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20/04/2007 | Russia's Grand Strategy for the East

Stratfor Staff

North Korea is counting on Russia to forgive its $8.8 billion debt, RIA Novosti reported on Wednesday, citing Konstantin Pulikovsky, who oversees economic discussions between Moscow and Pyongyang as the Russian co-chair of an intergovernmental commission. In comments to the Russian state news agency, Pulikovsky called the debt issue -- which has resurfaced several times since talks between the two countries were revived in March after a six-year hiatus -- a "political one" that falls "within the scope of the countries' top leadership."

 

In essence, Pulikovsky said the debt is a matter for Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il to hash out, a not-so-subtle hint that if Kim truly wants the matter resolved, he must take the long train ride to Moscow.

Pulikovsky's roundabout invitation is part of a broader move by Russia to refocus on Asia and regain its lost influence in the region. For half a decade, Moscow has concentrated almost exclusively on its European neighbors, largely ignoring any development in the Far East or East Asia. But this is changing. As competition in Asia between Japan and China heats up, and as the Chinese, Japanese and South Korean militaries -- particularly their navies -- undergo rapid shifts in composition and activity, Russia is seeing a potential weakness in its eastern flank.

With the reduction of the U.S. presence in the Asia Pacific since the 9/11 attacks, China and Japan have moved to fill the void, spreading their own economic and political influence and battling to dominate the region. But as Moscow looks to the future -- to shoring up its internal weaknesses and rebuilding its regional and global influence -- it sees that it is being increasingly left out of the Pacific theater.

In this initial phase of re-engagement, Moscow is using its old partner North Korea. As a participant in the six-party talks, Moscow has an automatic "in." By offering North Korea economic incentives, Russia can capitalize on the rift between Pyongyang and Beijing, drawing North Korea closer to Moscow as Pyongyang looks for ways to reduce its dependency on China. This, in turn, weakens China's grip on North Korea and reduces its leverage with the United States, South Korea and Japan, as all three are relying on Beijing to deliver North Korea. If Moscow can fill that role, then why look to China?

But Russia's engagement of North Korea is just one piece of its overall strategy. Russia also is working to strengthen its military forces in the Pacific. Traditionally, Moscow uses its military to influence developments in neighboring states. But its military history in the Far East is made up mainly of failures -- such as the Russo-Japanese War -- with few successes. The country has not forgotten this.

Russia has always kept its military strength focused in the Western part of the country in order to protect Moscow, and has largely ignored its Pacific forces. However, during a visit to the disputed Kurile Islands in early April, Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov announced Russian plans to focus its efforts on the Pacific naval fleet. Of Russia's four fleets, three -- the Black Sea, Northern and Baltic fleets -- are designed to cope with threats from the West, but its Pacific fleet lacks the capability to keep up. Addressing the reason for the move, Ivanov said, "[The East] is a region where there is a risk of conflict. Here you have the United States, China, Korea and Japan, and there are absolutely no rules of the game." Other Russian government officials have hinted before that the country might be setting its sights on the East, but this is the first time anyone has said this outright.

Russia has never really needed to protect its eastern front, which is mostly unpopulated -- and for good reason. There is little risk of a major Chinese land grab, given the inhospitable climate. However, now Russia has a very good reason to turn its eyes eastward. Vast, though largely untapped, resources -- from energy to timber to minerals -- lie there, and Moscow appears to be preparing to exploit these resources. Energy, in particular, can offer Moscow additional leverage in East Asia; China, Japan and the Koreas are hungrily eyeing Russian natural gas, and Moscow could very well trap them into depending on it for energy as it did to Europe.

But executing the other parts of Russia's strategy for the East will not be easy or quick. Russia's military and energy strategies will eat up an enormous amount of money; time, which Russia has; and technology, which is rusty at best. This is not to say Russia cannot revamp its military or build many of its planned energy projects, but this would take decades and a lot of cash.

Still, Russia's years of ignoring the Far East are coming to an end. Moscow now sees a small window in which to regain influence, and its first target is North Korea -- which currently acts as a pivot around which the large regional powers rotate. If Moscow can gain a stronger foothold in Pyongyang, it can attain increased leverage and undercut the other large powers. This will allow Russia to overcome the first obstacle to executing its grand strategy for the East.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


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