The peace prize announcement is due on Friday, so he doesn't have long to wait to learn if he has pulled off a unique grand slam for 2007: an Oscar, an Emmy, a bestseller and a Nobel. It would vault him once again back into the center of speculation about whether he might jump into the presidential race or, short of that, bestow his blessings on one of the Democratic candidates.

His associates were quick to tamp down again on all the speculation that has been building this week, starting with suggestions that he may be truly in the running to win the Nobel Prize. A great honor, they say, but not something that anyone around him expects to happen.

"As for the Nobel Peace Prize, [there] are 180-plus wonderful nominees and we expect tomorrow to be another day of working on the climate crisis," Gore spokeswoman Kalee Kreider said in an email message.

But say for the sake of argument that they're all wrong, that Gore becomes the first American since Jimmy Carter to win the prize. The hype machine would be in overdrive. Even then, those close to him say, there is little likelihood that it would have any effect on his posture about running in 2008.

"My read is that it will not impact his decision either way," Carter Eskew, a long-time Gore adviser, said in response to an email question. "His mind is trained on solving the global climate crisis; it really is. He's much more likely to view a possible Nobel through that prism than through a campaign for president."

Michael Feldman, another Gore adviser, said a Nobel likely would help advance the cause of dealing with climate change more than it will prompt Gore to look seriously at running. "There's a lot of things swirling around but he is basically in the same place," Feldman said in an email. "He is not planning a campaign and continues to spend as much discretionary time as he can trying to solve the climate crisis."

All of Gore's body language and every answer he has given to questions about running have been to discourage the idea that he would become a candidate. But for whatever reason, he has declined to make a definitive statement taking himself out of the running.

Only he knows the reason for that. Is it just to play with the press and the political community and then revel in the absurdity of all the speculation or is it because he actually believes there might be a set of events that would make is possible for him to run and win?

The logic behind a Gore candidacy has diminished since the movie "An Inconvenient Truth" won the Oscar last spring. Instead of a muddled Democratic race, Hillary Clinton has solidified her status as the party's front-runner. Had she run into stronger resistance within the party, the pressure on Gore to jump in might have genuinely increased. To jump in now would be to risk a direct clash. Gore seems to smart for that.

But what about an endorsement? One line of argument has been that Gore still harbors resentment toward the Clintons and believes that the former president's misdeeds contributed to his failure to win the White House in 2000. And that because she backed the resolution authorizing the Iraq war in 2002 and never renounced the vote, Gore would be inclined to lend his support to someone who either opposed it (Barack Obama) or recanted his vote (John Edwards).

When asked about an endorsement, Gore has said he is not sure what he will do -- once again keeping things deliberately vague and leaving his intentions open to speculation. The adviser to one of the Democratic candidates put the odds at no better than one-third that Gore would endorse someone before the primaries. And given the impact his endorsement of Howard Dean had in late 2003, he no doubt would think twice about putting his prestige on the line for one of Clinton's challengers.

Could he endorse Clinton? Given the belief that there is still a tenuous relationship between Gore and the Clintons, that would seem unlikely. But perhaps the experts are wrong -- perhaps there is mutual respect between Gore and the former first lady. In that case, he might clamber aboard her campaign.

All of this is to say that Gore remains a magnet for speculation, but that a change of course in his life still seems a dubious proposition. Could he have done more to advance the cause of dealing with climate change had he been in the White House? It's possible but not by much.

Still, if the United States awakes to the news Friday that Gore has won the Nobel, he will become the center of the political story once again -- and be forced yet again to demure -- but not to fully close the door -- on running.