Global Insight Perspective
Significance	Abdullah Gul has been elected by a strong parliamentary majority of deputies from the ruling Justice and Development (AK) party, despite the clear opposition of the military to a candidate they see as a threat to the secular foundations of the state.
Implications	Congratulations flooded in with Gul's reputation established through his international affairs expertise and domestic popularity. However, the military set the tone for confrontation in the coming days with a statement preceding the election and a refusal to participate in the swearing-in ceremonies.
Outlook	Overt action by the military is unlikely now, but the coming months will see a strained accommodation with the new executive. AK refused to compromise on its presidential candidate, but could still aim for a more consensual style of politics as evidenced by the election of Koksal Toptan as speaker earlier this month, and will recognise the need to get back on track with economic reforms or risk its reputation.
Risk Ratings	Gul's election is a chance for further progress and stability for Turkey, but to consolidate this, input and encouragement are needed, particularly from the European Union. Gul must now act as head of state, rather than as an agent of AK; so far, it seems this is his intention.

At yesterday's swearing-in ceremony boycotted by top military figures, eleventh president Abdullah Gul promised to act with impartiality as president and to uphold human rights and democracy. For the ruling Justice and Development (AK), Gul's election marked the culmination of months of struggle to elect a successor to President Ahmet Necdet Sezer. Parliamentary elections were won overwhelmingly by the party, providing the momentum to re-nominate Foreign Minister Gul. He was only elected in the third round with 339 votes in the 550-seat house, where a simple majority is required rather than a constitutional one, easily beating two rivals; the National Movement Party's (MHP) Sahabatin Cakmakolgu with 70 votes and the Democratic Left Party's (DSP) Huseyin Tayful Icli, who gained 13 votes. The main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) continued to boycott the vote, angered that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan had not put forward a consensus candidate as had been promised prior to the elections. Who that candidate could have been is difficult to say.

Gul's election will increase both Turkish stability and risk, but as he takes office, several controversies remain. Gul is the acceptable face of AK in that he has strong and varied international ties, and is respected in academic and in diplomatic circles. However, to the secularists, he represents a threat to the foundations of the modern Turkish state. Although there is a growing tendency towards amending and updating Ataturk's 1923 state, its foundations remain crucial to many members of the electorate as well as the military and judicial establishment.

Although the president's role is largely ceremonial, it has been argued that staunch secularist Sezer acted as a check on AK, with a record number of vetoes and constitutional referrals. Not all of these were impartial decisions, but many were seen as important counterweights. In addition, even though countries such as France have a ruling party controlling the executive and legislature, and the tradition of parties with religious foundations from Catholicism to Christian Democracy is strong across Europe, AK's moderate Islamism has drawn concerns. AK believes it is being judged unfairly, with its economic record and successful first term being bushed aside by critics. The lack of support for Gul among other parties is a concern, although this is largely a product of the ineffectiveness of opposition parties compared to AK, and their protests were directed at AK, rather than Gul.

If anything, faults lie with the Turkish political system, not AK. Ten years ago, the military dispatched the government after a decade of short-lived administrations and a proliferation of smaller parties had removed the option of a strong government. Ten years on and Turkey has witnessed the unprecedented re-election of a government with the added bonus of a real gain in voter numbers. After the opposition challenged the election of a president by the outgoing parliament, Gul was elected by the ranks of the new administration.

Critics complain of a lack of democracy, however, after the electorate expressed their feelings in clear numbers. Now as many as 85% of the electorate will be represented in parliament, compared to less than half in 2002. This clear improvement is not to brush aside concerns over Islamism creeping into state organs, or to accept that AK has no agenda. However, the government and Gul will be under intense scrutiny at home and abroad. Although the July elections were a clear expression of public interest, there is a significant and strong minority that may not support the military now, but could be mobilised to do so in the future if AK does not deliver on the economy and reforms, improving living standards and defending democracy.

Outlook and Implications: Is There a Military Threat?

The military leadership is ageing and its recent comments have been out of line with general sentiment. In addition, it has been pointed out that the military speaks for a more hardline younger generation coming through the ranks, with any doubters whittled away by the annual cull of reactionaries or Islamists. However, the current military stance should be taken with two disclaimers; first, its waning power over recent decades, and secondly, the fact that over the last five years military power has diminished rapidly and uncontrollably. It was clear from the start that AK and the military leadership were never going to be happy bedfellows, and the next few months will see warning shots fired by both sides. In practical terms, this will mean strict enforcement of the secular code; Gul's wife will not see the inside of a public building while sporting her headscarf, and the military top brass will not grace official gatherings unless expressly required. They were absent from yesterday's ceremony, as well as from the opening of parliament. The threat of a coup is minimal though, with the reactionary, rather than proactive, stance of the military distasteful to most. Instead, the military will use the current situation to lobby for modernisation and funds while underscoring the continued threat from rebels and their need to deal with it. There is certainly public support for this.

And the EU Card?

European Union (EU) membership is at best ten years away and bloc-membership incentives have produced one of the most fruitful periods of reform seen in Turkey. The EU has a chance to pull Turkey back into the fold if it acts with encouragement that has been already displayed by European Commission President Jose Manuel Durao Barroso following the election. Gul is not the chief negotiator; current Economy Minister and likely future foreign minister Ali Babacan holds this role. He is one of a handful of Western-educated reformists who will keep the government on track. Gul's role is a ceremonial and formal one, building on relations made during his time in foreign affairs posts.

Gul can help through leadership and efforts to promote Turkey's EU-oriented path; the EU for its part would benefit from the Turkish economic, demographic and military input. However, Turkey may also choose to only nominally put reforms into practice, exploring its options to the east, and with its geographic neighbours. It may also choose a more introspective path and correct some domestic complaints over unemployment and living standards, as well as investing in education and infrastructure to meet its goal of becoming a regional energy hub.

Turkey will be largely focused on internal issues in the coming months. The military and executive will be dancing steps to ascertain the new power balance. In order to maintain its strong reputation on the economy, AK must pull back some of the slack created by the usual pre-election softening of the fiscal stance, put privatisation tenders back on the table for assets such as electricity distribution networks and ensure that inflation remains in single digits. Overcoming recent problems related to adverse weather conditions and droughts, water and utility shortages will be a short-term problem shared by central and municipal governments. Central government has the task of developing infrastructure to ensure a repeat does not occur. Gul, meanwhile has to begin work to prove he will be a truly impartial national representative. Practically, the first steps are for Prime Minister Erdogan to gain approval from Gul for the new cabinet line-up, and to confirm the 21 October referendum on direct election of the president and shortening the executive and legislative terms.