Kyiv astutely communicates to its population, the West and the enemy to achieve its critical war objectives. In a nutshell: The leader of Ukraine has proven a very effective communicator. Kyiv’s well-honed strategic messaging has multiple targets. Among the key goals is weakening President Putin’s hold on power.
The
results of the armed clashes in southeastern Ukraine will ultimately decide the
Russian-Ukrainian war’s outcome, perhaps as early as this year. The battlefield
will determine the final shape of political agreements, either ending the war
or suspending its armed dimension for some indefinite period. The winter,
usually harsh in eastern parts of Europe, naturally reduces the scale and pace
of combat operations. It ushers a period for intensifying various types of
nonmilitary warfare, including in international strategic communications.
That is,
in essence, a battle for the “hearts and minds” of the international community
and the two warring nations – the Ukrainians and the Russians.
A case
study
An
example of such an operation was Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s
first wartime foreign visit to the United States in December 2022. A closer
look at that event reveals its significance and possible impact on the war’s
course.
Notably,
President Zelenskiy’s meetings with U.S. President Joe Biden and his address to
the U.S. Congress were not about securing more U.S. war materiel and more
humanitarian, economic and financial aid from Ukraine’s strongest ally. In this
regard, all arrangements had already been made before the visit – including,
for example, the pivotal decision to provide Ukraine with air defense Patriot
missile batteries.
Nor has
the visit produced diplomatic-political breakthroughs. In this area, it
confirmed the status quo and has not altered the arc of U.S.-Ukraine relations.
However, the visit carried great importance in international strategic
communication. In the coming months, its effects can be expected to bear on all
critical strategic actors involved: the societies of the U.S. and, more
broadly, the West as a whole and of Ukraine and Russia.
Staving
off fatigue
Alarms
about the growing “fatigue” in European societies becoming tired of dealing
with the war’s fallout, including the economic burden and grave security
concerns, have been heard for some time. Concerned Westerners may think: “It is
not our war,” or “It is costing us too much.” And many may wonder whether it
would not be better to sacrifice Ukraine (or at least part of its territory)
for the sake of peace.
These
are not only hypothetical worries of analysts, scientists, military planners
and politicians. The attitude of Western citizens longing for the comforts of
everyday peaceful life matters in the large scheme of things.
What
caused the war, who is the aggressor and who is the victim, or what the
strategic consequences of the conflict may be, are not so important. Most
people do not think in such terms; what matters is their here and now. And now,
it is colder at home. Life is becoming alarmingly expensive and more
complicated than it was yesterday. Such fatigue with the war and abstraction
from the strategic perspective favors the aggressor, Russia, and works against
the victim, Ukraine. It discourages support for the victim because it prolongs
its resistance to the aggression and thus prolongs the war.
Targeted
communication
Hence
the challenge and task for strategic communication: how to alleviate the war
fatigue and keep Westerners in Ukraine’s corner? President Zelenskiy and his
team are acutely mindful of this aspect of the battle. The president’s daily
news releases are carefully designed for the Ukrainians’ consumption but also
to motivate foreign allies and break the aggressor’s spirit. Mr. Zelenskiy
proves a very effective operator in strategic communications – international
and domestic.
From
this vantage point, the president’s December 21, 2022, Washington visit,
carried out jointly by Ukraine and the U.S., deserves particular attention. It
reminded the policymakers and, perhaps most importantly, the American and
broadly Western public, of the rationale for backing Ukraine in its struggle
with Russia. It aimed to reinvigorate admiration for the Ukrainian army’s
effectiveness and the civilian society’s sacrifices in defense of the homeland.
It was also intended to make Westerners realize that supporting Ukraine is not
some charity, because it directly serves the security interests of the Western
world: Europe and the U.S. and NATO – especially the European alliance members
of its so-called eastern flank.
It is
apparent that, for a while, this Ukrainian-U.S. communication operation will
help ease Western societies’ fatigue and make enduring economic hardship in the
name of repelling Russian aggression politically easier. And since continued
Western support of Ukraine is, in fact, the necessary condition for stopping
Russian aggression in Europe, this aspect of the visit is of great practical
and strategic importance.
The
domestic impact
The
Ukrainian nation is entering perhaps its most testing period since the
beginning of the invasion. Russia, unable to defeat the Ukrainian army on the
ground, has waged a total war directly against the entire society, attacking
cities, population centers and civilian infrastructure with massive missile and
drone strikes. This Russian strategy brings the conduct of the war directly
into criminal territory. One can only hope that war criminals will be brought
to justice and punished by international tribunals once the war is over.
The
harsh effects of such a war are further compounded by the winter now underway.
The media, traditional and social, provide countless images of the war drama.
The defensive will of the Ukrainian people is being put to another grave test.
Which raises the second major challenge facing wartime strategic
communications: how to sustain the nation’s spirit in such a drastic situation?
