The elections in Pakistan set for February 8, given the country’s strategic geopolitical location and role in regional dynamics, undoubtedly presents regional implications stemming from potential domestic instabilities. These implications can manifest in several key areas, including security, economic partnerships, and diplomatic relations within the South Asian region and beyond. Pakistan’s strategic position in South Asia, its role in regional security dynamics, particularly in relation to India, Afghanistan, and China, and its influence in Muslim-majority countries make its political stability and policy orientations crucial to regional and global affairs.
Pakistan
general elections are under significant scrutiny due to the extensive influence
of the military on the country’s politics. Historically, the military has
played a kingmaker role in Pakistan’s elections, shaping the political
landscape to its advantage. This year, the situation appears no different, with
concerns about the fairness of the electoral process being raised by various
stakeholders. This includes interference with cyber security and use of the
internet. Suspicious timing of the internet outage, aligning with a planned
online event by a political party, has led to speculation about deliberate
restraints for political reasons. This suspicion is not unfounded, as similar
disruptions occurred on December 17 and January 7, creating a pattern that
raises questions about the motivations behind the internet blackouts.
Former
Prime Minister Imran Khan, a popular figure among the masses, finds himself out
of the race due to legal challenges and a conviction on corruption charges,
which many of his supporters claim are politically motivated. Khan was
sentenced three times recently: 10 years for leaking classified documents,
accusations of selling and keeping state gifts, and seven years for breaking
marriage law. His party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), also sees many of its
candidates banned from politics, further complicating the election landscape.
Nawaz
Sharif, a three-time former prime minister who has returned from exile, is seen
as a frontrunner. His reconciliation with the military and charges of
corruption have painted a complex picture of his candidacy. Bilawal Bhutto
Zardari, representing the centre-left Pakistan People’s Party, is another major
contender, bringing with him a legacy of political leadership from his family.
The
military’s behind-the-scenes maneuvering and the barring of popular candidates
like Khan have led international observers to question the potential for these
elections to be free and fair. The outcome of the vote is crucial, not only for
Pakistan’s internal governance but also for its position on the regional and
international stage. As the country stands on the edge, the impact of these
elections on Pakistan’s future, particularly its democratic processes and
civilian-military balance, remains to be seen.
Iran-Pakistan
Relations
The
relationship between Pakistan and Iran is multifaceted, encompassing aspects of
energy cooperation, border security, and geopolitical alignments, all of which
are significantly influenced by the political climate in Pakistan, particularly
following elections. The Pakistan-Iran border has been a hotspot for
cross-border militancy, with both countries suffering from attacks launched by
militant groups operating in the border regions. The level of cooperation and
joint security measures undertaken by Pakistan and Iran to combat these threats
is influenced by the diplomatic and security policies of Pakistan’s government.
An administration committed to enhancing security cooperation could lead to
more effective control of militant activities.
Pakistan’s
relations with Iran are also influenced by its ties with other countries in the
Middle East, particularly Arab states like Saudi Arabia, as well as its
relationship with the United States. The newly elected Pakistani government
will need to navigate its close ties with the Gulf Arab states and the U.S.,
which have had strained relations with Iran, while also engaging constructively
with Tehran. This balancing act is crucial for Pakistan’s broader foreign
policy strategy and regional diplomacy.
One of
the most prominent projects between Pakistan and Iran is the proposed gas
pipeline intended to transport natural gas from Iran to Pakistan. This project,
often seen as a critical solution to Pakistan’s energy shortages, has faced
delays and obstacles, including international sanctions on Iran. The stance of
the newly elected Pakistani government towards engaging with Iran amidst these
challenges can either propel the project forward or put it on further hold,
significantly affecting energy cooperation between the two countries.
India-Pakistan
Relations
The
longstanding conflict over Kashmir remains a flashpoint between India and
Pakistan. The nature of the elected government in Pakistan could either worsen
tensions or open avenues for dialogue and peace negotiations, depending on its
stance towards India and its willingness to engage in diplomatic efforts.
