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01/05/2011 | China's census - Older and wiser?

The Economist Staff

THE publication of preliminary data from China’s census last year shows that an extraordinary demographic transition is under way. The population is still massive, and larger than any other country’s, at 1.34 billion. But the population is growing slower than when it was last counted, in 2000, and ageing faster. China is still likely to be the first country to grow old before it gets rich.

 

Three decades of the one-child policy have seen the population growth rate and the total fertility rate (the number of children an average woman can expect to have in her lifetime) fall steadily. The average annual population growth from 2001-10 was 0.57%, just over half the rate from 1991-2000. 

The total fertility rate is contentious. In both 2000 and 2010 it was estimated at about 1.8%, reflecting widespread breaches of the one-child policy. It has anyway never been a universal policy. Families in the countryside were allowed a second child if the first was a girl. Ethnic minorities were allowed more. More recently, couples who are both single children themselves have been allowed more than one child. 

If the rules were followed nationwide, the fertility rate would be about 1.5; some demographers believe that 1.8 is in fact an overestimate. Even if it is not, it implies that China’s work force will in a few years start declining, and the “dependency” ratio—the proportion of the population made up of the young and elderly—will start to climb. Already, the proportion of people aged over 60 has increased from 10.4% in 2000 to 13.3% now. Those under 16 now make up 16.6% of the total, down from 23% in 2000.

This shift has led some to call for an end to the one-child policy, or at least for further easing. The government, which credits the policy with having “averted” 400m births, insists it will stay. But a few days ago, Hu Jintao, the Communist Party leader, said China will “uphold and improve” the present policies. To some, that implied flexibility.

Even if the policy were to be relaxed, China would still be scrambling to cope with the changing shape of its population. The census highlights the urgency of efforts to restructure the economy, away from a dependence on growth led by investment and labour-intensive manufacturing for export. But the aim—an economy more reliant on domestic consumption—is made harder to achieve by an ageing population, worried about its health and security in its dotage.

It is not certain that population growth would shoot up if restrictions were eased. The six richest places in Asia (Hong Kong, Japan, Macau, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan) have the lowest fertility rates in the world, despite concerted efforts by some of their governments to encourage bigger families. 

Nor will it be easy to correct the sex imbalance the one-child policy has exacerbated. The census estimates the number of boys born for every 100 girls at 118.6, up from 116.9 in 2000. This is the result of sex-selective abortion—female feticide on an extraordinary scale. In fact however the overall sex imbalance has moderated in the past decade. There are now 105.2 men for every woman, compared with 106.7 in 2000. The discrepancy may reflect inaccuracies, as well as women’s longer life expectancy.

Two other comparisons testify to the wrenching social change China is experiencing. Just under half the population now lives in cities, compared with 36.1% in 2000. And the number of migrant workers has increased from 121m to 221.4m. One in six of China’s population is working away from their registered home.

China’s leaders often seem obsessed with the threat of unrest, and the necessity of stability. Looking at the bare statistics revealed by this census is not going to help them sleep any easier.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House