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05/02/2007 | Nigeria: Election Season and Delta Violence

Stratfor Staff

Nigerian militants put 24 Philippine hostages on display Feb. 1 and demanded the release of imprisoned militant leader Mujahid Dokubo-Asari.

 

The militants said they would initiate attacks against oil facilities and security personnel if the Nigerian government does not comply within 72 hours. Because presidential and state elections are looming, Nigeria will see attacks regardless of whether Dokubo-Asari is released; targets in Rivers and Bayelsa states will bear the brunt of this unrest.

Nigerian militants in the Niger Delta displayed 24 Philippine hostages Feb. 1 that have been missing since Jan. 20. The hostage-takers said they represent the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) and demanded the release of Mujahid Dokubo-Asari, their imprisoned leader. The militants said that if Dokubo-Asari was not released within 72 hours, they would carry out attacks against the delta region's oil installations and workers.

The government probably will ignore the demand for the release of Dokubo-Asari, who was convicted of treason in September 2005 for advocating the Niger Delta region's secession and the overthrow of President Olusegun Obasanjo. Regardless of whether Dokubo-Asari is released, looming elections in Nigeria mean militant attacks on the delta region's oil infrastructure will occur, with targets in Bayelsa and Rivers states particularly at risk.

The struggles for control over the immense sums generated by Nigeria's oil industry drives much of the violence in the Niger Delta, with the oil companies that operate in the region caught in the middle of the vicious cycle of violence. To stave off such incidents, oil companies pay off local chiefs and community development agencies to compensate for the social and environmental harms perpetrated by their petroleum operations. They also pay off private security forces, youth factions and local and state government officials; these three sets of payees often cooperate.

Nigeria's parliamentary elections are set for April 12, with presidential and state gubernatorial elections slated for a week later. Campaign season is expected to be especially violent in the Niger Delta region due to the huge resources at stake. Bayelsa state Gov. Goodluck Jonathan is running for vice president on the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) ticket. He shares the ticket with Umaru Musa Yaradua, the governor of the northern state of Katsina, who emerged Dec. 16, 2007, from the PDP primary to become the party's candidate. Yaradua bested rival Rivers state Gov. Peter Odili for the position.

Until his arrest, Dokubo-Asari headed the Ijaw Youth Council (IYC), a militant group that has worked with MEND under the banner of the Joint Revolutionary Council. The council has a close relationship with Odili, who is thought to have provided the IYC with weapons, cash and information on oil installation locations. In turn, the IYC has surveilled oil companies, conducted bunkering operations (the illegal tapping and sale of crude oil) to generate more money and campaigned for Odili, including issuing threats to his opponents.

The race for the Bayelsa and Rivers state governorships is therefore expected to spawn renewed violence. Thwarted in his bid for the PDP presidential nomination, Odili is running for re-election. Meanwhile, the race to succeed Jonathan as Bayelsa state governor is under way. In addition to the oil company payoffs, control of Niger Delta state governments brings with it close to $2 billion in annual federal funds. (Abuja returns 13 percent of its earnings from oil and natural gas exports to the states that produced the resources, with few rules about how the money must be spent.)

With fewer than four months until Nigeria's elections, the immense amounts of money at stake will mean increased attacks against the country's oil infrastructure.

 

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 



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