Israel is bracing for a direct and unprecedented attack by Iran on government targets as soon as Saturday, according to people familiar with western intelligence assessments, a move that has the potential to trigger an all-out regional war.
An
assault from Iranian soil has emerged as one of the main scenarios expected by
the Jewish state and its allies, said the people, who asked not to be
identified as they aren’t authorized to discuss the matter publicly. A
bombardment with drones and precision missiles could come within the next 48
hours, they said.
Oil
jumped to the highest level since October on the news, rallying as much as 2.6%
to top $92 a barrel. Futures have surged 19% this year with the war adding risk
premium to the market.
The US
is preparing defenses and moved additional military assets to the region, while
intensifying diplomatic efforts to rein in hostilities, the people said. The
attack still hasn’t been approved by Tehran’s highest-ranking officials, they
said.
An
Iranian missile and drone barrage would represent a retaliation for a deadly
strike on its diplomatic compound in Syria last week, which the Islamic
Republic blames on Israel. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has repeatedly
said Israel will be “punished” for the assault, though stopped short of saying
what form such a counter move would take.
One of
the people said it’s possible that the increasingly inflammatory rhetoric
between Israel, Iran, and the US could be grandstanding, but said the working
assumption for Israel and allies is that an attack is imminent. Diplomatic
back-channels are in overdrive, the people said.
US
officials including Jake Sullivan and Brett McGurk have been working to send
messages to Iran, including through an established Swiss channel, one of the
people said, while talking to Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other
governments.
White
House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre said Thursday the US has warned Iran not
to use Israel’s attack on Syria as a pretext to escalate hostilities further.
“We’ve
seen the threats coming from Iran and so we have made ourselves very clear
where we stand in supporting Israel’s security,” she said. “That is ironclad.”
Any
Iranian attack on Israel would likely be a combination of missiles and drones,
based on current capabilities outlined in a new Defense Intelligence Agency
Worldwide Threat assessment released late Thursday.
The
regime “has a substantial inventory of ballistic and cruise missiles capable of
striking targets as far as 2,000 kilometers from its borders,” the agency said.
Bloomberg
News reported on Wednesday the US and allies were expecting a major escalation
of hostilities, with targeted attacks on Israeli government and military sites.
The Jewish State hasn’t claimed or denied responsibility for the Damascus
attack, in keeping with a decades-long policy of ambiguity on operations in
Syria, Lebanon and elsewhere.
A direct
Israel-Iran conflict would significantly rachet up hostilities in the Middle
East, where tensions have been rising since Israel began its war against Hamas
in Gaza in October, after the Iran-backed militant group invaded the country
and killed about 1,200 people. Hamas is designated a terrorist organization by
the US and European Union.
Other
members of the Islamic Republic’s so-called Axis of Resistance, chiefly
Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Yemen-based Houthis, have stepped up their
aggression in recent months.
The
escalating hostilities have drawn direct intervention from senior diplomats. UK
Foreign Secretary David Cameron warned Iran Thursday that an attack would
escalate and drag in a wider array of actors.
Western
officials said intelligence showed Iran is preparing an attack on Israel any
day after Eid al-Fitr, the Muslim holiday celebrated on April 10, adding the
next 48 hours were critical to see if the message to diffuse tensions had
successfully reached Tehran.
***With
assistance from Alberto Nardelli and Tony Capaccio.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/israel-bracing-potential-direct-attack-131532106.html
