Saparmurat Niyazov, the autocratic ruler of Turkmenistan, died Dec. 21. The self-styled Turkmenbashi left no apparent successor, as he sought to remove anyone who might compete with him for power. As the chaos of choosing the next ruler ensues, Russia will seek to exert the greatest influence possible on the events that are unfolding, and on the final result.

Russia is the only state that was capable of wielding any kind of influence over the eccentric Turkmen ruler. Although Niyazov frequently broke agreements with Russia, he was still thought to be within Moscow's orbit, if only on its outer edges.

Turkmenistan is very important, if not essential, to Russia's foreign policy. The Central Asian country supplies natural gas to Russian energy monopoly Gazprom, which Gazprom then resells at a profit to its European customers (and which Russia uses to wield political influence over other countries). Since Turkmenbashi's death, the Kremlin has been hard at work, probing its contacts within Turkmenistan's ruling elite and energy industry in an effort to figure out how best to manipulate the selection of the next ruler. Moscow has many levers of influence with members of Turkmenistan's government, who are a legacy of Soviet times and well known to their Russian counterparts. Gazprom also wants to ensure its continuing presence in the country. In the midst of the chaos, the company could try to acquire Turkmen assets as insurance for its future role there.

Russia will focus on influencing the selection of Niyazov's successor. Currently, the Cabinet of Ministers and the National Security Council seem to be in control. (They were reportedly the authorities that installed Deputy Prime Minister Gurbanguly Berdimukhammedov as interim president.) The degree to which these governing bodies are willing to cooperate with Russia will determine whether Moscow gets to call the shots from now on.

During years of purges, Turkmenbashi imprisoned or exiled many government members. Whether Russia now chooses to support them or remove them depends on which option will most benefit the Kremlin. Due to the purges, leaders in Turkmenistan serve extremely short terms, which means no one in the current government is a great choice. Russia will have to rework the leadership in a very broad way, or select one person and find a way to empower him. However, Moscow is unlikely to back Turkmenistan's so-called "pro-democracy" opposition parties, as that would invite influence from Europe and the United States, which support this movement.

Moscow could choose to support Turkmenistan's ethnic Russian minority. Although more than 200,000 ethnic Russians have left for other Central Asian states or Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union, about 100,000 still live in Turkmenistan. It is possible that Russia will use their presence as a lever and call for recognition of their rights. Additionally, some of the Russians who emigrated could return to Turkmenistan, ostensibly to support the Russian agenda (at Moscow's behest, of course).

There are several signs that would indicate Russia is consolidating its position in Turkmenistan. An agreement with the interim or new government on the rights of the Russian minority in Turkmenistan would point to an increase in Moscow's influence there. Moscow also might seek to involve Turkmenistan more in Russian-led regional organizations, perhaps by restoring its full membership in the Commonwealth of Independent States -- Turkmenbashi downgraded the country to an associate member in 2005 -- or by making Turkmenistan a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

Russia will likely see competition from China, Iran and the Central Asian states, all of which want a hand in shaping Turkmenistan's future. Iran has concerns about its northern border, while China wants to expand energy cooperation with Turkmenistan. The Central Asian states are competing for influence with Russia, which, in turn, wields influence over all of them to various extents.

To keep an anti-Moscow regime from assuming power in Turkmenistan, Russia could employ other tactics, such as applying economic pressure or even deploying troops or special forces in order to "stabilize the situation." Assassinations are also possible, especially given the recent spate of politically charged targeted killings.

Though it is unclear who will emerge as the next leader of Turkmenistan, Russia will either have a hand in installing the new ruler or will act to remove anyone who clashes with Moscow's interests in the Central Asian state.