Inteligencia y Seguridad Frente Externo En Profundidad Economia y Finanzas Transparencia
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Frente Externo  
 
24/05/2008 | Still unresolved

The Economist Staff

Is Hillary Clinton still campaigning to be the presidential nominee, or for something else?

 

ON TUESDAY May 20th, as expected, two states produced a split decision in America's Democratic primaries. Kentucky voted for Hillary Clinton, by a stonking 35-point margin. Barack Obama won in Oregon, by a smaller but still impressive margin. Both candidates planned to campaign next in Florida, a big, swing state.

Mr Obama wants to pull the state his way in November's general election, when he expects to be the Democratic nominee against John McCain. Mrs Clinton, by contrast, wants to highlight the fact that Florida's delegates were stripped because the state voted too early for Democratic Party rules. Because a majority of Floridians voted for her anyway, she is trying to reinstate the state's delegates, and somehow cling to the notion that she can win the nomination.

What is she playing at? After Tuesday, Mr Obama’s commanding lead has been further cemented, despite Kentucky. He has finally secured a majority of pledged delegates (not including Florida and Michigan). Although he did not explicitly declare victory in the campaign, he is all but there, with just three primaries to come. He calls the nomination “within reach”. Mrs Clinton invoked Florida in her victory speech, along with another state, Michigan (which also voted for her, mainly because Mr Obama took his name off the ballot after it too broke party rules by voting early). She implies that if only their delegates are seated, the race looks different. It does not. If she does well in the final contests, and counts the disputed Florida and Michigan votes, she may come out with a popular-vote lead over Mr Obama. But even with those states she would lack delegates.

To overcome her rival she would have to convince a vast majority of the remaining 180 or so uncommitted party-insider superdelgates to overturn the big pledged-delegate lead that Mr Obama has built. That, too, looks unlikely. Ever since primaries two weeks ago in North Carolina and Indiana, superdelegates have been breaking heavily in his favour. That seems unlikely to change.

One theory is that Mrs Clinton is playing her cards to get the vice-presidency. This would be her best shot at becoming the first woman president: after eight years of serving as Mr Obama's second. She may have hinted at that, speaking of party unity and saying that she and Mr Obama saw “eye to eye” about beating John McCain, even as they stood “toe to toe” battling each other.

Mr Obama, presumably, would not be especially keen to pick her. She has done well among working-class white Democrats in the Appalachian mountains, who may break for Mr McCain in the autumn. But another vice-president might do just as well. Names bandied about include Jim Webb, a Vietnam-veteran senator and critic of the Iraq war from Virginia, or Sam Nunn, a conservative former senator from Georgia and expert on nuclear proliferation. Neither would be as likely as Mrs Clinton, and her husband, to distract from the nominee's message of change.

Another possibility is that she has her eye on becoming the Senate majority leader, a prize that she might expect after her strong showing this year, in exchange for bowing out.

But some of her foes think she has more sinister aims. Besides talk of unity, she took a few shots at Mr Obama in her Kentucky speech, implying that she was best positioned to win in November. Perhaps she is preparing herself, in the case of Mr Obama being defeated by Mr McCain, to seek the presidency in 2012. She would be well positioned, having run a long and strong race, to take on an elderly President McCain (he would be 76), or to rival a weaker non-incumbent.

For now, at least, Mr Obama is sanguine. He gave a confident speech in Iowa, repeating calls for hopeful change and taking a few harder-edged shots at Mr McCain. He is in general-election mode, trading barbs with the Republicans over the wisdom of negotiating with dictators. He even complimented Mrs Clinton, saying “we all admire her courage, her commitment and her perseverance.” Such admiration will fade, however, if her perserverance comes to look more like sabotage.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House