Sidr, a Category 4 hurricane with wind velocity of 135 knots and a heading due north, is on a trajectory that will envelop the heavily populated southern coast before it moves on toward the capital, Dhaka. It is expected to make landfall sometime around midnight local time Nov. 16. Waters in the rivers flowing into the Bay of Bengal along parts of the southern coast already are rising to critical levels. Some 10 million of the country's 140 inhabitants live along this coast.

The vast majority of the population lives in the broad Ganges Delta, which sits at about 1 meter above sea level. The storm surge is likely to inundate everything within miles of the coast -- and the subsequent flooding is likely to be of biblical proportions.

In anticipation of the storm, Chittagong and Mongla ports suspended operations Nov. 14, and ships were relocated to safer areas. The airport at Chittagong has suspended flights and moved planes away. All educational institutions in Chittagong and other towns in the storm's path have been shut down and fishing trawlers have been asked to return to port immediately.

Although massive evacuations and other precautionary measures are under way, Bangladesh is looking at large-scale death and destruction. The country has very weak infrastructure, is densely populated and most of the land is less than 1 meter above sea level. Then there is extreme poverty.

This is why the army-backed interim government could be overwhelmed by the disastrous effects of the storm. While Chittagong, the country's main port, does not lie in the storm's path, the other port that serves western Bangladesh, Mongla, does. Flooding at Chittagong, however, will likely have larger ramifications than a major storm impact at Mongla, which is a dying port that sometimes remains vacant for weeks.

Textile production is Bangladesh's economic lifeline, given that textile exports make up three-quarters of the country's more than $12 billion in annual export earnings. Since Dhaka will be submerged, the textile plants will be hit. Although regenerating textile infrastructure is fairly easy, in this case, the issue will be rebuilding, not repairing.

The impact from a supply risk management point of view likely will be a delay in shipments of goods. Because Bangladesh is a storm-prone country, its ports and other infrastructure are designed so they can be brought back on line quickly, although the lack of technology and well-coordinated operations could force some delays.