That prediction, of course, could not have been more shortsighted. During the past decade, Turkey has become the rising power in Europe, arguably the world’s most influential Muslim country and a dynamic inspiration for young Arab reformers. Turkey is the only European country that has grown in power since the financial crisis and the start of the Arab uprisings. While European economic fortunes have contracted, Turkey has one of the fastest growing global economies. Turkey may even now be more powerful in the Middle East than Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. This is all supremely ironic for a country long excluded from positions of power in NATO and which has had the door to the European Union slammed shut in recent years.

Turkey’s rise has been engineered by its brilliant, proud, and often prickly prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. A devout Muslim, Erdogan has revolutionized Turkish politics by challenging his country’s historic commitment to secularism and introducing a greater role for Islam in Turkish politics. Under his leadership, Turkey was, for a time, the only country that managed decent relations with all the regional powers, including Israel, Iran, Iraq, and Syria. Long a geographic bridge between East and West, Turkey under Erdogan became the go-to marriage counselor in the violent and unstable Middle East — mediating secret talks between Israel and Syria, building a close strategic relationship with the Israelis, and nudging Iran to be more reasonable on the nuclear issue.

During the last two years, however, Erdogan has shifted dramatically from honest broker to a more aggressive, independent, and often unpredictable course — breaking relations with Israel over the Palestinian issue, spurning the Europeans, and, most surprisingly this year, turning his back on his former friend, Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad and calling openly for revolution against his regime.