China is so far winning the global scramble for metals needed in the green transition.
Few
consumers are likely to be familiar with the uses of gallium or germanium. But
the chemicals — which are used in solar panels, as well as optical fibres —
have acquired newfound fame this month after China announced it would be
restricting their export from August 1. The curbs, which seek to preserve
Beijing’s “national security and interests”, are a reminder that the west needs
to bolster its efforts in the global scramble to secure metals and minerals
that are critical for the green transition and new technologies.
Demand
for vital resources such as lithium, copper, cobalt and nickel is expected to
more than double by 2030, as the world rushes to build electric vehicles, wind
turbines and solar panels in mushrooming quantities.
Investment
in developing these raw materials rose by 30 per cent last year to more than
$40bn, according to a report this week from the International Energy Agency.
Since
mining projects take anywhere from seven to 20 years to realise, accelerating
extraction is crucial. If all announced projects are delivered on time, the IEA
forecasts supply to be sufficient to keep national climate pledges on track by
2030. That may be somewhat comforting — even if it means the world will still
be behind on restricting warming to within 1.5C of pre-industrial levels. But
it belies three inconvenient truths that the west needs to grapple with
quickly.
First,
China dominates critical mineral extraction and refining to an astonishing
degree. Last year, its companies doubled their investment spending, compared
with a 25 per cent increase on average for western mining groups such as BHP,
Anglo American and Glencore. China also accounts for about 60 per cent of the
world’s lithium processing; Elon Musk, chief executive of Tesla, has dubbed lithium-based
EV batteries “the new oil”.
Beijing
has snapped up deals, too, with nations across Africa and Latin America that
are rich in critical mineral deposits. As geopolitical tensions mount, China’s
potential to weaponise its control of resources, as Russia has done, puts
western economies on edge. Second, the west’s mining sector cannot solve
critical mineral shortages on its own.
Price
volatility makes extraction risky; some rare raw materials also suffer from
poor price transparency given limited public trading. China’s first-mover
advantage in some countries as well as state support means it is competitive
even when prices slump. High interest rates do not help either.
A push
from governments in areas such as price insurance and public-private
partnerships, such as France’s recently announced €2bn investment fund, can
help to de-risk projects. Diplomatic outreach is just as important. The west
will struggle to build ties with extracting nations in the developing world
solely with promises to mine in a more environmental and socially responsible
way.
Sweeteners
such as trade deals and support for infrastructure projects also matter.
Mineral deposits at home warrant further exploitation. Canada and Australia
have an abundance of minerals; even Britain’s unassuming Cornish region has
significant amounts of lithium that it is now starting to develop. Yet
permitting processes are slow and overcoming so-called “Nimbys” is not easy.
Finally,
while national initiatives are emerging, co-ordination between western partners
is key. Joint financing efforts could help bring scale to projects. Exploration
of the seabed, which is largely untapped, also offers huge scope for new rare
metal deposits but environmental standards are not yet agreed. Research
partnerships are promising, too.
For
example, sodium — which is more abundant than lithium — was recently found to
be effective in energy storage batteries. Over the past decade, the west has
woken up to the threat of climate change. Now it needs to wake up to the
necessity of securing the materials that power the green transition.