Military
and security policies of Pakistan’s new leadership will significantly influence
cross-border security situations. An administration with a strong stance on
military might could increase skirmishes along the Line of Control (LoC), while
a government prioritizing peace could reduce incidents of cross-border firing
and infiltration.
Afghanistan-Pakistan
Relations
The
relationship with the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan is crucial.
Pakistan’s role as a mediator and its policies towards the Afghan Taliban will
affect peace and stability in the region. A government in Islamabad looking to
foster stability in Afghanistan could work towards ensuring that Afghan soil is
not used for anti-Pakistan activities.
Relations
between Pakistan and Afghanistan have become increasingly worrying due to
security concerns. Pakistan has accused the Taliban-led government in
Afghanistan of not doing enough to prevent attacks from armed groups, including
the Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP or ISIS-K) and the
Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), across the porous border between the two
countries. A notable incident was a suicide bombing in Bajaur district in July
2023, which killed more than 54 people and was claimed by ISKP. Pakistan has
expressed frustration over what it perceives as the Afghan Taliban’s lack of
decisive action against these groups, leading to a deteriorating security
situation in regions like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
With
ongoing instability in Afghanistan, Pakistan’s approach to managing its border
and handling the refugee situation will impact regional security and
humanitarian concerns. The election outcome could determine the level of
support and cooperation between the two countries in managing these issues.
The
relationship has also been impacted by Pakistan’s decision to expel more than
1.5 million allegedly undocumented Afghan refugees and migrants, a move that
has triggered tensions with Kabul. The Afghan government has criticized the
expulsions as “unilateral” and “humiliating,” highlighting humanitarian
concerns and potential negative effects on bilateral relations. This
large-scale repatriation effort began in earnest after a government deadline
passed at the end of October 2023, leading to more than 200,000 Afghans
crossing back into Afghanistan amid the onset of winter, which adds to the
challenges faced by returning refugees.
China-Pakistan
Relations
The
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the broader strategic partnership
between China and Pakistan are highly dependent on the political climate in
Pakistan. The upcoming government’s stance on CPEC will be instrumental in
determining the pace and scope of development projects that are vital for
regional connectivity and economic growth.
The
depth of the strategic partnership between China and Pakistan could be
influenced by the election outcome, affecting defense cooperation, technology
transfer, and investment. A pro-China administration would likely deepen ties,
further aligning Pakistan with China in regional geopolitics. Historically, the
China-Pakistan relationship was shaped by the common strategic concern over
India, with Pakistan ceding territory to China and China providing Pakistan
with military and economic aid.
China’s
engagement with Pakistan is a key part of its broader strategy to expand
influence across Asia, with the relationship becoming increasingly important
for both countries. The partnership is now openly recognized and celebrated by
China, marking a significant shift from the past when China was more cautious
about its international image and relationships. The strategic and economic
ties between China and Pakistan have implications for regional dynamics,
especially concerning India and China’s ambitions in the international order.
US-Pakistan
Relations
Recent
dynamics in US-Pakistan relations have been influenced by several key factors,
including the aftermath of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and evolving
geopolitical power balances. The Biden administration has adopted a two-track
approach towards Pakistan, characterized by a distinct division of labor:
robust engagement through the State Department, ongoing military and defense
ties, but notably, a lack of direct engagement from the White House itself.
This approach marks a departure from previous US administrations, where
engagement with Pakistan often included direct White House involvement with
Pakistani leaders.
Focus
has broadened beyond just security concerns related to Afghanistan, with
efforts from both sides to enhance cooperation in areas like trade, investment,
and connectivity. Despite these efforts, the overall relationship between the
two countries remains tenuous, affected by historical grievances, Pakistan’s
political dynamics, and the broader context of great power competition. The
U.S. has shown a willingness to engage with Pakistan on economic matters and
disaster relief, as evidenced by various high-level meetings and dialogues
focused on expanding bilateral relations beyond mere security concerns.
Pakistan
and US relations are at a critical juncture, reflecting a complex interplay of
historical ties, recent geopolitical shifts, and evolving priorities on both
sides. The future of this relationship will likely depend on how both countries
manage to adapt to these changes while finding mutual ground in areas of shared
interest.
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