Saudi Arabia hosted the grand China-Arab summit in December last year and leaders of the two nations deliberated on future trade ties and regional security. The summit happened at a time when USA and Saudi ties are at an all time low. There lies massive uncertainty on global energy markets after the West forced a price cap on Russian oil and Washington is looking guardedly at China’s rising influence in the Middle East.
In Oil
trade, China is Saudi Arabia’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade
more than $87 billion in 2021. Saudi Arabia is China’s top oil supplier, making
up 18% of China’s total crude oil purchases. The two countries have deals in
refineries, power and military & security.
Africa’s natural resources have long been a
Chinese favourite. Every year, China doles out billions in grants and loans to
African governments as an inducement to secure raw material deals or to finance
the infrastructure projects which are ultimately going to benefit its own
companies.
What is
India’s position on the China- Arab summit that intends to boost development
and cooperation among the two? India would be in a bit of a quandary one may
assume as Arabs are their good friends, as they claim; while the Chinese are
not. The trio of the China, Arabs and Pakistan (being used as a mere proxy),
uniting is bound to be a slight source of worry for India. What is India’s take
on this friendship?
From a diplomatic
perspective, if their friendship and goodwill is promoted, it’s a good thing
but one hopes that this does not undermine Indian interest, as any bilateral
relation must not destabilize a third
relation. In general when one talks of the Arab world, one thinks of its
gargantuan energy power and energy crisis and its management is a global issue
right now. With the Ukraine Russia war hanging around the energy crisis, it
could be an ‘Energy Security’ thing they are trying to do bilaterally. If a big
country like China enters the domain of energy, food etc it could turn out into
a fairly big movement in the markets, in terms of prices and availability.
India has to reckon by the fact that China is large and when you take out a
large chunk of something that is available, that can create a pressure
situation for others.
Also the
union of China, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan may have certain repercussions on
India, as China and India already have problems and those are huge problems,
there’s no denying that. Sachin Sawant, Senior leader of the Indian National
Congress leader, the country’s main opposition party states that they are
already over-exerting their power on India. The Chinese are going on building
roads, tunnels and bridges nonstop along the border. India needs to develop
stronger guiding principles, when dealing with China and its global intentions
are concerned. It is a huge point of worry for India.
India
definitely cannot do or say much if two good friends decide to meet, but it
does have its set of concerns. If China
forges more business alliances with the Arabs in the energy and other sectors,
India foresees instability in the markets which may be against its economic
interest. It also is wary of the Chinese and Arabs getting together as this is
a powerful alliance and its outcome may have a negative impact on Indian
interest.
What
could be the intentions of China to promote this friendship further and
strengthen their relations with the Arabs. How does India look at this union of
two economic superpowers? Every country wants to have good friends. They both
have global ambitions and one goes about a decade back or lesser, they had
invested heavily in Africa. They went there and tried to get hold of all the
mines that were of strategic importance to them. They need nickel, gallium etc
which are crucial for smart phone manufacturing. So, yes! They would be eyeing
many such opportunities in their bilateral ventures.
China is
known for its expansionism and they use their financial strength to arm-twist
many countries, especially the economically weaker ones. “They are the Shylock
kind of money lenders; they keep on lending money at exorbitant rates and then
the poorer countries like Pakistan get into that vicious cycle where China
takes hold of all their resources at very cheap rates. India is not at all
bothered about their befriending the Arabs, because Chinese intentions are well
known to the world,” says a concerned Sawant.
India
says it is well aware that the Chinese mean business when they talk of
befriending the Arabs. Together the two may explore many more avenues of
business which strengthen their respective economies. Would their friendship
affect India’s foreign policy in anyway? How affected or concerned is the
Indian Government with this strategic partnership of China and the Arab
nations?
Both
Saudi Arabia and China are also part of G-20, and they must work in some areas
of convergence that emerge from this global exercise. India closely follows
whatever they are doing in terms of multilateral regional matters which impact
the well being of all people, and also other matters that are taken up in G20,
like climate change, green development and digital economy. India has
sufficiently strong relations with the Arabs and its foreign policy will only
be affected if China does something that is out of line of its interest.
Sawant
reiterates that it is a matter of concern for India. The leader says that the
alliance of China with the Arabs is definitely rooted in more trade and greater
geo-political ambition. It can harm India. He says that China has this habit of
deliberately targeting India’s neighbours, antagonizing them like it has been
doing with Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, all in a bid to weaken India. It
has been their strategy and India should be worried about that. “India needs to
revamp its foreign policy in dealing with China. On one hand we ban their apps
but then our imports from them are also growing multi-fold, this has to stop.
Even on the Bhutan front India needs to be more proactive in protecting the
interests of people in that region,” argues Sawant.
If India
looks at the China-Arab partnership through the prism of G20 then, it will
jointly work on pressing global issues and is confident of a positive outcome.
However, it would expect China to
cooperate with it in its G20 endeavours. Does the Indian Government have any
certain policy to enhance cooperation and influence in the Mid East Region?
Yes, the Middle East is India’s immediate neighbourhood. India has an authentic
historical and cultural relationship with them which is now nicely developing
into a stronger and closer economic partnership. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
is India’s major economic partner; most of its energy comes from there. Also,
it has huge Diasporas in the Arab countries who are emerging as investors in
India’s growth and infrastructural development.
“Any
foreign policy is good until is serves the interest of the country. Just on the
basis of how you are welcomed by foreign countries and how we welcome them
cannot help determine foreign policy; this is a holistic issue. The Chinese
President comes here and enjoys a resplendent welcome but that doesn’t stop
their army from attacking us. What exactly we do in the interest of the country
will help shape up strong foreign policy with any country. The Arabs, though
our good friends will obviously be happy with the trade agreements with China,
but we must be wary that it does not harm us or our economy inadvertently,”
says Sawant.
In the
end, India must be confident of its faith and friendship with the Middle East.
Being a long time economic partner of theirs, they also benefit from the fact
that Indians living in the Arab nations are a huge plus point for them. While
there seems to be a bit of skepticism about the China- Arab ties, India should
be confident that this will not come in the way of their strong relations with
the other 7 GCC countries.
***Shaumik
Ghosh: Author of “A Reverie in Death”, “Bit More than Enough” and “Those Same
Demon Eyes.” Columnist and Journalist currently based in India. Have lived and
worked in UK, Scotland and India. Follow me on Twitter: @shaumikghosh
https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/01/27/saudi-chinese-friendship-should-india-be-concerned/