats grow more competitive
for the same reasons.
"What
you're watching in our state is the metamorphosis," said Julián Castro,
the former mayor of San Antonio and housing secretary who ran for the
Democratic presidential nomination. "We have an opportunity to remake the
electoral map."
In all
of the changing states, the impact is larger than the presidential race.
Several Texas Republican strategists say they are increasingly worried about
keeping control of the Texas House - where Democrats are nine seats away from
taking over just as that body prepares to take up redistricting, which could
lock in power for another 10 years. They also fear losing at least four
congressional seats the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has
aggressively targeted. Last week, a Democratic super PAC began spending
millions of dollars on advertising to support Biden and the Democratic
candidate for U.S. Senate, MJ Hegar, which Republicans say will be nearly
impossible for them to match in the final days of the campaign.
Texas
GOP Chairman Allen B. West said early-voting turnout for Republicans has been
strong, and despite recent polling, he expects his party to gain seats in the
Texas House and the U.S. House. "We'll be fine," he said.
Democrats
have less chance of flipping statehouse chambers in Arizona and Georgia,
although they hope to pick up more seats and have more say during
redistricting. Biden is narrowly leading in polls in both states, and Democrats
are hopeful of flipping Senate seats there.
The
Trump campaign scoffed at the suggestion that states like Texas are
competitive, although the president took care to mention the state twice in the
final debate Thursday.
"Joe
Biden's campaign is left to fabricate narratives and waste money on states he
can't win, like Texas," said Samantha Zager, deputy national press
secretary for the Trump campaign. She mocked other Democrats who wrongly
thought they might ride new Texas voters to victory: "While Biden and the
Democrats are welcome to spend as much money as they'd like in Texas, they may
want to check with Gov. Wendy Davis, Sen. Beto O'Rourke and President Hillary
Clinton on how that worked out for them."
Some
Democratic strategists have urged Biden not to be distracted by Texas and to
continue to focus on the states that narrowly decided the last presidential
election: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida. So far, he is
listening: He has not been to Texas since just before the Democratic primary
there, which he won, greatly easing his path to the nomination.
But the
campaign has sent high-profile surrogates: In early October, Harris's husband,
Doug Emhoff, visited South Texas and San Antonio, both areas Democrats are
worried about. Jill Biden visited El Paso, Dallas and Houston on the first day
of early voting. The day before, she was in Georgia, where Joe Biden will
campaign Tuesday.
The
pleas from many Texas Democrats for more attention have intensified as recent
polls have shown Trump leading Biden by an average of only three percentage
points in a state that he won by nine points four years ago.
"They've
invested close to zero dollars in the state of Texas, and they're doing this
well already," said O'Rourke, who nearly beat Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, in
2018, unsuccessfully ran for president and started the group Powered by People,
which has made 6 million calls and sent more than 40 million text messages to
registered voters. "Imagine if they invested some real dollars."
The
Biden campaign notes that it has more than 60 staffers working in the state - a
massive increase from Hillary Clinton's campaign in 2016 - and has opened 18
campaign supply centers. Biden's campaign has spent more than $7.3 million on
advertising in Texas since May, while Trump's has spent more than $7.7 million,
according to an analysis by Advertising Analytics.
As
Trump's support in Texas seems to have slipped, Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, who
Hegar is challenging, has distanced himself from the president. Recent polls
have shown Cornyn leading by an average of seven percentage points, suggesting
he is doing better in the state than Trump.
The
complicated dynamics of the Democratic outreach played out in a virtual news
conference last week that Texas Democrats and the Biden campaign held to
spotlight a handful of Republicans who planned to vote for Biden because of
their disdain for Trump. But when a question about Cornyn arose, former
congressman Steve Bartlett said he's still a Republican, even if he's voting
for Biden.
"We
support the down-ballot Republicans, particularly John Cornyn. I can tell you
that he has been a source of quiet strength in the Senate and in the Republican
Party and quiet strength toward Donald Trump," Bartlett said, as several
Democrats on the call awkwardly shifted in their Zoom windows. "I think
John Cornyn . . . will be a voice of reason and a voice of coming together and
a voice of rebuilding the traditional Republican Party."
Mike
Collier, a senior adviser to Biden in Texas, jumped in to say he hoped Cornyn's
Democratic challenger wins.
Over the
past few months, Democratic organizers have targeted residents who recently
moved to Texas and might not be registered, young voters who have not voted
before, immigrant communities that have long been overlooked by both parties
and Republicans who crossed party lines in 2018.
