But, really, the U.S.’s southern neighbor has held the title for all of 2023. Here at MarketWatch, we like simpler calculations. Drawing on a quarterly series measuring trade on a balance-of-payments basis, Mexico took the lead in the third quarter of 2022.

The two series are not wildly different from one another. The data Bloomberg uses are more timely, based on documents collected by U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

The balance-of-payments data, meanwhile, are adjusted to be consistent with gross-domestic-product calculations, and the data are produced quarterly as opposed to monthly. A few differences: BOP data count as imports the purchases of goods abroad by the U.S. military or the fuel purchases made in foreign ports by U.S. air and ocean carriers; there are a few subtractions, as well.

The narrative is basically the same whichever report is used. The U.S.-China trade relationship is deteriorating, and Mexico has been a beneficiary as companies look to countries with friendlier governments.

There’s a financial element to this narrative, too. One of the hottest currency pairs this year has been the Mexican peso vs. the Japanese yen MXNJPY, -1.11%, which has surged 28% this year. The dollar, meanwhile, has climbed 5% vs. the offshore Chinese yuan USDCNH, 0.06%.

***Steven Goldstein is based in London and responsible for MarketWatch's coverage of financial markets in Europe, with a particular focus on global macro and commodities. Previously, he was Washington bureau chief, directing MarketWatch's economic, political and regulatory coverage. Follow Steve on Twitter: @MKTWgoldstein.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mexico-has-either-just-overtaken-china-as-leading-exporter-to-u-s-or-its-had-title-all-year-d6daa983