Western leaders debated for months before deciding to send modern battle tanks to Kyiv. Now it turns out that it may take even more months before many tanks will arrive. Moreover, the commitments may yield enough for only three or so new 31-unit battalions. Ukraine has other needs as well that are not being met, like a comprehensive air defense to ward off Moscow’s missile and drone strikes targeting infrastructure and civilians.

The discussions at the recent 60th annual Munich Security Conference offer hope but no certainty that Europe may finally be getting the point. The post-Cold War peace dividend was spent a long time ago. Europe today is unprepared to deter invasions such as the one Russia launched against Ukraine. The collective West had to admit that it cannot even produce enough ammunition and artillery to meet Ukraine’s battlefield needs.

Politicians such as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz are now talking the right game. Mr. Scholz pledged to boost defense spending and arms production permanently. There are even suggestions that the multiplying global military threats may require spending 3 percent of gross domestic product on defense – up from the current NATO standard of 2 percent, which many in the 30-nation alliance are not even meeting today.

A large contingent of U.S. members of Congress of both parties made the trip to Munich to show solidarity and bolster European nerves. While the U.S. has committed $113 billion to support Ukraine in the past year, U.S. Republican Senator Mitch McConnell noted that it amounts to only 0.02 percent of the nation’s annual gross domestic product. The message to the lighter-spending Europeans seemed to be: You can afford to do better. Both Senator McConnell and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat, said they favored sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, suggesting it will happen.

This year’s Munich Security Conference had no Russian contingent, making it more of a gathering of allies, but not completely. China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, gave a speech in Munich announcing that Beijing will come up with its own peace proposal soon based on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of nations, presumably Ukraine’s included.

After standing mostly on the sidelines in the last year, China’s active involvement in the peace process may be a positive development – if its solution respects Ukraine’s interests. Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin going all-in and pledging a fight to the finish, it is hard to see how Russia can keep prosecuting its war against the wishes of China, its top ally and trade partner. The devil will be in the details.

In the meantime, a year on the battlefield has shown that if Russia had the ability to destroy Ukraine, it would have done so by now. So, NATO has little to fear, especially since global leaders have made it clear that the Russian leader will regret any decision to use nuclear weapons. In conventional forces, Mr. Putin has committed almost his entire army to the fight in Ukraine, leaving him little capacity for additional military adventures.

This leaves the West with time to get its act together, as many gatherings of leaders, most recently in Warsaw on February 21, pledged to do.

Russia needs to be defeated but not “crushed,” as French President Emmanuel Macron said. When Russia recognizes that it will not win, as exiled Russian opposition leader Garry Kasparov put it in Munich, only then will the Kremlin start to abandon its imperial dreams and begin to change.

Ukraine has not liberated its territory yet. Europe’s defenses need strengthening.

To achieve these twin goals, the West needs to do more and start by dropping its own self-imposed red lines in supplying Ukraine. As Mr. Scholz said in Munich, arming Ukraine will hasten the war’s end, not prolong it.

Europe must also speed up and spend more to create a credible deterrent for the continent against any threats that emerge from any direction.

https://www.gisreportsonline.com/d/ukraine-in-focus/