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Economia y Finanzas  
 
15/09/2011 | US - The jobs plan. From deficits to jobs, and back

The Economist Staff

Republicans and the deficit stand in the way of a new stimulus package.

 

AMERICA’S political priorities have undergone a breathtaking about-turn. In early August Barack Obama and Congress were consumed by fears about deficits, eventually making a deal to cut more than $2 trillion dollars from the budget over the coming decade.

By the time Mr Obama spoke to Congress on September 8th, though, the deficit had taken a back seat to job creation. Mr Obama proposed a $447 billion plan which, he said, would keep the economy from dipping back into recession. Republican leaders promised their help in the hunt for “long-term, sustainable jobs”. Both sides have good reason to change their tune. After pushing the country to the brink of default before last month’s debt deal, the Republicans in Congress have seen their approval ratings plunge. Mr Obama’s political fortunes, meanwhile, have followed the economy’s southward.

Without intervening action, fiscal policy is on course to make matters worse. The August debt deal, the fading impact of Mr Obama’s original $830 billion stimulus, the expiry of a further $200 billion in support added last December and surprisingly strong tax collections this year all point to a fiscal squeeze, totalling perhaps 2% of GDP, next year, which could easily knock the economy back into recession.

Mr Obama’s plan would neutralise that hit (see table). He would extend an employee payroll-tax cut due to expire in December and expand it to 3.1% of wages from 2%. He would also cut the employer’s share of the payroll tax, with larger cuts for those who boost net payrolls or raise wages. He would let the unemployed continue to collect benefits for up to 99 weeks, and wisely funnel some unemployment-insurance money into retraining and subsidies for hiring the long-term unemployed. He would also plough some $140 billion into aid to keep teachers, police officers and firefighters employed, to rehabilitate schools, and to build infrastructure. Macroeconomic Advisers, a consultancy, reckons that the plan, if fully implemented, would boost GDP by 1.25% next year and employment by 1.3m.

Full implementation, though, is not going to happen. The common ground of which Republicans speak so warmly is precariously small: passage of free-trade deals, reduced red tape for small business, and tweaks to how unemployment insurance and infrastructure money is doled out. Some Republicans could also support the payroll-tax cuts.

The bigger obstacle is the deficit. For all the change in focus, Mr Obama’s jobs proposal is still hostage to it. On September 12th Jack Lew, his budget director, suggested paying for the plan with $467 billion-worth of tax increases over the coming decade, the largest of which would limit tax deductions for the affluent. Mr Obama has failed to get these ideas enacted before, even when Democrats controlled Congress. The odds are hardly better with Republicans running the House. Mr Lew said the alternative would be to increase the deficit reduction now being sought by Congress’s “supercommittee”, created under last month’s debt deal. Its target of $1.2 trillion-$1.5 trillion was already a stretch; raising it by almost a third will only make the supercommittee’s job harder.

Mr Obama has promised to deliver his own deficit-reduction plans to the committee on September 19th. These may not just raise taxes but reform entitlements, notably Medicare and Medicaid, the federal health plans for the elderly and poor. Although he has previously explored such a “grand bargain” privately, he has never before laid out a credible formal plan for one. If he does so now, his own supporters will object. For the moment, fiscal policy seems unlikely to deliver the two things America needs most from it: near-term stimulus and long-term reform.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House