Even with generous green subsidies, offshore wind projects are being called off as developers struggle to make a profit.Offshore wind farms should be one of the best solutions to the climate crisis but are turning out to be a lousy business. Getting the struggling industry back on its feet will require a new approach from companies and politicians alike.
The
public face of the crisis is Ørsted, a former oil and gas producer that became
the world’s largest offshore wind-farm developer. The Danish company’s stock
has lost more than $10 billion, or a third of its market value, since warning
last week that it may take impairments of up to $2.3 billion on its U.S.
projects. On Tuesday, ratings provider Moody’s downgraded the stock, a further
challenge for a company that, like a property developer, needs debt to fund its
plans.
Ørsted
won contracts to develop wind farms off the coasts of Connecticut, New York and
New Jersey in late 2018 and 2019. Since committing to sell the power from these
projects at a fixed price, permitting delays, rising costs and higher interest
rates have torched the returns it expected to make.
The
Biden administration wants to have 30 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity by
2030, from less than 50 megawatts today. Generous subsidies in the Inflation
Reduction Act are meant to turbocharge investment. Ørsted hoped bonus tax
credits in the climate bill for using locally produced components would paper
over financial cracks, but now says its wind farms may not qualify.
The
company says it will abandon projects if it doesn’t get more government
support, and rivals are also rethinking their U.S. plans.
Shell and
Avangrid face multimillion-dollar fines
for calling it quits on offshore wind-farm developments in Massachusetts that
they can no longer justify. There is trouble further up the supply chain, too.
Siemens Gamesa and Vestas, which together make roughly 80% of all turbine
blades and nacelles for projects outside China, are losing money.
Of all
renewable energy projects, offshore wind farms may be the most vulnerable to
rising interest rates as they take longer to build and have higher upfront
costs. According to George Bilicic, global head of power, energy and
infrastructure at Lazard , building a
U.S. offshore wind farm can cost $4,000 per kilowatt at the midpoint of
estimates, compared with $1,360 for onshore farms and $1,050 for solar
facilities. Average costs to build an offshore wind farm have shot up 36% since
2019, compared with 5% for land-based ones, in part because of pricier debt.
Offshore
wind is a promising clean-power technology because it should be highly
productive once the capital is invested. As the ocean is windy, the capacity
factor of offshore farms—a measure of how efficiently they generate
electricity—is higher than both onshore wind farms and solar power. Installing
wind turbines out at sea is also less controversial than on land, so the
politics should be easier, in theory.
In
reality, the industry is hamstrung by politics at all levels. Transmission
bottlenecks to get power from offshore wind farms to land are now a major
obstacle to delivering projects on time. Governments that dole out green
subsidies with one hand set unfavorable terms for seabed auctions with the
other.
There
are also self-inflicted problems. Turbine manufacturers raced to make bigger
and bigger models, driving down costs and making offshore wind nominally
competitive with fossil fuels in many regions. But the rapid churn also made
important parts of the supply chain obsolete: Older-installation vessels can’t
handle the new, supersize turbine blades and towers.
While
the industry needs to get better at understanding the hidden costs of
innovation, governments will have to pay more if they want offshore wind power
to help reduce carbon emissions. “Policymakers got used to 20 years of
continuously falling prices for renewables. All of a sudden, that has reversed
and they have been slow to react,” says Chris Seiple, vice chairman of Wood
Mackenzie’s power and renewables group.
Contracts
should be linked to inflation. Right now, developers take on huge risks when
they win a bid: Their future revenue is locked in but they are exposed to
rising input costs throughout the years it takes to get a wind farm up and
running. If governments have to shoulder these costs, they might overhaul
permitting processes that are causing delays.
Even in
Europe, where the offshore wind industry is more mature, the rollout has slowed
to a crawl. In 2022, the European Union installed 2.5 gigawatts of new offshore
capacity, less than the 3 gigawatts it managed back in 2015.
Offshore
wind power is becoming a prime casualty of the shift in financial markets away
from the old world of smooth supply chains, low inflation and free money. The
industry and its political backers need to work together to find a model better
suited to stormier times.
***Carol
Ryan at carol.ryan@wsj.com