A Rand Report found that the Iraq Army has been progressing rapidly towards proficiency, but that such progress seems associated with the presence of U.S. in a mentoring or partner capacity."The Iraqi Army could reach the 80-percent level of readiness or better by the end of 2011 if it continues to improve at this rate," the Rand Corp. said in a report to the Defense Department.
The report, titled "Withdrawing from Iraq: Alternative Schedules, Associated Risks, and Mitigating Strategies," said that by the end of 2008, two-thirds of the Iraq Army reached Tier 1 or Tier 2, defined as the upper levels of combat readiness. The remaining battalions were deemed Tier 3 and Tier 4, or units that required significant training.
Rand said the U.S. military presence would mark a key element in Iraqi security development. The report said the U.S. military must maintain its force of trainers, currently at more than 3,000 and divided into teams of 10.
"Iraqi Army units at Tier 1 or Tier 2 rely to some extent on being partnered with U.S. combat units," the report said. "The U.S. drawdown will affect both improving and sustaining readiness."
The report said the Iraq Army was advancing its combat forces toward independence from the United States. More than two-thirds of the army battalions were said to be capable of conducting operations with little or no assistance from the United States.
"The Joint Staff has estimated that the Iraqi Army can adequately maintain internal security provided that 80 percent of its units are at Tier 1 or Tier 2," Rand said. "During 2008, the number of Tier 1 or Tier 2 units increased at the rate of more than one battalion per month."
Iraq has more than 280,000 Iraqi soldiers and 370,000 police, hampered by deficiencies in logistics as well as airborne intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. The report said that continued improvement in Iraqi combat skills, infrastructure, and special operations battalions at a rate similar to that reported during 2008 "should permit the gradual drawdown of U.S. trainers, although the exact drawdown rate is not clear."
At the same time, the Iraqi police have significantly increased Tier 2 units between January 2007 and October 2008. But the report said overall police readiness was considerably lower.
"The data do not indicate a predictable rate of improvement that can be extrapolated through the end of 2011," the report said.
The report said few units of the Iraq Army or police possess the logistics, intelligence, and planning capacities required to operate on their own. The Iraq Army faces additional shortfalls in long-range fire and air support.
"The ISF still rely heavily on U.S. enablers," the report said. "They are only slowly starting to build their own capabilities in these areas."