One of
their targets is the 22nd Congressional District in the Houston suburbs, one of
the fastest growing districts in the country and one that has long been
represented by Republicans. The incumbent, Republican Rep. Pete Olson, is
retiring after nearly losing in 2018 to Sri Preston Kulkarni, a Democrat and
former Foreign Service officer who is running again this year.
Although
national Democrats didn't think the district could flip in 2018, Kulkarni was
optimistic because about 60% of those who live in the district are people of
color and about a quarter are immigrants.
"I
said, 'Why aren't we talking to these immigrants who are here?' And I was told:
'Well, don't bother with them because immigrants don't vote. Especially don't
bother with the Asian community because the easiest way to lose an election is
to talk to people who don't vote,'" said Kulkarni, whose campaign reached
out to voters in more than two dozen languages, six of which he speaks himself.
After
his loss, Kulkarni traveled to the Atlanta suburbs to learn from the New
Georgia Project's voter registration efforts.
"Those
parallels between Georgia and Texas - we're both moving in the same direction.
The only difference is that Texas is bigger," he said.
Kulkarni
has also been connecting with suburban residents who used to vote for
Republicans but have been turned off by, among other things, the response to
the pandemic. More than half of those living in the district have college
degrees, he said, and it has the highest number of doctors of any district in the
state. His Republican opponent, Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls, has said
mask mandates are "unprecedented overreach which looks more like a
communist dictatorship than a free Republic."
"People
understand science here," Kulkarni said.
In
places where there are competitive congressional and statehouse races -
especially in the Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth areas - record numbers of
voters have cast early ballots this year. But Democrats are worried about the
Rio Grande Valley along the border in Southern Texas, a heavily Hispanic and
Democratic region where early voting rates are slightly higher than in 2016 but
not by much. For months, the state party has been targeting the valley.
The Rio
Grande Valley has seen a burst of Republican enthusiasm under Trump. His
supporters have regularly gathered in border towns for what they call a
"Trump Train," a procession of hundreds of vehicles, many of them
decorated with Trump flags and signs.
A recent
caravan in Laredo, Texas, passed near members of the No Border Wall Coalition,
who were freshening the bright-yellow painting spelling out "Defund the
wall" on a street. The Trump supporters honked and expressed their support
for the president, and the tension spilled over onto social media, where
neighbors snapped at one another.
Police
officers are now assigned to a Laredo early voting site after reports of
harassment and an incident last week in which a group of Trump supporters
blasting loud music surrounded Democratic Party volunteers in a parking lot
near a polling place.
"They
were there to intimidate and scare," said Sylvia Bruni, Webb County's
Democratic Party chair. "We are a Democrat community, but there is a small
percentage of Republicans that was always quiet, concentrated mainly in the
wealthy neighborhoods of north Laredo. But now those neighborhoods are awash
with Trump signs. You'd never see that before."
Democrats
have been staging their own pro-Biden caravans and leaving information about
Biden on doors in some of the low-income communities that run along the river
where Trump is building his infamous wall.
Aron
Peña - a former Democrat and precinct chair for the Hidalgo County Republican
Party further down the Rio Grande - said Trump's message resonates with many
border residents, including some of the region's highest wage earners: federal
law enforcement. The federal government is one of the largest employers in the
region.
"The
children of Border Patrol, the wives of federal officers and their families are
watching their loved ones being demonized. At some point, they are going to
push back," Peña said. "These are locals, and they are vocal on
social media."
The
tension with Laredo's newly vocal right wing has inspired dormant Democratic
voters to exercise their rights, Bruni said. After the Trump caravans began in
September, about 3,000 residents showed up at the Democratic Party headquarters
looking to re-register or check their voting status. Registrations had been
sporadic before then, she said.
"It
shocked people into action," said Bruni, describing a wide range of ages
and circumstances among the arrivals. One man was so adamant about ensuring he
would not be turned away at the polls that he had Bruni call the elections
office even though he had his voter registration card in hand.
"Chequele,"
Bruni recalled the man insisting in Spanglish that she double-check. "I
need to be sure."
https://www.greenwichtime.com/news/article/Sun-Belt-grows-bluer-and-more-competitive-15677609.php
***Jenna
Johnson and Arelis Hernandez, The Washington Post
**Johnson
reported from Washington. The Washington Post's Emily Guskin, Chelsea Janes and
Anu Narayanswamy contributed to this report.