Generally, the republics harbor distrust towards China, wary of becoming subservient to Beijing. Simultaneously, they fiercely value their independence and resist returning to Russian influence. Economically, they lean towards China, while preferring Russia for security cooperation. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan all participate in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and all except Turkmenistan are part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Among them, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan belong to the Collective Security Organization (CSO), comprising six former Soviet states. In 2022, just before the Ukraine invasion, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev sought military assistance from the CSTO to quell unrest in Almaty and other cities.

Moscow’s Long Shadow

The Russian invasion of Ukraine revealed the republics’ limited trust in Russia, as they hesitated to endorse the invasion officially. However, their reliance on Russia restrained them from outright condemnation. Following Western sanctions on Russia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, both part of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), experienced disruptions in ruble payments from Russia for customs duties. Eventually, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan affirmed Ukraine’s territorial integrity and provided humanitarian aid to the conflict zone.

The Central Asian Republics increasingly doubt Russia’s ability to fulfill their security needs. Regardless of their stance on the Ukraine invasion, it certainly did not escape their notice that Russia failed to achieve a swift victory. Moreover, Russia played a negligible role in the 2022 border conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Additionally, Moscow couldn’t safeguard Armenian Christians in Nagorno-Karabakh during their expulsion by the Azerbaijani military in 2023. In response, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan publicly questioned Russia’s capability to protect Armenian interests and contemplated withdrawing Armenia from the CSTO. Consequently, Armenia has been strengthening military ties with the United States.

The CSTO faces another setback in its sustainability with Georgia, a predominantly Christian nation, shifting toward Europe, NATO, and the EU. Despite being the largest army among the republics, Uzbekistan never joined the CSTO. Initially, Uzbekistan permitted the United States to establish an airbase on its territory, but pressure from Russia and China led to the withdrawal of permission. Despite the CSTO’s weakening and Russia’s declining military influence, the Central Asian republics and other former Soviet states haven’t sought military partnerships with China. This situation presents an opportunity for the US to emerge as the security partner of the Central Asian republics, given the perceived decline in Russian power to a level where Russian objections could be disregarded.

China and Other External Players

As Russian influence declines, China intensifies its engagement with the republics. Approximately a year after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Beijing initiated the China-Central Asia Summit (C+C5) to draw Central Asia further into its sphere. Historically, when both China and Russia were strong, they preferred to maintain a buffer. However, with Russia’s current weaknesses – its economy struggling and military resources stretched thin – China is seizing the opportunity to court the republics. Nevertheless, Russia propagated anti-China sentiments in the republics during the 1990s, leaving a lasting impact. Moreover, China’s past efforts to limit the Central Asian Republics’ influence on its Uyghur minority in Xinjiang linger in memory. Despite China’s recent outreach efforts, the republics remain wary due to awareness of China’s reeducation camps and repression of Muslims. Concerns over debt from the Belt and Road Initiative, unfinished projects, unrealized GDP gains, and compromised sovereignty regarding foreign policy and engagement with the West act as significant barriers to closer ties with China.

Turkey and Iran have historically wielded significant influence in the region. Turkey tends to be more secular, whereas Iran supports various factions and militant groups, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, in countries like Syria, Yemen, and Afghanistan. Although there was a resurgence of Islam and some fundamentalism in the republics after the Soviet Union’s collapse, the majority of the population in these nations rejects the presence of the Islamic State or terrorism. They are determined not to become another Afghanistan.

Amid concerns about the risks of excessive proximity or dependence on China or Russia, the Central Asian Republics seek an alternative path. They are exploring options beyond alignment with either nation. The Organization of Turkic States, previously known as the Turkic Council or the Cooperation Council of Turkic Speaking States, serves as an intergovernmental organization encompassing all Central Asian Republics except one, offering a potential avenue for collaboration.

The republics are also turning their attention to the EU and the United States. In November 2022, the EU inked a Memorandum of Strategic Partnership with Kazakhstan. During President Trump’s tenure, Central Asia’s view of the United States saw improvement. Thus, the outcome of the 2024 US elections could influence future relations. Presently, the US ranks third, trailing behind Russia and China in most soft power and economic engagement metrics with the republics. However, both the U.S. and EU share an interest in rare earth minerals and other resources, while the republics aim to diversify their markets. Collaborating on rare earth contracts presents an opportunity for closer cooperation between Western powers and the republics.

The Organization of Turkic States (OTS) is gaining significance, aiming to enhance cooperation among Turkic states, which share common historical, linguistic, and cultural ties. This increased integration poses a challenge to the dominance of China and Russia. Turkey, traditionally influential in the region, further asserts its influence through leadership in the OTS. Through the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Councils, these relationships are expanding across various domains such as trade, transportation, communications, and development aid. Additionally, as a NATO member, Turkey has the potential to bolster relations between the Central Asian republics and the US and Europe. The combined efforts of the United States and the EU could offer the Central Asian Republics greater investment and trade opportunities compared to what China provides, with more favorable terms, lower interest rates, and without jeopardizing sovereignty or risking absorption into greater China or Russia. Moreover, the United States can act as the security guarantor, a role the republics would never entrust to China.