Brzezinski has been parsing world events for policymakers, scholars and readers for many years. He taught at Harvard and then Columbia universities, on and off, from 1953 until 1989. He took four high-profile years away from academia in the 1970s to work out of a corner office in the White House and globetrot as then-president Jimmy Carter's national security adviser.

In line with his ivy-covered career, Brzezinski recently conferred an academic grade on President Bush for his performance in office. With 20 months left in Bush's presidency, Brzezinski unhesitatingly gave him an F. The failing mark reflects Brzezinski's view that the U.S. invasion of Iraq has proved to be the disaster he feared it would be. It is also timely, because "the president has resigned himself to bequeath the war" to the next president.

"I don't believe any successor of his is going to continue the war," Brzezinski added.
Bush's two immediate predecessors, Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush, fared better when tested by Brzezinski for their "global leadership" skills. The first president Bush earned a "solid B," while Clinton came away with an "uneven C."

Those bottom-line evaluations appear in a "presidential report card" on page 185 of Brzezinski's 10th book: "Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower," published by Basic Books last month.

The second chance in the title reflects Brzezinski's belief that whoever follows Bush -- Brzezinski assumes it will be a Democrat -- has the potential to set things right. But this is no sure bet, Brzezinski writes, for "it will take years of deliberate effort and genuine skill to restore America's political credibility and legitimacy."

The next time had better be it: Brzezinski holds "there will be no third chance." Sliding into an academic idiom -- as he is wont to do in print -- he concludes that the next president must find a way to restore the nation's great power status by "tangibly relating American power to the aspirations of politically awakened humanity."

"This country became the leader of the world in 1991," Brzezinski said. "We had a unique opportunity. That's what my book is about. And we still have that opportunity. We may have it after 2008. But if we don't exercise it intelligently, we are going to get bogged down. Power will be disbursed to other centers of power. That may not be so bad. But it's likely to be very chaotic."

In person, Brzezinski assumes an easy manner, as he did while clearing his plate of scrambled eggs, bacon and sausages at a breakfast with reporters last week. The Christian Science Monitor's Washington bureau, which has been sponsoring such newsgathering events for decades, arranged the meeting at a hotel near Lafayette Square.

"I came to this country as a young kid, and the first thing I saw on a gray November day … was the Statue of Liberty," Brzezinski recalled. "Somebody explained to me what it was. That was always the symbol of America. I don't need to tell you what the symbol of America is today to most people in the world."

"Iraq?" several reporters ventured.
"No," Brzezinski said sadly, "it's Guantanamo."
Brzezinski first saw the iconic statue in 1938, when he arrived in New York as a 10-year-old Polish boy who spoke no English. His family was on its way to Canada, where Poland had posted his diplomat father, Tadeusz Brzezinski. Earlier, the Brzezinskis had lived in Berlin from 1931 to 1935, as Adolf Hitler and the Nazis rose to power, and in Moscow from 1936 to 1938, during Josef Stalin's bloody purges of his comrades.

In 1939, Hitler and Stalin cut a deal that sealed Poland's fate. Soon after, Germany, and 17 days later the Soviet Union, invaded. Loath to return to a Communist-run Poland after World War II, the family remained in Canada. In 1945, Brzezinski enrolled at Montreal's McGill University, where he earned both his bachelor's and master's degrees before decamping for Harvard. He became a U.S. citizen in 1958.

Over time, Brzezinski became increasingly involved in the making of foreign policy. He advised presidents John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson and vice president Hubert Humphrey. He also took on Madeleine K. Albright, a Czech-born graduate student, as a protégé. She later joined Brzezinski in the Carter White House as his press and legislative aide.

Albright went on to be secretary of state under Clinton, an ambition that eluded Brzezinski. Friends say he sees himself in the same heavy-hitting policy league as Henry Kissinger -- but with a better overall batting average. The two men followed similar career paths, with Kissinger serving two Republican presidents, Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. Although Brzezinski remained a Democrat, he backed the first president Bush in his 1988 race against then-Massachusetts governor Michael Dukakis, whom Albright advised.

When the United States invaded Iraq four years ago, secretary of state Colin Powell, defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld and national security adviser Condoleezza Rice jointly briefed Brzezinski. In light of his blunt criticism, such top-level briefings are over. Brzezinski, however, still meets with key government people over lunch at the Metropolitan Club and other discreet venues.

Nowadays, Brzezinski advises House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on how the United States can extricate itself militarily from Iraq while refraining from going to war with neighboring Iran, despite potentially treacherous provocations by both sides.

"If we get involved in Iran, we are going to get bogged down in a protracted military undertaking that will span Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan, probably for the next three to four years," Brzezinski warned. "And then you can look at the world and say goodbye to U.S. leadership. We are going to be very busy."

Brzezinski does not hide his disappointment at the way Bush has governed since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington. As he puts it, "It's a win-win situation to play (the terrorist) card. Because if nothing happens, you can say you prevented it from happening. And if it happens, you can claim you were right all along. ... That's why it's so tempting. But I think it is also counterculturally pernicious. We have become oblivious to the extent we have become a fear-driven society."

Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinsk is a CSIS counselor and trustee and cochairs the CSIS Advisory Board.