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18/04/2007 | Brazil - Crime, Deployments and Staying Power in Rio

Stratfor Staff

The governor of Rio de Janeiro state will meet with ministers from Brazil's federal government April 16 to request the deployment of federal troops to combat crime in the southeastern Brazilian state. If approved, deploying troops could reduce some of the lawlessness plaguing the state -- provided the political will exists to leave the troops in place long enough.

 

Rio de Janeiro state Gov. Sergio Cabral will meet with several of Brazil's federal government ministers April 16 to request the deployment of troops to his crime-ridden state. Though the deployment could alleviate some of Rio de Janeiro's violent crime, it remains to be seen whether the political will exists for keeping the troops in place long enough to do any good.

Cabral asked Brazilian President Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva on April 12 to send federal troops to quell the southeastern Brazilian state's out-of-control crime. Da Silva responded favorably to the request by Cabral, one of the president's valued political allies. Public outrage over high rates of crime in the state meant the governor had to take action, and the deployment of troops would be a highly visible sign Cabral takes the problem seriously.

The killing of a bodyguard assigned to Cabral's children's protective detail earlier during the week of April 8 also prompted the governor's request. The killing occurred during the course of a carjacking while the bodyguard was on his way to work. Sources in the city of Rio de Janeiro say the bodyguard was shot seven times during the incident. According to security sources in the city, the bodyguard resisted the carjackers because he knew that as soon as the assailants discovered that he was a police officer, in all probability they would have killed him.

The governor became infuriated after the incident and asked da Silva to send in the army for one year, with soldiers patrolling the highways and major roads in the state. But even though the troops will enhance the police presence on the streets, they are unlikely to perform much actual police work.

Federal security forces performed a similar function during Carnival celebrations in the state in February in the form of a National Security Force, although this was composed of federal police, not soldiers. Prior to Carnival, Brazilian police carried out an operation to interdict the flow of drugs and gang members into Rio de Janeiro by establishing checkpoints on the roads leading into the city. These checkpoints, combined with police raids on drug gangs in the favelas and anti-narcotics operations along Brazil's border with Paraguay, disrupted the supply of drugs to traffickers in the city, which caused a shortfall in gang leaders' revenue. To compensate, gang leaders reportedly ordered their members to make up the money through robbing and stealing, which led to an increase in crime.

In addition to the need to make up for lost drug revenue, increased tensions between local police and the gangs -- resulting from militias encroaching on gangs' territory -- have contributed to Rio de Janeiro's violence. An unofficial war between gangs and local police has been going on since late 2006, although it has abated somewhat in recent months.

Many police officers in Rio de Janeiro moonlight as members of neighborhood militias in the favelas where many of them live. These militias sometimes battle drug trafficking gangs and the organized criminal gangs in the city -- such as Comando Vermelho, Amigos dos Amigos and Terceiro Comando -- for control of the favelas. These gangs in turn carry out reprisal attacks against on-duty police officers; they have killed more than 30 officers since the beginning of 2007, most of whom were shot execution-style.

Cabral very much opposes the militias, and sees army intervention as a way to reduce their power and prevent them from further expanding. His approach contrasts with that of the neighboring state of Sao Paulo, where Gov. Jose Serra, a da Silva opponent, does not want to give Brasilia control of his city's streets.

Although the military has been deployed to Rio de Janeiro before with limited success, Brazilian Justice Minister Tarso Genro opposes the deployment requested by Cabral, saying the troops are ill-suited for police work. Brazil's defense minister also has expressed reluctance to deploy the troops, citing potential legal issues. Despite their opposition, it is unlikely the ministers will go against a decision by da Silva to support the governor by sending troops.

Reluctant commanders on the ground and officials in Brasilia could reduce the troops' effectiveness. To be successful this time, the troops will need to take a more active role in supporting the police -- such as going into the favelas and replacing the militias, and staying in place for a longer period as Cabral has requested.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


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