Evo Morales, the newly elected president of Bolivia, said late Dec. 20 that he would implement policies to regulate coca cultivation, and would only allow lawful uses of coca.

Morales' words appear to represent a sharp departure from his campaign platform, which emphasized legalizing coca growing as a means of generating income for poor farmers. By placing conditions on coca farming, Morales is trying to ease international fears that Bolivian coca production will undermine anti-drug efforts. But Morales' moves probably will fail to convince his international audience.

The United States has long been worried about Morales' socialist stance, his pledges to legalize coca farming, and his desire to become a "nightmare" for Washington. Morales, however, is savvy enough to understand that governing Bolivia requires the consent of many groups, both internal and external. To this end, Morales is therefore slowly indicating he might not develop into the ardent socialist and anti-American he vowed to become. Ultimately, Morales will placate the United States on certain issues to keep aid flowing into Bolivia. Even so, he will probably avoid barbeques in Crawford.

Cooperation in the drug trade represents one area in which Morales can maintain international aid from the United States, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Accordingly, Morales will likely allow a minimum number of Drug Enforcement Administration agents to remain in Bolivia. He will also allow the United States to destroy certain coca fields. Nevertheless, the president-elect understands his reliance for electoral support on poor and indigenous groups, which constitute his primary voting block.

Morales could adopt a policy similar to the Afghan government vis-à-vis poppy cultivation. Poppy cultivation is permitted in the territory of Afghan warlords cooperating with the U.S.-led coalition and Afghan government's efforts against al Qaeda and the Taliban, and the proceeds from those fields are taxed. By similarly allowing certain farmers to cash in on the lucrative cocaine crop, Morales can count on such farmers' continued support.

Bolivian cocaine production undoubtedly will increase despite Morales' pledge to limit coca production to legal uses. Bolivia can only sell so much traditional medicine and tea made of coca before people turn to the more lucrative job of providing leaves to cocaine producers. Morales will respond by emphasizing that such misused coca was grown illegally, outside of his control. Moreover, a reduction of U.S. drug eradication efforts in the region can also be blamed for the increase in coca. It is doubtful that such responses would appease Washington, however, and a drop in the price of cocaine stemming from a glut of coca in the Andean region will create headaches for Washington.

Morales' recent moves thus represent an effort to mitigate international concern before aid to Bolivia is discontinued or pressure is applied to Bolivia, while simultaneously trying to offer Bolivians a means of supporting themselves. The president-elect's coca policies, however, will probably fail to convince his external audience.