The United States lives in a fundamentally unique geopolitical reality. It’s the only major power that doesn’t face the risk of a land war, so it doesn’t need a massive force to defend the homeland. Instead, it can concentrate on maintaining control of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. If it retains control of the seas, the only threat to the United States would be air and missile attacks.
These
are not trivial threats, but they are far more manageable without having to
worry about an invasion by land or sea. The United States itself has offensive
options it can indulge in – even if it doesn’t always use them prudently, and
even if it leads to defeat elsewhere. The U.S. has not faced a foreign presence
on its soil since the 19th century. Even nuclear weapons are countered by
mutual assured destruction, which has protected the U.S. homeland for over half
a century.
This
happy condition is the foundation of American power. During the harshest of
wars, World War II, where much of Europe and Asia was torn asunder, the
American homeland remained untouched. This is such an obvious fact that it
tends to be neglected.
So too
are the geopolitical reasons behind American security. Any attack on the United
States must either be an amphibious assault from across the sea or a land
assault from either Canada or Mexico. The U.S. fought numerous times with
Mexico in the 19th and very early 20th centuries, and in the 1960s, the Quebec
independence movement prompted fears in the U.S. that an independent Quebec
might align with the Soviet Union. But today, neither country can attack the
U.S. itself, hence the first layer of American security. The second layer is
that neither country wants to align with powers hostile to the United States.
Had Germany secured their allegiance in World War II, or had the Soviet Union
in the Cold War, or had China in the past few decades, the risks to American
security would have soared, and the U.S. invulnerability to war on the homeland
would have evaporated. American history would have been very different, along
with the history of humanity.
Therefore,
in any discussion of American strategy and of its strategic priorities, the
most important issue is not the South China Sea or NATO but the maintenance of
relations with Canada and Mexico. It’s true that at the moment each country has
an overriding interest in maintaining their relationship, for reasons ranging
from trade to social links. It’s also true that the United States could impose
its will militarily on either country. However, waging war on neighbors is
dangerous and exhausting. America is a global power pursuing global interests,
and its domestic stability would be the first casualty of a land assault
against Canada or Mexico.
On the
surface, this whole line of reasoning sounds preposterous. But the fact that it
seems so arises from the misconception among Americans that the current
relationship with Canada and Mexico is unchangeable, and thus requires no care.
But one of the most obvious observations of history is the speed at which the
apparently obvious dissolves and a new normal takes its place. Given the
overwhelming importance to the U.S. that neither neighbor shift its national
strategy, the comfortable assumption of continuity is perhaps the most reckless
element of U.S. policy. Certainly, there is no current danger of a shift, nor
any danger on the horizon. But this is precisely the time when a prudent power
devotes significant attention to an issue. Reversing a shift in policy is far
more difficult than preventing one.
There
are forces driving the U.S. apart from these two countries, countries that are
not in a position to cause a break, but which in the future, when other issues
are added to them and enticing new relationships show themselves, might change
the equation. In the case of Canada, the manner in which the United States
canceled the Keystone XL pipeline, a project that was important to Canada,
signaled a profound indifference to Canada’s interests. There was little
consultation, no offer of compensation, nor any attempt to create an
alternative project. By itself, this is not enough to cause a break with the
United States, but it certainly reminds Canada that Washington sees it as
subordinate to its interests rather than as the object of its interests.
In the
case of Mexico, the U.S. obsesses over immigration, an issue that is
nonessential to Mexican interests. There has been a surge of migrants at that
border, most on their way to the United States, but all creating significant
problems on their way north. The United States views Mexico as a source of
illegal immigration. Mexico sees the problem of immigration as having its
origin at Mexico’s southern border with Guatemala. Mexico has therefore
requested American help in closing its southern border, which has been refused.
Instead, Mexico is demonized for the immigration the U.S. will not help stop.
(I have no interest in the question of which country is right. All such matters
are complex, and every nation is certain that another nation is at fault.)
For the
United States, obsessing without alienating either Canada or Mexico is
essential to its national interest, if not its national policy. The physical
security of the United States and its trade system depends on these two
countries. A rational policy of extreme awareness of their internal processes
and a willingness to indulge their needs even to the disadvantage of the United
States is a low-cost, high-return policy. When someone takes a client to lunch,
he picks up the tab, even if the client has ordered the most expensive items on
the menu. The cost of lunch is vastly less than the business you will get.
The most
interesting part of geopolitics is that a current state of affairs feels
eternal. Nothing in geopolitics’ past should give anyone that confidence.
Maintaining a beneficial status quo requires effort, painful until the
alternative is considered. But since the belief is that nothing will change,
then no effort is needed. The U.S. is a dominant global power because its
homeland is secure from attack. Its homeland is secure because Canada and
Mexico secure it. The failure to understand that they have options – and are
far from exercising them – means their treatment is determined by America’s
passing interests. From a geopolitical point of view, this is understandable:
Power blots out vulnerability. From a policy standpoint, it ignores
reality.
***George
Friedman is an internationally recognized geopolitical forecaster and
strategist on international affairs and the founder and chairman of
Geopolitical Futures.
Dr.
Friedman is also a New York Times bestselling author. His most recent book, THE
STORM BEFORE THE CALM: America’s Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and
the Triumph Beyond, published February 25, 2020 describes how “the United
States periodically reaches a point of crisis in which it appears to be at war
with itself, yet after an extended period it reinvents itself, in a form both
faithful to its founding and radically different from what it had been.” The
decade 2020-2030 is such a period which will bring dramatic upheaval and
reshaping of American government, foreign policy, economics, and culture.


His most
popular book, The Next 100 Years, is kept alive by the prescience of its
predictions. Other best-selling books include Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis
in Europe, The Next Decade, America’s Secret War, The Future of War and The
Intelligence Edge. His books have been translated into more than 20 languages.
Dr.
Friedman has briefed numerous military and government organizations in the
United States and overseas and appears regularly as an expert on international
affairs, foreign policy and intelligence in major media. For almost 20 years
before resigning in May 2015, Dr. Friedman was CEO and then chairman of
Stratfor, a company he founded in 1996. Friedman received his bachelor’s degree
from the City College of the City University of New York and holds a doctorate
in government from Cornell University.
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/canada-mexico-and-americas-reality/?utm_source=GPF+Free+Newsletter&utm_campaign=6a02a4685a-20211109_FL_Weekly&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f716b3bf65-6a02a4685a-265186302&mc_cid=6a02a4685a&mc_eid=adbdd0a67c
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