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15/04/2024 | Opinion - US: Joe Biden Gets Good News From America's Most Accurate Pollster

Thomas Kika

President Joe Biden received good news as the weekend began after his support trended in a positive direction in the latest survey from a pollster that has been dubbed the most accurate in the United States.


Biden is the presumptive 2024 Democratic nominee for president as he seeks reelection. He is set for a general election rematch with the presumptive Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump, who is also seeking a second term after losing to Biden in 2020.

Polling has generally shown the candidates neck-and-neck in hypothetical match-ups, though early surveys were generally more likely to give a slight edge to Trump. This fact was partially attributable to Biden's consistently struggling approval ratings and concerns about his age, two issues that have also been applied to Trump. In recent weeks, however, polls have shown a trend towards Biden, with more now likely to give him a slight edge, potentially owing to the increased visibility of Trump's criminal trials and the growing unpopularity of GOP opposition to abortion rights.

On Saturday, a new poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College was released, showing a continued trend amongst respondents towards Biden, while still giving Trump a slight edge. The poll, conducted April 7-11 from a pool of 1,059 registered voters, found 47 percent of respondents backed Trump, while 46 percent backed Biden. This represented a positive movement towards Biden, as a poll from the same source in February showed a four-point lead for Trump, with earlier surveys than that giving Trump even bigger margins.

A ranking of pollster accuracy from FiveThirtyEight previously named New York Times/Siena the most accurate in the U.S., according to ABC News.

"The New York Times/Siena College, for example, is the most accurate pollster in America," ABC News' report explained. "Due to its accuracy and transparency, it and ABC News/Washington Post are also the only two pollsters with a three-star rating."

Saturday's poll showed a trend of growing support for Biden among those who voted for him in 2020, an area he has struggled with compared to Trump. In the February poll, only 85 percent of voters who backed Biden four years ago said they would do so again this year, while in the Saturday poll, that number shifted to 90 percent. Trump, meanwhile, saw a negative trend in this key area, shifting from the 97 percent support he got in the February poll down to 94 percent.

Newsweek reached out to the Biden campaign via email on Saturday afternoon for comment.

The poll also, however, showed considerable headwinds of unpopularity for both candidates. Biden's disapproval rating remained at 47 percent, the same as in February, while his net favorability climbed to only 42 percent from 41 in the last poll. Trump's net favorability was only slightly higher at 44 percent.

Newsweek (Estados Unidos)


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