Significance

Bakiyev has been appointed as Acting President and Prime Minister by the country's parliament, which has also named iconic opposition leader Felix Kulov, who was freed from prison by the protestors, as the new Security Minister. 

Implications

In spite of the jubilation of the opposition there will be a number of problems to resolve in the short term. Many powerful elements in the capital, Bishkek, did not support the overthrow of President Akayev and will not accept any redistributive programme from politicians determined to significantly increase spending in their southern constituencies. 

Outlook

Bakiyev's appointment as interim president appears a short-term solution aimed at avoiding a power vacuum. He is likely to remain in the top seat pending elections, possibly as early as May or June.

Kyrgyzstan Awakens to a New Dawn

Akayev's administration was finally swept from power yesterday, when thousands of anti-government protestors overrun the presidential palace, commonly known as the 'White House', which stood as the last symbol of government following the collapse of other government institutions in recent days in the face of the popular protests. The protests began late last month following the announcement of the 27 February parliamentary elections, which were widely seen as fraudulent. But the protests quickly turned into a general protest against Akayev's regime and the country's worsening poverty, unemployment and corruption problems.

Long Reign

Akayev had presided over the Central Asian republic since its independence from the Soviet Union and was in his third term of office after a landslide election victory in October 2000 that was criticised as unfair by international election observers. Although his term in office was initially marked by a commitment to economic reform which saw him push through an impressive number of reforms, he became more authoritarian and corrupt in his latter years, fuelling the growing resentment against him. There are confusing reports about his whereabouts this morning, with some reports suggesting that he is in neighbouring Kazakhstan after his quest for asylum was turned down by Russia. 

With Akayev having departed the scene and with no obvious successor to take over, Bakiyev - leader of the opposition People's Movement of Kyrgyzstan and the opposition coordinating council - was named as acting prime minister by the country's Legislative Assembly (the upper house) - an appointment which also makes him the country's acting president. However, his appointment is likely to be on a short-term basis, with the Central Asian country expected to held elections in the next three months.

Contenders To The Throne

With real power in Kyrgyzstan resting with the executive, there will be considerable pressure from the international community on the recently elected but redundant Jogorku Kenesh (unicameral parliament) to increase the power of the legislative either before or after the re-run elections. Nevertheless, having dominated both the political and economic process in Kyrgyzstan since the country's independence in August 1991, any transition in Kyrgyzstan was going to be difficult and the departure of President Akayev leaves a major power vacuum at the heart of the Kyrgyz political system.

Despite the scenes of jubilant demonstrators witnessed yesterday, the opposition leaders understand that they do not represent the entire spectrum of Kyrgyz society. With the international media primarily highlighting the similarities of yesterday's events in Kyrgyzstan to the November 2003 'Rose Revolution' in Georgia and last year's 'Orange Revolution' in Ukraine, the differences within Kyrgyz society have to a large extent been overlooked and there remains notable backing, particularly among the business elites, for a consensus candidate for president. However, having taken over the reins of power, one of these figures from the opposition remain the most likely choice to succeed Akayev:

Felix Kulov: One of the first steps during the opposition's seizure of power yesterday was the emancipation of Felix Kulov, who has now become the obvious choice to compete as the unified opposition candidate. As one of the only serious threats to Akayev, he was sentenced to 10 years in prison in May 2002 for alleged embezzlement while in office. When he was Mayor of Bishkek he gained broad support from both Kyrgyz and ethnic-Russian voters and the southern opposition leaders realise that in order to capture power they will need a leader who can appeal to the south and the north alike; only Kulov really has any chances of successfully achieving this. However, many elements within the powerful business elite in Bishkek are highly concerned by an re-invigorated Kulov and may attempt to scupper his plans.

Kurmanbek Bakiyev: The interim President and Prime Minister has remained the most prominent opposition throughout the protests as the leader of the People's Movement, former prime minister and the leader of the opposition unified coordinating council. As a southerner, he can rely on the support of a number of moderate middle class people from the region, while the facts that his wife is Russian and that he served in the administration will improve his credentials with the north. Nevertheless, while possessing personal charisma, he is a hopeless orator and is tainted through his connection to the Aksy incident in 2002, when the authorities opened fire on demonstrators, leaving five dead. 

Rosa Otunbaeva: Otunbaeva has become a well-known figure in the west, having served as ambassador to the United Kingdom, but for all her impressive qualities she is not as renowned as other opposition figures in Kyrgyzstan.

A number of consensus candidates would be acceptable to the old regime and backed by powerful businessmen such as Tashkul Kereksizov, one of the richest men in Kyrgyzstan who remained close to the Akayev family for a number of years. The most obvious choice would be Misir Ashirkulov, who reportedly fled Kyrgyzstan last year in fear of his life. Formerly head of the Security Service and a close confidant of Akayev, Ashirkulov was removed from his post in May 2004 after allegedly falling foul of Akayev. While acceptable to those business elites in Bishkek, Ashirkulov also acted as a channel for opposition disquiet and was always in avoidance of dialogue with the opposition.

Outlook and Implications

As the dust begins to settle on events in Kyrgyzstan there will be many who believe that Kyrgyzstan has entered a new dawn. Nevertheless, many problems still exist for the political elite. In the short term, the fact remains that the crowds, not the opposition, have led the anti-government protests, with Otunbaeva and Bakiyev trailing in their wake. They have not formulated any specific demands on the regime or programme of action and this is largely due to President Akayev's deliberate policy of co-opting and dividing the opposition. Consequently, unlike Georgia or Ukraine where there was a party tradition and a clear opposition goal, in Kyrgyzstan the opposition are not unified and cannot speak to the country, let alone the remaining security services, as one. Many powerful sections of society have been excluded from yesterday's events in Bishkek and will continue to actively oppose the opposition. There are many cleavages within Kyrgyz society, between north and south and urban and rural, and many in Bishkek believe that the protests were more a reflection from the south of the economic downturn in their fortunes rather than a direct reaction to the widespread electoral fraud. In contrast, the middle classes in Bishkek, despite the pervasive corruption and cronyism, have benefited from some liberal policies and foreign investment and will not accept any redistributive programme.