The West approached Victory Day, the 77th anniversary of the Allies’ defeat of Nazi Germany, with trepidation. Many Ukrainians remained outside of their country, fearing a nuclear Armageddon on May 9 or at least intensified attacks from Russia. And while the frequency of air raid sirens has increased throughout Ukraine in recent days, the carnage has remained largely contained to the contested eastern areas near Russia’s border.
Vladimir
Putin’s words were closely watched during the traditional Red Square parade for
clues about where the war was heading. What the world heard was ambiguity in a
brief address from Russia’s president, who cut a solitary figure on the stage
as other world leaders boycotted the Moscow event.
He did
not declare victory. He did not officially declare war, so what remains is a
“special military operation” launched on February 24. He did not announce a
full-scale mobilization. He did not talk about taking over the whole of
Ukraine. He did not state specific aims.
Rather,
Mr. Putin continued to play the victim, insisting Russia was engaged in a
defensive operation to thwart a NATO-backed plot to invade the Russian
homeland, including the eastern Donbas and on the Crimean Peninsula. (The
international community regards these territories, of course, as part of
Ukraine.)
Where
does this leave us, besides guessing? The Russian president – in line with
centuries of Russian political tradition – is a master at presenting enigmas.
It is unlikely, however, that he will silently give up.
It was
somewhat naive to believe that the May 9 celebration would prompt President
Putin to disclose plans or start specific actions.
Unfortunately,
we cannot see a light at the end of the tunnel.
