Meanwhile, Abe's disapproval rating has risen to 44.1 percent, exceeding his approval rating for the first time since he was voted into office Sept. 26, 2006. Abe's popularity dipped 4.7 percent from the last polls in mid-January, and his disapproval rating rose 5.2 percent. The change has been attributed to Abe's backing of Health, Welfare and Labor Minister Hakuo Yanagisawa, despite Yanagisawa's recent statement in which he called women "birth-giving machines" during a discussion on Japan's birthrate and population issues.

Abe has continued to support Yanagisawa despite cries for his resignation from within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) as well as from opposition parties and various social organizations, and even in spite of an opposition boycott of parliament demanding the resignation. Even before Yanagisawa's slip of the tongue, however, support for Abe was falling -- the public does not perceive him to be an effective prime minister or show any leadership skills. This has only strengthened his resolve to hold on to Yanagisawa, if only to show that he can, and will, remain in charge.

In some sense, Abe really had little chance to gain strong public support since he followed the charismatic anomaly of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Koizumi redefined the position of prime minister, leading his party and nation on the strength of his personality. Abe lacks the flair and panache of his predecessor, and few in Japanese politics can really match Koizumi's public persona. Abe will have to rely on other methods to increase public support for him and his key policies -- revising Japanese national identity, revising the constitution, revising the military and strengthening Japan's international role.

In order to do this, Abe is moving toward a more foreign policy-oriented platform, one that will pit Japan against one of its rivals, and thus serve as a rallying point for strong unified support. If Abe were to follow in the footsteps of his predecessor, he would target China.

China's recent anti-satellite weapons test raised significant concerns in Japan, since Tokyo has only a few functional spy satellites and sees a challenge in China's growing military capabilities. Chinese energy firms were recently cited for continuing development of offshore natural gas fields near a disputed boundary between Japanese and Chinese maritime territory. And the Japanese Coast Guard on Feb. 4 spotted a Chinese "research" vessel in claimed Japanese waters around the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyutai islands, some 186 miles outside the area that China told Japan it would be surveying.

But Abe is also committed to improving Japanese relations with China, or at least smoothing over the public rift seen in the late years of the Koizumi government. Abe's first overseas visit was to China, not Japanese ally the United States. Abe needs to soften the sense of tension between Tokyo and Beijing if he wants to further his major policy goals. He must do this particularly on the international front, where he wants to show that Japan's constitutional and defense reforms are nonthreatening, and that Japan's bid for a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council does not reflect a new Japanese imperialism.

Rather than targeting China, then, Abe has set his sights on North Korea. Following North Korea's nuclear test in October (less than a month after Abe came to office), Japan has steadily decreased its remaining economic links to North Korea, cutting bilateral trade to nearly zero in recent months. The Japanese administration has also grown more vocal over what it would or would not accept in the six-party nuclear talks with North Korea, expected to resume Feb. 8.

Pyongyang is leaking its offer for the upcoming talks -- demanding energy supplies, removal of U.S. sanctions and removal from the U.S. list of international terrorism sponsors. In return it would shut down the Yongbyon nuclear reactor, reactivate International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) cameras at the Yongbyon facility, and allow IAEA inspectors into the facility.

Tokyo has already warned that it will not send energy supplies to North Korea unless Pyongyang completely shuts down its nuclear program and finds resolution for its abduction of Japanese citizens in the 1970s and 1980s. Since the latter is unlikely to be resolved any time soon -- at least not to Japan's satisfaction -- and the former is unlikely in the best-case scenario until well down the road, Tokyo is essentially forgoing participation in any settlement at the upcoming round of talks. In this way, Abe can exploit the emotional issue of the abductions at home and appear to be taking a strong stance regarding Japan's interests.

However, recent hints from Tokyo that it could withdraw from the six-party negotiations altogether if its interests are not addressed could make things difficult. Though doing this might rally some support at home, it would complicate matters for the United States and other parties to the talks. Without Japanese participation, the current talk format begins to break down, increasing the differences of opinion and policy among the various members of the negotiations. And since Abe does not really expect significant progress in the talks, this is not necessarily a major loss so long as it serves his purposes at home.

For now, Abe's chief concern is to strengthen public support and regain some control over his party. Rifts among the LDP caucus leaders in the upper and lower houses of parliament, disagreements within Abe's party and the massive shadow of Koizumi are leaving Abe with minimal support and significant challenges. The opposition, meanwhile, is looking to take advantage of Koizumi's absence to gain seats in the April local elections and July parliamentary elections -- and striking out at Abe is the preferred course.

As the elections near, Abe is likely to take an even more vocal and hard-line stance against North Korea, exaggerating the sense of crisis in order to demonstrate his leadership and the need to unify the nation under a single, strong leader. But if China continues to provoke Japan, Abe will shift his sights to Beijing, bringing back the tensions between the two states seen last year.