The report, released last week by the Rand Corporation, said China was increasing both the number and quality of its short-range ballistic missiles, around a thousand of which are deployed near the Taiwan Strait. The growing sophistication and accuracy of these missiles mean that by 2013, China would need to launch just 240 missiles to temporarily disable Taiwan's entire air force.

This, combined with the fact that Taiwan is much closer to China than the nearest US bases in Okinawa, Japan, means that the air war for Taiwan could “essentially be over before much of [the Taiwan and US] air forces have even fired a shot,” the report said. It added, however, that any Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan with ground troops could still likely be repelled by the Taiwanese army.