Mounting protectionism and the rule-breaking admission of Venezuela have fatally undermined a once-promising trade block.
IT WAS such
a good idea. In 1991 Brazil and Argentina set aside decades of rivalry and,
together with smaller Uruguay and Paraguay, founded Mercosur as a would-be
common market. The project went hand-in-hand with a broader opening of
inward-looking economies. Diplomats got to work on harmonising trade rules.
Cross-border trade and investment boomed.
Yet
Mercosur, like the European Union (EU) on which it was modelled, ran into
difficulties. Brazil’s devaluation in 1999 caused Argentina to seek, and
obtain, emergency restraints on imports from there. Politically negotiated
exceptions to the block’s rules became the norm. Nevertheless, a
dispute-settlement body and a small secretariat were eventually set up. In 2010
the presidents finally agreed on a common customs code, to avoid outside goods
having to pay tariffs more than once.
But under
left-wing governments, Brazil and—especially—Argentina have become more
protectionist. They have come to see Mercosur as a fortress, rather than a
bridge: outside South America, the only trade deals concluded by the block in
the past decade were with Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Negotiations
with the EU, begun in 1999, have languished. Although intra-Mercosur trade has
continued to rise in absolute terms, it represents a much smaller share of each
member’s total exports than at its peak in 1997 (see chart). That is partly
because the commodity boom has lifted the group’s exports to the rest of the
world. But it also because Mercosur has not evolved into the seamless single
market its founders dreamed of.
Since
January 2011 Argentina has increased (to 600) the items for which import
licences are not automatic—a measure accepted by the World Trade Organisation
(WTO) that allows countries to detain imports for up to 60 days. Exporters to
Argentina complain that the delays are even longer. Since February, it has required
importers to swear an affidavit with the tax agency before ordering goods. That
has prompted a host of complaints against Argentina at the WTO. Its Mercosur
partners have not been exempted: so far this year, Brazil’s exports to
Argentina are down 15% on the same period in 2011, while Uruguay’s are down by
10%. Brazil has responded by imposing some barriers on Argentine exports.
Mercosur
now faces a new, self-inflicted, problem—one that could potentially break it
apart. Meeting on June 29th in Mendoza, Argentina, the presidents suspended
Paraguay for a year, following the lightning impeachment the previous week of
Fernando Lugo, the country’s left-wing president. His ousting, by 39 votes to
four in the Senate, was abrupt and misguided—but constitutional. Nevertheless,
the others decided it offended Mercosur’s “democracy clause”. They went on to
admit Hugo Chávez’s Venezuela as a full member of the group; Venezuela’s
application had been held up for years because Paraguay’s Senate had refused to
approve it.
Violating
due process
All this
was legally questionable. Mercosur’s rules require decisions to be unanimous,
with all members given a fair hearing. The envoy of Paraguay’s new government
was turned away in Mendoza. Its foreign ministry denounced the suspension as
“not only illegal but illegitimate and in violation of due process”. Bernadino
Hugo Saguier, the country’s ambassador to the Organisation of American States,
said: “if we took a poll, 90% of Paraguayans would vote to quit” Mercosur.
What makes
these decisions more perverse is that Venezuela’s democracy is as flawed as
Paraguay’s, albeit in different ways. Mercosur was set up to be a group of
liberal democracies advancing free trade in South America. Mr Chávez is
unenthusiastic about these causes. He has variously called for a “new
Mercosur”, with a dose of “political Viagra” that would “decontaminate
neoliberalism” in the block, and instead “prioritise social concerns”.
Although Mr
Chávez agreed in principle to adopt Mercosur’s common external tariff, his
government has yet to implement this—or indeed any but one of the 131 formal
decisions taken by the block so far, according to Paulo Roberto de Almeida, a
dissident Brazilian diplomat. Under Mr Chávez, the state has taken over many
industries, and non-oil exports have shrivelled. But Venezuela’s oil wealth has
offered opportunities to Argentine and Brazilian companies, especially in
government contracts. Its entry is of “strategic interest” to Mercosur,
Brazil’s foreign minister, Antonio Patriota, said this week.
To a
greater or lesser extent, the governments of Brazil and Argentina share Mr
Chávez’s view that Mercosur should primarily serve the cause of political
union, and act as a rival project to what they see as the free-trade agenda of
the United States in Latin America. “The founding idea that Mercosur would be
an instrument of trade liberalisation has disappeared,” says Rubens Barbosa, a
former Brazilian diplomat involved in the block’s creation. “What we have today
is a political and social forum, and micromanagement of trade.”
The
decision to admit Venezuela is already prompting buyer’s remorse. Uruguay’s
vice-president, Danilo Astori, called it perhaps the most serious
“institutional wound” in Mercosur’s history; the country’s foreign minister
also criticised the way the decision was taken.
Turning
Mercosur into a political union has in practice meant that its decisions are
based on the preferences of the current left-of-centre governments, rather than
on long-term national interest. It also means that it is hard to spot the
difference between Mercosur and the South American Union, a broader but
shallower group.
This is a
costly moment for Mercosur to neglect its primary purpose. In June Brazil’s
seasonally adjusted trade fell into deficit for the first time since 2000, says
GlobalSource Partners, a consultancy. The commodity boom looks to be drawing to
a close. Credit growth is slowing; retail sales fell in May (see article). Brazil’s manufacturers are losing markets to
China.
The
fastest-growing part of South America is the free-trading Pacific countries
(Chile, Colombia, and Peru), which have shunned full membership of Mercosur.
Brazil has chosen as its main allies protectionist Argentina and Venezuela,
which practises an archaic state socialism. To revive economic growth, Brazil
needs to put more stress on competitiveness and market-opening trade diplomacy.
Mercosur once aspired to do precisely that. A group that now consists of little
more than bear-hugs and kisses amongcompañeros serves little
purpose in a harsher world.
** http://www.economist.com/node/21558609
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