It is not only the human toll of Russia’s war on Ukraine that grows daily. The economic fallout is already rippling through the global economy, contributing to higher inflation, energy prices and food costs.

Russia and Ukraine are major agricultural producers, together producing 12 percent of the world’s calories. Combined, Russia and Ukraine account for 14 percent of the world’s wheat production and 28 percent of all traded wheat. Ukraine is also a top 10 producer of sunflowers, barley and corn, while Russia and its ally, Belarus, supply a lot of fertilizers to the world.

The war is putting all this at risk. The fighting (and Western sanctions) are damaging Russia’s economy, which may shrink by 10 percent in 2022. Still, Moscow is getting off lightly compared to Kyiv. Ukraine’s loss is simply devastating – a 45 percent drop in gross domestic product is expected this year alone. Ukraine’s famously fertile black-earth soil has made it a breadbasket of the world – and a target for invaders.

Today, Russia stands accused not only of war crimes, which it denies, but of blockading the Black Sea so that Ukraine cannot export its grain to the world. Accusations of outright theft of stored grain and farm equipment have been made, reviving horrible memories of the Holodomor, during which Soviet leader Joseph Stalin starved to death an estimated 4 million Ukrainians in 1932-1933.

Spring is the time for renewing life – and for farmers to be in the fields. The longer that this war goes on, the likelier it becomes that some of the world’s neediest will be hungrier while the more fortunate among us will be paying a “war premium” on the purchase of our next loaf of bread or sirloin steak.

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