AWACs, surveillance planes on two reef bases signal routine PLA air operations from Spratlys.
China’s
military recently deployed electronic warning and surveillance aircraft and
helicopters on two disputed islands in the South China Sea in what analysts say
is a sign that the People’s Liberation Army has begun routine air operations
from the bases.
Satellite
images obtained by The Washington Times show deployments in May and June of PLA
KJ-500 airborne warning and control aircraft to Mischief Reef in the Spratly
Islands. Other satellite photos showed the stationing of a Y-9 transport
aircraft and Z-8 helicopter to Subi Reef in June and this month.
Last
year, KQ-200 anti-submarine warfare aircraft were deployed on a third island
base on Fiery Cross Reef.
In the
past, military aircraft made occasional stops at bases built since 2013 as part
of a major campaign by the Chinese military to expand power and protect its
broad claims to sovereignty over the strategic waterway.
The two
reefs are part of a triangle of South China Sea military bases that China
equipped with advanced missiles in 2018 — contrary to what U.S. officials said
was a pledge by President Xi Jinping not to militarize the islands, which are
claimed by China and several other regional states.
The
bases can house all types of warplanes and bombers and contain docking
facilities capable of handling most Chinese warships.
Satellite
imagery of the military aircraft was obtained by J. Michael Dahm, a former Navy
intelligence officer currently with Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics
Laboratory, known as APL.
“The
most significant change in military posture in 2021 is the appearance of
Chinese special mission aircraft and helicopters at Subi and Mischief Reefs,
indicating the PLA may have commenced routine air operations from those
airfields,” Mr. Dahm said in an interview.
The PLA
deployments were discovered after the publication of a research report by Mr.
Dahm that revealed the locations of anti-aircraft, anti-ship and land-attack
strike missiles on three of China’s seven island-reefs, including Mischief and
Subi reefs.
Using
commercial satellite imagery, the report identified PLA missile emplacements on
both reefs and both ends of Fiery Cross Reef, the third of the Spratly Islands.
The
three islands have 9,000-foot runways capable of handling all types of military
aircraft, including nuclear-capable H-6 bombers. They are part of seven small
islands and reefs in the Spratlys that are central to Beijing’s effort to
establish military control over the South China Sea.
“The
island-reefs fill critical gaps in PLA navy capabilities in the South China
Sea, especially in terms of reconnaissance and air power, until China’s
aircraft carrier program matures,” Mr. Dahm said.
Strike
fighters, surveillance aircraft and island-based anti-surface and anti-air
missile systems “will likely be employed to cover and defend Chinese naval
forces, giving them the ability to project military power deep into the South
China Sea and Southeast Asia,” he added.
Tangled
claims
The Spratlys are claimed by China, Taiwan,
Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia, but they have been dominated since 2018
by China and its bases.
Tensions
escalated in the sea this week as a Chinese warship tried — unsuccessfully,
according to the U.S. Navy — to force the guided-missile destroyer USS Benfold
to leave areas near the Paracel Islands in the northern part of the South China
Sea.
Beijing
officials on Monday denounced a statement by Secretary of State Antony Blinken
hailing the fifth anniversary of an international tribunal ruling that ruled
against China’s claim to own 90% of the sea under the “Nine-Dash Line”
boundary.
Mr.
Blinken reaffirmed Sunday a year-old policy shift announcing that any Chinese
military attack on Philippine military or civilian vessels or aircraft in the
South China Sea would trigger the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty.
The APL
report, published in March, provides the first public details of Chinese
missile emplacements based on open-source information.
The
missiles are part of what the report called a PLA war plan to “gain and
maintain information control in a military conflict.”
In 2018,
Adm. Philip Davidson, then-commander of the Indo-Pacific Command, told Congress
that China’s military buildup on the disputed islands had changed the balance
of power in a waterway that carries some $5 trillion annually in global trade.
“In
short, China is now capable of controlling the South China Sea in all scenarios
short of war with the United States,” Adm. Davidson bluntly said at the time.
Since
then, the Pentagon has stepped up Navy warship passages and aerial surveillance
flights in the South China Sea to contest Chinese maritime claims.
The APL
report states that “the island-reefs have already been weaponized with
significant information capabilities – command, control, communications,
computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance.”