President
Zelenskiy’s visit to the U.S. may also prove helpful in this respect. The
visit’s public resonance has given additional hope to the Ukrainians: they saw
they were not left alone, that the biggest power of the Western world stood
resolutely in their support and that there were chances to survive this dark
period to win in the future. Anything that sustains the defensive determination
of the Ukrainian people helps.
Within
this framework, President Zelenskiy’s address to the U.S. Congress, delivered
in person and in English, particularly stood out, for despite the horrors of
the war, he eloquently showed his vision of a victorious and developing
Ukraine.
Undermining
Russia’s leader
The
Russian public continues to support President Vladimir Putin and the war.
However, doubts have already started surfacing. It is becoming increasingly
difficult for Kremlin propaganda to spin its “special military operation” as a
success – especially about how it has been conducted from the beginning. But
the Kremlin’s particular problem is explaining the war’s rationale: why it had
to invade its neighbor in February 2022.
This
issue is made more acute by the palpable burden of the war’s consequences,
including international economic sanctions, personnel losses at the front and
the impacts of wartime mobilization at home. With no credible prospect of a
quick end to these troubles, anti-war emotions are growing with each day of the
war and may eventually reach a breaking point.
Fissures
on the facade
Internal
factional struggles have already emerged within the Russian power elite. One
example is Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Russian oligarch and head of the so-called
Wagner Group of mercenaries, a supposedly nongovernmental entity linked to the
Russian special services. The Russian president’s confidant, Mr. Prigozhin is
condescendingly called “Putin’s chef” for the catering services he arranged for
the head of state. He is now in open conflict with Defense Minister Sergei
Shoigu, Chief of General Staff General Valery Gerasimov and former President
Dmitry Medvedev. Also, he has initiated a campaign along the lines of the
communist-era populist prosecution of “bourgeois and kulaks,” which favors
nationalizing the assets of some fellow oligarchs.
President
Putin may have the situation under control for the time being, but information
about his health troubles is regularly leaked – hardly by coincidence. The traditionally
pro-Kremlin Russian public, susceptible to centralized propaganda, can easily
change its sympathies and support for another, more robust “tsar.” President
Putin’s regime is not as internally solid and stable as most Western experts
and the public tend to see it from the outside.
In these
circumstances, strategic communications with information that implicitly or
explicitly weakens faith in the sense of the war and the omnipotence of the
commander-in-chief, carry critical weight. Such is the news on President
Zelenskiy’s latest U.S. visit, especially the elements showing the sustained
support of Ukraine by Washington, followed by other Western capitals. That
broadens doubts and may undermine the hope for a quick victory among the
Russians. Such events also weaken confidence in the effectiveness of Mr.
Putin’s personalized rule over Russia.
Scenarios
President
Zelenskiy’s visit to Washington was important primarily as a message aimed at
weakening the political-strategic position of Russia and increasing the chances
of defeating the aggressor in the war.
Angry
reaction
The
outcome of this spectacular Ukrainian-American operation of strategic
communication and how it may translate into possible war scenarios will depend
– as with everything in war – on the actions of the two sides. The Russian
response in the information sphere has been angry, albeit inconsistent. The
thick threads with which it has been sewn together are probably visible to
everyone, even in Russia. President Putin became hyperactive, giving several
interviews to the media, and unleashed his two top war propaganda hounds in the
form of Dmitry Medvedev and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
But the
practical informational impact of Russia’s strategic communication moves is
already low, and it probably only has the value of an echo returning to its
senders. That is determined by the nearly global credibility collapse not only
of the Russian propaganda machine itself but of the Russian state and,
particularly, Mr. Putin’s political leadership.
Few in
the world take what Mr. Putin says seriously now. Russia is weaker than Ukraine
in the information ring, and Mr. Putin himself is dramatically losing the
presidential communication battle for the hearts and minds of the world.
President Zelenskiy is credible and
open. President Putin seems unreliable, boring and secretive. President
Zelenskiy attracts, Mr. Putin repels.
Win-win
for Kyiv
Based on
all this, we can envision two scenarios for Ukraine. One is radically
favorable, and the other is moderately optimistic.
The
former will occur if all three levels of Kyiv’s strategic communication targets
– the Western international community, Ukrainians and Russians – prove
simultaneously effective. A renewal of the West’s readiness to support Ukraine
without previous self-restraint and enhancement of Ukrainians’ defensive
resolve could lead to more battlefield victories and trigger a political change
in Russia.
However,
a moderate scenario still seems more likely. The West’s will to support Ukraine
will not wane, and aid will be consistently sustained; in Russia, a political
breakthrough has yet to take place, but the conditions for it will become increasingly
apparent.
https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/ukraine-strategic-communication/
***Professor
Stanislaw Koziej is a retired general, and is an analyst and lecturer in
international affairs, national security and defense. Gen. Koziej has also
served as head of the National Security Bureau and secretary of the National
Security Council for the President of the Republic of Poland, as well as deputy
minister of national defense. In the 1990s, he organized and coordinated
Poland’s national strategic defense planning. He has authored more than 1,000
publications on security and defense issues.