The
report states that Chinese warships deployed in the regions provide a larger
number of missiles than those deployed on the islands. It says the main
strategic benefit of the island bases is for surveillance and coordination of
forces in a military conflict.
Most of
the arms on the islands are road-mobile and movable, including mobile missiles,
large aircraft, fighter jets and helicopters.
Other
reports have identified deployments in the Spratlys of advanced HQ-9
surface-to-air missiles and YJ-12 anti-ship cruise missiles on Fiery Cross,
Subi and Mischief Reef in 2018.
“The
island reefs are equipped to provide the PLA with superior battlespace
awareness and a decided information advantage in any future military conflict
in the South China Sea,” the APL report said.
Each of
the three airfields at the major islands is equipped with 24 aircraft hangers
designed for jet fighters, a regiment of warplanes.
The
report warns that China could deploy anti-ship ballistic missiles to the
islands.
Mr. Dahm
said no major changes to the military infrastructure appear to have been made
since 2018, based on the commercial satellite images.
“The
major island-reefs — Fiery Cross, Subi and Mischief Reefs — are large enough to
accommodate virtually any mobile weapon system or aircraft in the PLA
inventory,” he said. “Vehicles have been seen moving around the three major
island-reefs, but commercial satellite imagery has been unable to identify
these as weapons, reconnaissance systems or simply transport trucks.”
Mr. Dahm
said AWACs aircraft were spotted on Mischief Reef several times in May and
June. A Y-9 transport and a Z-8 helicopter were seen on Subi Reef in June and
this month.
An
AWACs, KJ-500 surveillance aircraft, KJ-200 anti-submarine aircraft and Z-8
were first seen operating from Fiery Cross Reef in May 2020.
Mr. Dahm
said one concern is the increasing range of the Chinese weapons that can be
based on the newly militarized islands.
“Essentially,
the PLA can strike at long range before those Chinese weapons can be attacked
by an enemy,” he said. “To address a range disparity with Chinese forces, U.S.
and allied militaries must either rapidly develop new, long-range strike
capabilities or develop tactics to maneuver within range of Chinese targets
without being detected and struck first by long-range PLA weapons.”
Integrating
for war
Mr. Dahm said the significant military strike
weapons on the islands are part of an integrated network of military systems.
“This
evolving system-of-systems includes a growing fleet of ships, mainland-based
aircraft and space-based capabilities,” he said.
Phillip
Orchard, an analyst at Geopolitical Futures, a consulting group, said the
Chinese bases in the sea provide Beijing strategists with key military
outposts.
“The
surveillance, communications and logistics capabilities they house make it
easier than ever for legions of Chinese vessels to occupy disputed areas in
perpetuity, swiftly overwhelm interlopers, and assert de facto control over the
waters and marine resources claimed by others,” Mr. Orchard wrote in a report
for Geopolitical Futures.
“But in
an actual, prolonged conflict with the U.S. and its allies, the tactical value
of the Spratlys would rapidly diminish,” he stated.
China‘s
moves could spark a reaction not just from the U.S., but also from other
countries in East Asia worried about its expansionist drive.
“If China‘s ‘salami-slicing’ campaign pushes
the Philippines, in particular, to throw in fully with the U.S., China‘s
biggest strategic challenge — the threat of a U.S.-led blockade — will become
an order of magnitude more difficult to solve.”
Earlier
this year, China massed several hundred vessels from the maritime militia — a
lightly armed fishing fleet that supports the Chinese navy — around reefs in
the Spratlys near the Philippines.
Chinese
coast guard ships have been harassing Philippine patrol boats near Scarborough
Shoal farther north.
“The
show of force illustrates how the seven artificial island bases that China has
built in the Spratlys since 2013 can be put to good use in scenarios short of
war,” Mr. Orchard said.
Beijing
believes its control of the disputed islands will be important in any regional
conflict.
“More
important is the role they could play in cementing Chinese dominance of the
Western Pacific without fighting at all,” Mr. Orchard said.
But the
purely military value of the island bases is questionable, Mr. Orchard said,
because they are not close to key chokepoints that could be used by the Navy
and regional allies to close off vital sea lanes used by China.
The
bases also could be easy targets for current and future medium- and long-range
strike missiles in the U.S. arsenal, he said.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2021/jul/13/china-begins-military-flights-disputed-south-china/